Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited $1.68, price $11.70, upside -85.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $1.68 · Strongly overvalued (−85.6%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +4.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!2.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers(7/10)
!Narrow moat42/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2324 – $20.33 · fair‑value band $1.39 – $2.07 · the $11.70 price screens above the $1.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Impala Platinum Holdings Limited engages in the mining, concentrating, refining, and sells of platinum group metals (PGMs) and associated base metals in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Canada. The company produces platinum, palladium, rhodium, nickel, and by-products, as well as ruthenium, iridium, and gold.
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Impala Platinum Holdings Limited engages in the mining, concentrating, refining, and sells of platinum group metals (PGMs) and associated base metals in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Canada. The company produces platinum, palladium, rhodium, nickel, and by-products, as well as ruthenium, iridium, and gold. It has mining operations on the Bushveld Complex located in South Africa; and the Great Dyke situated in Zimbabwe, as well as the Canadian Shield. The company was incorporated in 1957 and is based in Illovo, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF) currently trades at $11.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.68, 85.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.40 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $11.70 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.2900, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.39 (bear) to $2.07 (bull), the price of $11.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited reported revenue of 85.5B ZAR in FY2025 versus 130B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −9.9%/yr. Reported net income was 761M ZAR in FY2025, compounding −64.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.5B · P/E ratio 20.9 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.5600 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −86%, IMPUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.2900 to $7.56). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $1.39Fair Value $1.68Bull $2.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−44.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−47.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.5% a year for the price and +9.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (79 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−85.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.3% · Above median
Return on assets5.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)21.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth43.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)58· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.68 versus a price of $11.70, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IMPUF?
Our model-based fair value for Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is $1.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.70.
What is the quality score of IMPUF?
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.39, optimistic scenario $2.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Impala Platinum Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.68, about −86% upside versus a price of $11.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.39, optimistic scenario $2.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $104B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Impala Platinum Holdings Limited pay a dividend?
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Impala Platinum Holdings Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IMPUF use?
Our models discount Impala Platinum Holdings Limited at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Impala Platinum Holdings Limited that is +14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Impala Platinum Holdings Limited grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (+14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.85 %: that much free cash flow Impala Platinum Holdings Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Impala Platinum Holdings Limited it is $1.68 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $11.70. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Impala Platinum Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, IMPUF trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.70, fair value $1.68, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IMPUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.68). For Impala Platinum Holdings Limited the two are $10.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Impala Platinum Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Impala Platinum Holdings Limited at about $10.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $11.70; our models calculate a fair value of $1.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IMPUF?
Our models span a range for Impala Platinum Holdings Limited: cautious scenario $1.39, base $1.68, optimistic $2.07 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $11.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IMPUF?
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.68 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IMPUF from its 52-week high?
Impala Platinum Holdings Limited trades at $11.70, about 42% below its 52-week high of $20.33 and 23% above the low of $9.53 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Impala Platinum Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Impala Platinum Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $11.70, calculated fair value $1.68 (−86%), Quality Score 51/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IMPUF calculated?
We run Impala Platinum Holdings Limited through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Impala Platinum Holdings Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $11.70. Our model-based fair value is $1.68, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Impala Platinum Holdings Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
The market capitalisation of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is $10.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is 0.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
Earnings per share at Impala Platinum Holdings Limited are $0.5600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
The dividend yield of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is 2.9% (payout 60.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
The net margin of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is 17.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
The operating margin of Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
Revenue at Impala Platinum Holdings Limited is growing +43.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMPUF)?
Earnings per share at Impala Platinum Holdings Limited are growing +400% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026