Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Sibanye Stillwater Limited $4.58, price $2.53, upside +81.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7633 – $5.37 · fair‑value band $2.09 – $7.93 · the $2.53 price screens below the $4.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia. The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium; chrome; lithium; zinc; nickel; and silver, cobalt, and copper.
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Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia. The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, and ruthenium; chrome; lithium; zinc; nickel; and silver, cobalt, and copper. Sibanye Stillwater Limited was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Weltevredenpark, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF) currently trades at $2.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.58, implying the stock looks roughly 44.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $7.08 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the $2.53 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.5600, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.09 (bear) to $7.93 (bull), the price of $2.53 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Sibanye Stillwater Limited reported revenue of 129B ZAR in FY2025 versus 172B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −7.0%/yr. Reported net income was −5.1B ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.2B · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Net margin −4.0% · Return on equity −10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.6% · Operating margin 13.5% · Revenue (TTM) 130B ZAR.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 81%, SBYSF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.09Fair Value $4.58Bull $7.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.21/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.9% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
27.3% (2020) → 19.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.9% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (81 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Sibanye Stillwater Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+37.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−4.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth31.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)51.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.81× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.58 versus a price of $2.53, about +81% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SBYSF?
Our model-based fair value for Sibanye Stillwater Limited is $4.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.53.
What is the quality score of SBYSF?
Sibanye Stillwater Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.58 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.09, optimistic scenario $7.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sibanye Stillwater Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.58, about +81% upside versus a price of $2.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.09, optimistic scenario $7.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
Sibanye Stillwater Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 130B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sibanye Stillwater Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +35.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SBYSF use?
Our models discount Sibanye Stillwater Limited at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sibanye Stillwater Limited that is +35.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sibanye Stillwater Limited grew +0.2 % a year. The price currently implies +35.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sibanye Stillwater Limited (+35.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.52 %: that much free cash flow Sibanye Stillwater Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sibanye Stillwater Limited it is $4.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.53. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sibanye Stillwater Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SBYSF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.53, fair value $4.58, a gap of about +81% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SBYSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.58). For Sibanye Stillwater Limited the two are $2.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sibanye Stillwater Limited worth?
The market values Sibanye Stillwater Limited at about $7.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.53; our models calculate a fair value of $4.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SBYSF?
Our models span a range for Sibanye Stillwater Limited: cautious scenario $2.09, base $4.58, optimistic $7.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sibanye Stillwater Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −10.3%, debt of 0.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SBYSF from its 52-week high?
Sibanye Stillwater Limited trades at $2.53, about 53% below its 52-week high of $5.37 and 28% above the low of $1.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sibanye Stillwater Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., China Gold International Resources Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sibanye Stillwater Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.53, calculated fair value $4.58 (+81%), Quality Score 52/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SBYSF calculated?
We run Sibanye Stillwater Limited through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sibanye Stillwater Limited currently trades 45 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.53. Our model-based fair value is $4.58, about +81% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sibanye Stillwater Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.09 to $7.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Sibanye Stillwater Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
The market capitalisation of Sibanye Stillwater Limited is $7.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sibanye Stillwater Limited is 0.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
Earnings per share at Sibanye Stillwater Limited are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
The net margin of Sibanye Stillwater Limited is −4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sibanye Stillwater Limited is −10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sibanye Stillwater Limited is 17.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
The operating margin of Sibanye Stillwater Limited is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
Revenue at Sibanye Stillwater Limited is growing +31.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF)?
Earnings per share at Sibanye Stillwater Limited are growing −38.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBYSF) carry?
The net debt of Sibanye Stillwater Limited is 27.0B ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026