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Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Northern Trust Corporation BRL 414, price BRL 438, upside -5.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · BR · ISIN US6658591044

NT Broad data Sep 29, 2026

Northern Trust Corporation

N1TR34 · SA

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value R$413.80 · Fairly valued (−5.5%)
✓Quality 64/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +22.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.7% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 68/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$479.71 R$148.62 Fair Value R$413.80 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$148.62 – R$479.71 · fair‑value band R$310.35 – R$517.25 · the R$437.80 price screens above the R$413.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management.

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Northern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical, employee benefit, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage, transition management, banking, and cash management services. It serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage; and private and business banking services. This segment also provides global custody; fiduciary; family office consulting; and technology solutions to high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately-held businesses. In addition, it offers asset management, and related services and other products comprising active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; muti-asset and alternative asset classes which includes private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. Further, the company provides overlay and other risk management services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34) currently trades at R$437.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$413.80, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.8%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$1,223 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the R$437.80 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$122.51, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$310.35 (bear) to R$517.25 (bull), the price of R$437.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Northern Trust Corporation reported revenue of $13.6B in FY2025 versus $7.5B in FY2022, a compound +22.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap R$174B (≈ $33.3B) · P/E ratio 17.7 · P/S ratio 2.26 · EPS (TTM) R$24.72 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −5%, N1TR34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$310.35 Fair Value R$413.80 Bull R$517.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$16.31 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF R$1,534 R$2,237 R$3,228 75
Owner Earnings R$1,028 R$1,566 R$2,367 73
Residual Income R$176.10 R$213.59 R$298.55 73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings R$1,028 R$1,566 R$2,367 73
5Y P/E Exit R$700.45 R$907.76 R$1,110 69
10Y P/E Exit R$979.94 R$1,223 R$1,489 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$166.66 R$473.53 R$623.80 62
Lynch FV R$96.59 R$137.99 R$179.38 58
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$82.06 R$170.63 R$270.69 63
DDM Multi-Stage R$82.06 R$130.52 R$179.08 63
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$312.49 R$416.65 R$520.82 63
P/B Multiple R$312.49 R$416.65 R$520.82 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$91.42 R$122.51 R$182.85 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$1,534 R$2,237 R$3,228 75
Rev-Margin DCF R$598.08 R$745.58 R$901.33 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$176.10 R$213.59 R$298.55 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 96
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 94/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 17%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.3% a year for the price and −8.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−32.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.7%

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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Blackstone Inc BX $112.09 $52.29 −53%
KKR & Co KKR $93.18 $29.26 −69%
Brookfield Corporation BN $36.87 $13.45 −64%
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $116.06 $197.23 +70%
State Street Corporation STT $177.78 $139.37 −22%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $494.82 $595.40 +20%
Ares Management Corporation ARES $122.01 $103.68 −15%
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $161.16 $317.27 +97%
Exor N.V EXO €68.10 €136.20 +100%
Principal Financial Group PFG $112.24 $47.18 −58%

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Northern Trust Corporation · Fair Value
R$413.80 −5%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northern Trust Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/N1TR34

Frequently asked questions

Is Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$413.80 versus a price of R$437.80, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of N1TR34?
Our model-based fair value for Northern Trust Corporation is R$413.80 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$437.80.
What is the quality score of N1TR34?
Northern Trust Corporation has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$413.80 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$310.35, optimistic scenario R$517.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Trust Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$413.80, about −5% upside versus a price of R$437.80 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$310.35, optimistic scenario R$517.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
Northern Trust Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Northern Trust Corporation pay a dividend?
Northern Trust Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northern Trust Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -17.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +22.0 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of N1TR34 use?
Our models discount Northern Trust Corporation at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Northern Trust Corporation that is -17.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Northern Trust Corporation grew +22.0 % a year. The price currently implies -17.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Northern Trust Corporation (-17.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.47 %: that much free cash flow Northern Trust Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Trust Corporation it is R$413.80 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$437.80. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northern Trust Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, N1TR34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$437.80, fair value R$413.80, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of N1TR34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$437.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$413.80). For Northern Trust Corporation the two are R$24.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Trust Corporation worth?
The market values Northern Trust Corporation at about R$174B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$437.80; our models calculate a fair value of R$413.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about N1TR34?
Our models span a range for Northern Trust Corporation: cautious scenario R$310.35, base R$413.80, optimistic R$517.25 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$437.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is N1TR34 from its 52-week high?
Northern Trust Corporation trades at R$437.80, about 9% below its 52-week high of R$479.71 and 29% above the low of R$340.29 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$413.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Trust Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Trust Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$437.80, calculated fair value R$413.80 (−5%), Quality Score 64/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of N1TR34 calculated?
We run Northern Trust Corporation through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$413.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Northern Trust Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$437.80. Our model-based fair value is R$413.80, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Trust Corporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Northern Trust Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Trust Corporation is R$174B (≈ $33.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Northern Trust Corporation is 17.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Northern Trust Corporation is 2.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
Earnings per share at Northern Trust Corporation are R$24.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
The dividend yield of Northern Trust Corporation is 0.7% (payout 12.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
The net margin of Northern Trust Corporation is 12.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Trust Corporation is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Trust Corporation is 1.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
The operating margin of Northern Trust Corporation is 31.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
Revenue at Northern Trust Corporation is growing +13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Northern Trust Corporation (N1TR34)?
Earnings per share at Northern Trust Corporation are growing +42.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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