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Mostostal Warszawa S.A. (MSW) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · PL · Market cap 72.2M PLN

MW Mostostal Warszawa S.A. MSW · WAR
Price3.34 PLN
Fair Value2.41 PLN
Upside-28.0%
Quality43/100
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Strengths

Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Trades 28% ABOVE our fair value of 2.41 PLN
!Weak Growth
!Loss-making · -9.1% net margin
!Trails peers (4/11)
Weak Growth
Loss-making · -9.1% net margin
Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 1/100
Evidence: Medium Range 1.93 PLN – 2.92 PLN Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026

From 8 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 23, 2026, revised from 16.43 PLN to 2.41 PLN (−85.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −9.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 28% overvalued on our models.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

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What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.92 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

9.50 PLN 3.16 PLN Fair Value 2.41 PLN May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 3.16 PLN – 9.50 PLN · fair‑value band 1.93 PLN – 2.92 PLN · the 3.34 PLN price screens above the 2.41 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.

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Analysis

Mostostal Warszawa S.A. (MSW) currently trades at 3.34 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.41 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 28.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Mostostal Warszawa S.A. generated revenue of 1.2B PLN at a net margin of -9.1%. Revenue declined 20.7% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 19.1M PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 1.93 PLN (bear case) to 2.92 PLN (bull case); at 3.34 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -28%, MSW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 45.74 PLN 54.50 PLN 67.96 PLN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 47.80 PLN 66.20 PLN 89.06 PLN 74
Gordon GGM 3.83 PLN 4.09 PLN 4.48 PLN 70
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 44.85 PLN 54.15 PLN 69.65 PLN 38
5Y Revenue Exit 47.80 PLN 65.16 PLN 90.66 PLN 39
10Y Revenue Exit 45.25 PLN 57.10 PLN 69.88 PLN 36
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 3.83 PLN 4.09 PLN 4.48 PLN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 3.83 PLN 4.51 PLN 5.31 PLN 61
Multiples
EV/Revenue 54.16 PLN 74.18 PLN 94.20 PLN 43
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 45.74 PLN 54.50 PLN 67.96 PLN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 47.80 PLN 66.20 PLN 89.06 PLN 74

Widest divergence: Multiples (74.18 PLN) versus Dividend Discount (4.09 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 1.2B PLN
Revenue growth (YoY) -20.7%
Net margin -9.1%
Return on equity -458%
Free cash flow 103M PLN FY2025
Operating margin -2.4%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -5.64 PLN
EPS growth (YoY) -89.5%
Net cash 19.1M PLN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 5
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 60
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Mostostal Warszawa S.A. operates in the construction industry in Poland and internationally. The company operates through Industry and Power Engineering, Infrastructure, and General Construction segments.

Full company description

Mostostal Warszawa S.A. operates in the construction industry in Poland and internationally. The company operates through Industry and Power Engineering, Infrastructure, and General Construction segments. It also engages in the construction of residential buildings and housing development activities, office facilities and public buildings, and production halls and warehouses; and technological installations and steel structures. In addition, the company constructs bridges, overpasses, and multi-level crossings, as well as underground structures, such as tunnels and underground facilities; modernizes and constructs national roads, provincial roads, express roads, and motorways; and constructs elements of municipal transport infrastructure and railway projects. Further, it is involved in the execution and supply of equipment related to environmental protection, including turnkey energy facilities based on renewable fuels, sewage treatment plants, water treatment plants, water supply and sewage discharge networks, and de-dusting installations for heavy industry or hydro-technical facilities; and constructing energy facilities relying on fossil fuels, as well as provides design, renovation and modernization, and assembly services for energy boilers and turbo sets. Additionally, the company manufactures bituminous mixtures; offers construction designs for new production capacities; and provides laboratory services for construction contracts, as well as offers equipment and transport services. The company was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. Mostostal Warszawa S.A. is a subsidiary of Acciona Construccion S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Mostostal Warszawa S.A. reported revenue of 1.3B PLN in FY2025 versus 1.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was −103M PLN in FY2025.

Growth Quality 21/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.3B PLN
Latest YoY
−17.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.8%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.0%
Revenue +0.1%/yr
FY21 1.3B PLN
FY22 1.6B PLN
FY23 1.7B PLN
FY24 1.6B PLN
FY25 1.3B PLN
Net income
FY21 15.0M PLN
FY22 18.0M PLN
FY23 23.4M PLN
FY24 −26.9M PLN
FY25 −103M PLN

MSW screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mostostal Warszawa S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSW

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 832 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −28% · Below median
Return on assets -9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -21% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 14.1% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 17
FUTURE0 · sector 17
PAST0 · sector 26
HEALTH100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND100 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,072 ₹2,196 -46%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 357,500 KRW 261,411 KRW -27%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 113,700 KRW 61,453 KRW -46%
Samsung E&A Co 028050 49,300 KRW 43,624 KRW -12%
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL ₹228.50 ₹48.92 -79%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 18,400 KRW 6,507 KRW -65%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 99,800 KRW 19,346 KRW -81%
GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 33,250 KRW 23,135 KRW -30%
DL E&C Co 375500 73,500 KRW 148,433 KRW +102%
KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering Co 051600 46,350 KRW 43,924 KRW -5%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Mostostal Warszawa S.A. (MSW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.41 PLN versus a price of 3.34 PLN, about −28% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSW?
Our model-based fair value for Mostostal Warszawa S.A. is 2.41 PLN (as of Aug 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.34 PLN.
What is the quality score of MSW?
Mostostal Warszawa S.A. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Mostostal Warszawa S.A. (MSW)?
Mostostal Warszawa S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B PLN (latest available figure, as of Aug 23, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MSW?
The net profit margin of Mostostal Warszawa S.A. is about -9.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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