Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAY) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $10.8B

Below-average quality, and screening another 42% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($35.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The model range is unusually wide ($11.45 to $35.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.83 – $38.30 · fair‑value band $11.45 – $35.28 · the $37.00 price screens above the $21.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Indra Sistemas, S.A (ISMAY) currently trades at $37.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.51, implying the stock looks roughly 41.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Indra Sistemas, S.A generated revenue of $5.8B at a net margin of 7.9%. Revenue grew 16.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.5%. Net debt stands at $769M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.45 (bear case) to $35.28 (bull case); at $37.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -42%, ISMAY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($29.65) versus Asset-Based ($3.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Indra Sistemas, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology services for the defense, aerospace, and advanced digital technologies sectors in Spain, Brazil, the rest of America, Italy, the rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through the Defense, Air Traffic, Mobility, and Minsait segments.

Full company description

Indra Sistemas, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology services for the defense, aerospace, and advanced digital technologies sectors in Spain, Brazil, the rest of America, Italy, the rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through the Defense, Air Traffic, Mobility, and Minsait segments. The company engages in the design, development, production, integration, and maintenance of systems, solutions, and services based on the use of information technologies, including computing, electronics, and communications. It also offers radars and radar systems, air defense systems, surveillance, security and unmanned vehicles, and shipboard systems for air and naval platforms; command and control systems, communications systems, and simulators; land military vehicles; unmanned aerial systems; satellite communication systems; air traffic management systems and equipment; air traffic control training services; and ticketing and tolling systems, information and control systems for multiple infrastructures and modes of transport, railway safety and signaling systems, and transport planning and consulting services. In addition, the company provides proprietary product solutions; implementation of third-party solutions; digital business services, including business consulting, cybersecurity, and advanced technologies; traditional information technology (IT) services, such as IT outsourcing, business process outsourcing, IT restructuring management, and user management; and technology solutions for the energy and industry, telecom and media, public administration and healthcare, and financial services. It offers its services to governments and public administrations under the Indra and Minsait brands. The company was formerly known as Experiencias Industriales S.A. and changed its name to Indra Sistemas, S.A. in 1993. Indra Sistemas, S.A. was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Alcobendas, Spain.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Indra Sistemas, S.A reported revenue of $5.2B in FY2025 versus $3.4B in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was $419M in FY2025, compounding +30.7%/yr from FY2021.

ISMAY screens 42% overvalued. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

Peer Group

Information Technology Services · 488 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.