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Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Indra Sistemas, S.A $58.68, price $65.07, upside -9.8%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN ES0118594417

IS Indra Sistemas, S.A logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Indra Sistemas, S.A

ISMAF · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $58.68 · Overvalued (−9.8%)
!Quality 49/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 59/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$73.15 $7.86 Fair Value $58.68 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.86 – $73.15 · fair‑value band $31.30 – $84.27 · the $65.07 price screens above the $58.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Indra Sistemas, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology services for the defense, aerospace, and advanced digital technologies sectors in Spain, Brazil, the rest of America, Italy, the rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through the Defense, Air Traffic, Mobility, and Minsait segments.

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Indra Sistemas, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology services for the defense, aerospace, and advanced digital technologies sectors in Spain, Brazil, the rest of America, Italy, the rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through the Defense, Air Traffic, Mobility, and Minsait segments. The company engages in the design, development, production, integration, and maintenance of systems, solutions, and services based on the use of information technologies, including computing, electronics, and communications. It also offers radars and radar systems, air defense systems, surveillance, security and unmanned vehicles, and shipboard systems for air and naval platforms; command and control systems, communications systems, and simulators; land military vehicles; unmanned aerial systems; satellite communication systems; air traffic management systems and equipment; air traffic control training services; and ticketing and tolling systems, information and control systems for multiple infrastructures and modes of transport, railway safety and signaling systems, and transport planning and consulting services. In addition, the company provides proprietary product solutions; implementation of third-party solutions; digital business services, including business consulting, cybersecurity, and advanced technologies; traditional information technology (IT) services, such as IT outsourcing, business process outsourcing, IT restructuring management, and user management; and technology solutions for the energy and industry, telecom and media, public administration and healthcare, and financial services. It offers its services to governments and public administrations under the Indra and Minsait brands. The company was formerly known as Experiencias Industriales S.A. and changed its name to Indra Sistemas, S.A. in 1993. Indra Sistemas, S.A. was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Alcobendas, Spain.

Stock analysis

Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF) currently trades at $65.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $58.68, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 10.9%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $57.70 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $65.07 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.59, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $31.30 (bear) to $84.27 (bull), the price of $65.07 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Indra Sistemas, S.A reported revenue of €5.5B in FY2025 versus €3.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was €436M in FY2025, compounding +32.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $11.4B · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 1.74 · EPS (TTM) $2.99 · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 26.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% · Operating margin 8.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at −10%, ISMAF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $31.30 Fair Value $58.68 Bull $84.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.26 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $23.89 $48.30 $88.82 76
Growth DCF $23.95 $47.15 $85.11 75
EPV $17.23 $21.83 $25.85 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $23.89 $48.30 $88.82 76
Owner Earnings $26.94 $53.54 $97.68 73
5Y Revenue Exit $21.24 $43.14 $72.19 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $35.33 $71.19 $115.26 73
5Y P/E Exit $36.85 $74.22 $115.88 69
10Y Revenue Exit $20.83 $41.64 $72.02 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $31.06 $61.80 $106.89 66
10Y P/E Exit $32.05 $63.97 $107.38 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $19.06 $77.79 $105.91 64
Lynch FV $19.51 $27.87 $36.22 61
PEG = 1.0 $19.51 $27.87 $36.22 57
EPV $17.23 $21.83 $25.85 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $58.87 $78.49 $98.12 63
P/S Multiple $35.74 $47.66 $59.57 58
P/B Multiple $35.74 $47.66 $59.57 55
EV/EBIT $51.05 $71.52 $91.98 66
EV/EBITDA $46.04 $64.84 $83.63 67
EV/Revenue $20.70 $34.00 $47.30 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.41 $8.59 $12.82 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $23.95 $47.15 $85.11 75
Rev-Margin DCF $21.24 $42.80 $69.57 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $17.43 $23.36 $42.29 73
ROIC Compounder $18.96 $28.81 $42.43 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $40.39 $57.70 $75.01 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+29.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 10%
2025 sits 111% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.8% a year for the price and +10.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+25.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+11.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+10.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+9.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.2%

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (50 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 467 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −12.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 26.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7.9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 16.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.30× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 5.58× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.93× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 29.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 20.2× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $219.93 $186.56 −15%
Accenture plc ACN $183.37 $305.06 +66%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,082 ₹2,993 +44%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹994.10 ₹1,691 +70%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,243 ₹1,926 +55%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $56.84 $138.62 +144%
Amadeus IT Group AMS €52.80 €65.98 +25%
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc BR $161.15 $159.88 −1%
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc FIS $33.35 $32.72 −2%
CDW Corporation CDW $129.71 $165.54 +28%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Indra Sistemas, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ISMAF

Frequently asked questions

Is Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $58.68 versus a price of $65.07, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ISMAF?
Our model-based fair value for Indra Sistemas, S.A is $58.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $65.07.
What is the quality score of ISMAF?
Indra Sistemas, S.A has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $58.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $31.30, optimistic scenario $84.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Indra Sistemas, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $58.68, about −10% upside versus a price of $65.07 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $31.30, optimistic scenario $84.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
Indra Sistemas, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Indra Sistemas, S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ISMAF use?
Our models discount Indra Sistemas, S.A at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Indra Sistemas, S.A that is +18.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Indra Sistemas, S.A grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies +18.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Indra Sistemas, S.A (+18.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.74 %: that much free cash flow Indra Sistemas, S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Indra Sistemas, S.A it is $58.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $65.07. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Indra Sistemas, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ISMAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $65.07, fair value $58.68, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ISMAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($65.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($58.68). For Indra Sistemas, S.A the two are $6.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Indra Sistemas, S.A worth?
The market values Indra Sistemas, S.A at about $11.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $65.07; our models calculate a fair value of $58.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ISMAF?
Our models span a range for Indra Sistemas, S.A: cautious scenario $31.30, base $58.68, optimistic $84.27 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $65.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ISMAF?
Indra Sistemas, S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $58.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.6, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 20.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Indra Sistemas, S.A (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 26.5%, debt of 1.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ISMAF from its 52-week high?
Indra Sistemas, S.A trades at $65.07, about 11% below its 52-week high of $73.15 and 61% above the low of $40.35 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $58.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Indra Sistemas, S.A?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Indra Sistemas, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $65.07, calculated fair value $58.68 (−10%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ISMAF calculated?
We run Indra Sistemas, S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $58.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Indra Sistemas, S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was $65.07. Our model-based fair value is $58.68, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Indra Sistemas, S.A right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($31.30 to $84.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Key figures of Indra Sistemas, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
The market capitalisation of Indra Sistemas, S.A is $11.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Indra Sistemas, S.A is 1.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
Earnings per share at Indra Sistemas, S.A are $2.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
The net margin of Indra Sistemas, S.A is 8.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Indra Sistemas, S.A is 26.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Indra Sistemas, S.A is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
The operating margin of Indra Sistemas, S.A is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
Revenue at Indra Sistemas, S.A is growing +16.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF)?
Earnings per share at Indra Sistemas, S.A are growing +27.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAF) carry?
The net debt of Indra Sistemas, S.A is €2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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