Fresnillo PLC (FRES) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Fresnillo PLC stock £27.45, price £24.95, upside +10.0%, quality 88 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £3.96 – £43.05 · fair‑value band £20.58 – £34.45 · the £24.95 price screens below the £27.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Fresnillo plc mines, develops, and produces non-ferrous minerals in Mexico. It operates through seven segments: Fresnillo, Saucito, Ciénega, Herradura, Noche Buena, San Julián, and Juanicipio. The company primarily explores for silver, gold, lead, and zinc concentrates.
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Its projects include the Fresnillo silver mine located in the state of Zacatecas; Saucito mine situated in the state of Zacatecas; Ciénega mine located in the state of Durango; Herradura mine located in the state of Sonora; Noche Buena mine located in the state of Sonora; San Julián mine situated on the border of Chihuahua/Durango states; and Juanicipio mine located in the state of Zacatecas.
The company also leases mining equipment; produces lead, silver and zinc concentrates and silver precipitates; produces gold/silver doré bars; mines projects; and provides exploration and administrative services. Fresnillo plc was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Fresnillo plc is a subsidiary of Industrias Peñoles, S.A.B. de C.V.
Stock analysis
Fresnillo PLC (FRES) currently trades at £24.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £27.45, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £34.48 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the £24.95 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £10.63, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £20.58 (bear) to £34.45 (bull), the price of £24.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Fresnillo PLC reported revenue of $4.6B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +14.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.4B in FY2025, compounding +35.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £20.0B Large · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 3.28 · EPS (TTM) £2.31 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 30.7% · Return on equity 53.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 10%, FRES screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£20.58Fair Value £27.45Bull£34.45
Price £24.95 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£1.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30.4% vs 29.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 49%
2025 sits 504% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.1% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Scale benefits in silver-gold mining provide operational reach, yet limited pricing power, minimal differentiation and concentrated family control remain the core constraints on quality.
Main risk: Stricter Mexican mining laws on concessions, water use, indigenous consultations and permitting could delay or block expansions and raise compliance costs, squeezing output growth and margins at its Mexico-focused operations.
Bull case: By securing permits through pragmatic engagement and advancing its solar energy project alongside brownfield exploration, the company could maintain steady output and benefit from sustained industrial silver demand.
Bear case: If regulatory hurdles intensify and limit new concessions or expansions while dependence on the Peñoles group creates friction, production could stagnate and margins erode in a metals-price-sensitive business.
Fresnillo's third-quarter silver and gold output declined due to lower ore grades at mines including Juanicipio and Saucito, yet management reaffirmed full-year guidance and pointed to strong performance at the Fresnillo mine. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will ongoing efficiency efforts and operational discipline fully compensate for these grade challenges, or will constraints at key underground sites continue to weigh on volumes?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 99 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score88 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)53.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets19.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)38.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)63.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)74.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fresnillo PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FRES
Frequently asked questions
Is Fresnillo PLC (FRES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £27.45 versus a price of £24.95, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FRES?
Our model-based fair value for Fresnillo PLC is £27.45 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £24.95.
What is the quality score of FRES?
Fresnillo PLC has a Quality Score of 88/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £27.45 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £20.58, optimistic scenario £34.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fresnillo PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £27.45, about +10% upside versus a price of £24.95 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £20.58, optimistic scenario £34.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
Fresnillo PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Fresnillo PLC pay a dividend?
Fresnillo PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 4.48% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Fresnillo PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -1.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FRES use?
Our models discount Fresnillo PLC at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Fresnillo PLC that is -1.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Fresnillo PLC (FRES) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Fresnillo PLC grew +13.7 % a year. The price currently implies -1.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Fresnillo PLC (FRES) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Fresnillo PLC (-1.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.04 %: that much free cash flow Fresnillo PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fresnillo PLC it is £27.45 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of £24.95. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fresnillo PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FRES trades below its calculated fair value: price £24.95, fair value £27.45, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FRES?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£24.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£27.45). For Fresnillo PLC the two are £2.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fresnillo PLC worth?
The market values Fresnillo PLC at about £20.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is £24.95; our models calculate a fair value of £27.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FRES?
Our models span a range for Fresnillo PLC: cautious scenario £20.58, base £27.45, optimistic £34.45 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price £24.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FRES?
Fresnillo PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £27.45 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.3 (reported for FY2025: 17.8). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 25.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 5.8, P/S 4.5, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
What is the PEG ratio of FRES?
The PEG ratio of Fresnillo PLC is 1.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fresnillo PLC (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 53.0%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 88/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FRES from its 52-week high?
Fresnillo PLC trades at £24.95, about 42% below its 52-week high of £43.05 and 20% above the low of £20.77 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £27.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fresnillo PLC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, China Gold International Resources Corp, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fresnillo PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price £24.95, calculated fair value £27.45 (+10%), Quality Score 88/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FRES calculated?
We run Fresnillo PLC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £27.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Fresnillo PLC currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was £24.95. Our model-based fair value is £27.45, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fresnillo PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Fresnillo PLC (FRES) come from?
Earnings per share at Fresnillo PLC grew +12.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.5 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate +3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Fresnillo PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
The market capitalisation of Fresnillo PLC is £20.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Fresnillo PLC is 3.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
Earnings per share at Fresnillo PLC are £2.31 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
The dividend yield of Fresnillo PLC is 4.5% (payout 43.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 47.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
The net margin of Fresnillo PLC is 30.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fresnillo PLC is 53.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fresnillo PLC is 13.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
The operating margin of Fresnillo PLC is 63.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
Revenue at Fresnillo PLC is growing +74.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Fresnillo PLC (FRES)?
Earnings per share at Fresnillo PLC are growing +228% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Fresnillo PLC (FRES) hold?
Fresnillo PLC holds more cash than debt, $1.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026