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Nedbank Group (NDBKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Nedbank Group $17.36, price $16.95, upside +2.4%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN ZAE000004875

NG Nedbank Group logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Nedbank Group

NDBKF · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $17.36 · Fairly valued (+2.4%)
!Quality 59/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +31.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓8.6% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Moderate moat 47/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.54 $0.5450 Fair Value $17.36 Dec 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5450 – $18.54 · fair‑value band $13.09 – $21.70 · the $16.95 price screens below the $17.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Nedbank Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various wholesale and retail banking services in South Africa, rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally.

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Nedbank Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various wholesale and retail banking services in South Africa, rest of Africa, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Nedbank Corporate and Investment Banking; Nedbank Business and Commercial Banking; Nedbank Personal and Private Banking; Nedbank Africa Regions; and Centre segments. It offers lending products, advisory services, leverage financing, trading, brokering, structuring, hedging, and client coverage; corporate finance advisory, innovative financial products and services, customised transactional banking, asset management, and commercial property finance; transactional accounts, home loans, vehicle and asset finance, card services, personal loans, insurance and investments; Wealth services include trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning, as well as tailored banking and services; and franchising and manufacturing industries and public sector. The company also provides life and non-life insurance; asset management; trust and estate planning, stockbroking, and financial planning wealth management services. In addition, it offers capital management, funding, and liquidity risk management. The company was formerly known as Nedcor Limited and changed its name to Nedbank Group Limited in 2005. Nedbank Group Limited was founded in 1831 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Nedbank Group (NDBKF) currently trades at $16.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.36, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.4%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $21.07 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $16.95 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.99, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $13.09 (bear) to $21.70 (bull), the price of $16.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Nedbank Group reported revenue of 160B ZAR in FY2025 versus 51.6B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +32.7%/yr. Reported net income was 9.2B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $6.3B · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) $2.08 · Dividend yield 8.6% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 2%, NDBKF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.09 Fair Value $17.36 Bull $21.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $12.40 $13.29 $14.73 76
Gordon GGM $12.23 $24.38 $36.91 67
DDM Multi-Stage $12.23 $21.07 $25.73 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $12.23 $24.38 $36.91 67
DDM Multi-Stage $12.23 $21.07 $25.73 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $11.79 $15.72 $19.65 63
P/B Multiple $15.42 $20.56 $25.70 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.45 $9.99 $14.91 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.40 $13.29 $14.73 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 88
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+137.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+72.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+64.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.67.1% vs 31.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 9%
2025 sits 934% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (14 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Values & ESG

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Nedbank Group · Fair Value
$17.36 +2%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nedbank Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NDBKF

Frequently asked questions

Is Nedbank Group (NDBKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.36 versus a price of $16.95, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NDBKF?
Our model-based fair value for Nedbank Group is $17.36 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.95.
What is the quality score of NDBKF?
Nedbank Group has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.36 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.09, optimistic scenario $21.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nedbank Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.36, about +2% upside versus a price of $16.95 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $13.09, optimistic scenario $21.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
Nedbank Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 59.9B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Nedbank Group pay a dividend?
Nedbank Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nedbank Group it is $17.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $16.95. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nedbank Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NDBKF trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.95, fair value $17.36, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NDBKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.36). For Nedbank Group the two are $0.4100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nedbank Group worth?
The market values Nedbank Group at about $6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $16.95; our models calculate a fair value of $17.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NDBKF?
Our models span a range for Nedbank Group: cautious scenario $13.09, base $17.36, optimistic $21.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $16.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is NDBKF from its 52-week high?
Nedbank Group trades at $16.95, about 9% below its 52-week high of $18.54 and 31% above the low of $12.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nedbank Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nedbank Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $16.95, calculated fair value $17.36 (+2%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NDBKF calculated?
We run Nedbank Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Nedbank Group currently trades 2 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $16.95. Our model-based fair value is $17.36, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nedbank Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Nedbank Group (NDBKF) come from?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group grew +7.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.0 %, EBIT margin −12.7 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Nedbank Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
The market capitalisation of Nedbank Group is $6.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Nedbank Group is 8.1. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nedbank Group is 0.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group are $2.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
The dividend yield of Nedbank Group is 8.6% (payout 70.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
The net margin of Nedbank Group is 5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nedbank Group is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nedbank Group is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
The operating margin of Nedbank Group is 17.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
Revenue at Nedbank Group is growing −19.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nedbank Group (NDBKF)?
Earnings per share at Nedbank Group are growing −94.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Nedbank Group (NDBKF) generate?
The free cash flow of Nedbank Group is 106B ZAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Nedbank Group (NDBKF) carry?
The net debt of Nedbank Group is 48.0B ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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