Mostostal Warszawa S.A. (MSW) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · PL · Market cap 72.2M PLN
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 23, 2026, revised from 16.43 PLN to 2.41 PLN (−85.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −9.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 28% overvalued on our models.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.92 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.16 PLN – 9.50 PLN · fair‑value band 1.93 PLN – 2.92 PLN · the 3.34 PLN price screens above the 2.41 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
Mostostal Warszawa S.A. (MSW) currently trades at 3.34 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.41 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 28.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mostostal Warszawa S.A. generated revenue of 1.2B PLN at a net margin of -9.1%. Revenue declined 20.7% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 19.1M PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.93 PLN (bear case) to 2.92 PLN (bull case); at 3.34 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -28%, MSW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (74.18 PLN) versus Dividend Discount (4.09 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mostostal Warszawa S.A. operates in the construction industry in Poland and internationally. The company operates through Industry and Power Engineering, Infrastructure, and General Construction segments.
Full company description
Mostostal Warszawa S.A. operates in the construction industry in Poland and internationally. The company operates through Industry and Power Engineering, Infrastructure, and General Construction segments. It also engages in the construction of residential buildings and housing development activities, office facilities and public buildings, and production halls and warehouses; and technological installations and steel structures. In addition, the company constructs bridges, overpasses, and multi-level crossings, as well as underground structures, such as tunnels and underground facilities; modernizes and constructs national roads, provincial roads, express roads, and motorways; and constructs elements of municipal transport infrastructure and railway projects. Further, it is involved in the execution and supply of equipment related to environmental protection, including turnkey energy facilities based on renewable fuels, sewage treatment plants, water treatment plants, water supply and sewage discharge networks, and de-dusting installations for heavy industry or hydro-technical facilities; and constructing energy facilities relying on fossil fuels, as well as provides design, renovation and modernization, and assembly services for energy boilers and turbo sets. Additionally, the company manufactures bituminous mixtures; offers construction designs for new production capacities; and provides laboratory services for construction contracts, as well as offers equipment and transport services. The company was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. Mostostal Warszawa S.A. is a subsidiary of Acciona Construccion S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mostostal Warszawa S.A. reported revenue of 1.3B PLN in FY2025 versus 1.3B PLN in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was −103M PLN in FY2025.
MSW screens 28% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 832 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | -46% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 357,500 KRW | 261,411 KRW | -27% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 | 113,700 KRW | 61,453 KRW | -46% |
| Samsung E&A Co 028050 | 49,300 KRW | 43,624 KRW | -12% |
| Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL | ₹228.50 | ₹48.92 | -79% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 | 18,400 KRW | 6,507 KRW | -65% |
| KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 | 99,800 KRW | 19,346 KRW | -81% |
| GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 | 33,250 KRW | 23,135 KRW | -30% |
| DL E&C Co 375500 | 73,500 KRW | 148,433 KRW | +102% |
| KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering Co 051600 | 46,350 KRW | 43,924 KRW | -5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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