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Fresnillo plc (FRES) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 427B MXN

FP Fresnillo plc FRES · MX
Price579.75 MXN
Fair Value558.30 MXN
Upside-3.7%
Quality76/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 30.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.21% dividend yield
Wide moat 91/100
Evidence: Medium Range 418.77 MXN – 740.14 MXN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from 554.46 MXN to 558.30 MXN (+0.7%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −22.7% over the past month.

A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from 418.77 MXN (bear) to 740.14 MXN (bull), base 558.30 MXN. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 76/100 (high quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

1,054 MXN 87.59 MXN Fair Value 558.30 MXN Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 87.59 MXN – 1,054 MXN · fair‑value band 418.77 MXN – 740.14 MXN · the 579.75 MXN price screens above the 558.30 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

Fresnillo plc (FRES) currently trades at 579.75 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 558.30 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 3.7% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 76/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Fresnillo plc generated revenue of 4.6B MXN at a net margin of 30.3%. Revenue grew 30.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.9%. Net debt stands at 400M MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 418.77 MXN (bear case) to 740.14 MXN (bull case); at 579.75 MXN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -4%, FRES screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 558.45 MXN 987.88 MXN 1,769 MXN 80
Residual Income 191.01 MXN 248.38 MXN 1,444 MXN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 308.28 MXN 460.79 MXN 660.27 MXN 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 561.72 MXN 1,025 MXN 1,877 MXN 38
Owner Earnings 446.67 MXN 808.32 MXN 1,474 MXN 31
5Y Revenue Exit 308.28 MXN 459.30 MXN 655.36 MXN 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 550.12 MXN 961.71 MXN 1,481 MXN 41
5Y P/E Exit 467.18 MXN 789.29 MXN 1,158 MXN 38
10Y Revenue Exit 380.08 MXN 553.99 MXN 805.79 MXN 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 550.42 MXN 932.43 MXN 1,518 MXN 37
10Y P/E Exit 494.09 MXN 802.67 MXN 1,240 MXN 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 189.82 MXN 904.04 MXN 1,244 MXN 54
Lynch FV 240.50 MXN 343.66 MXN 446.82 MXN 50
PEG = 1.0 240.50 MXN 343.66 MXN 446.82 MXN 46
EPV 452.76 MXN 526.19 MXN 591.45 MXN 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 126.79 MXN 276.92 MXN 465.84 MXN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 126.79 MXN 226.83 MXN 288.51 MXN 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 418.73 MXN 558.30 MXN 697.88 MXN 63
P/S Multiple 172.57 MXN 229.95 MXN 287.47 MXN 58
P/B Multiple 210.33 MXN 280.34 MXN 350.50 MXN 55
EV/EBIT 660.71 MXN 868.66 MXN 1,077 MXN 53
EV/EBITDA 584.16 MXN 766.55 MXN 948.93 MXN 54
EV/Revenue 197.84 MXN 266.81 MXN 335.78 MXN 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 46.67 MXN 62.58 MXN 93.50 MXN 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 558.45 MXN 987.88 MXN 1,769 MXN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 308.28 MXN 460.79 MXN 660.27 MXN 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 191.01 MXN 248.38 MXN 1,444 MXN 76
ROIC Compounder 482.94 MXN 599.03 MXN 730.58 MXN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 368.04 MXN 525.75 MXN 683.46 MXN 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (802.67 MXN) versus Asset-Based (62.58 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 4.6B MXN
Revenue growth (YoY) +30.7%
Net margin 30.3%
Return on equity 33.9%
Free cash flow 1.9B MXN FY2025
P/E ratio 17.6
More key figures
Operating margin 54.7%
EPS (TTM) 32.93 MXN
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +1,490%
Net debt 400M MXN FY2023

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 76/100

Of which business quality 83 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 82
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 98
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Juanicipio. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates.

Full company description

Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Juanicipio. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates. Its projects include the Fresnillo silver mine located in the state of Zacatecas; Saucito mine situated in the state of Zacatecas; Ciénega mine located in the state of Durango; Herradura mine located in the state of Sonora; Noche Buena mine located in the state of Sonora; San Julián mine situated on the border of Chihuahua/Durango states; and Juanicipio mine located in the state of Zacatecas. The company also leases mining equipment; produces lead, silver and zinc concentrates and silver precipitates; produces gold/silver doré bars; mines projects; and provides exploration and administrative services. Fresnillo plc was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Fresnillo plc is a subsidiary of Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Fresnillo plc reported revenue of 4.6B MXN in FY2025 versus 2.7B MXN in FY2021, a compound +14.0%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B MXN in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 99/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
4.6B MXN
Latest YoY
+30.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+23.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+13.4%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y)
+9.0%
Revenue +14.0%/yr
FY21 2.7B MXN
FY22 2.4B MXN
FY23 2.7B MXN
FY24 3.5B MXN
FY25 4.6B MXN
Net income +34.6%/yr
FY21 421M MXN
FY22 272M MXN
FY23 234M MXN
FY24 141M MXN
FY25 1.4B MXN

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fresnillo plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FRES

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Fresnillo plc (FRES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 558.30 MXN versus a price of 579.75 MXN, about −4% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FRES?
Our model-based fair value for Fresnillo plc is 558.30 MXN (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 579.75 MXN.
What is the quality score of FRES?
Fresnillo plc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Fresnillo plc (FRES)?
Fresnillo plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.6B MXN (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FRES?
The net profit margin of Fresnillo plc is about 30.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Fresnillo plc pay a dividend?
Fresnillo plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.17% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 19, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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