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NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of NagaCorp Ltd $1.56, price $0.40, upside +290.0%, quality 77 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
NagaCorp Ltd
NGCRF · USStrongly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside with high Quality.
✓Fair value $1.56 · Strongly undervalued (+290.0%)
✓Quality 77/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 46.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.3% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 75/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2463 – $1.67 · fair‑value band $1.01 – $2.15 · the $0.4000 price screens below the $1.56 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
NagaCorp Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the management and operation of a hotel and casino complex in the Kingdom of Cambodia. It operates through two segments, Casino Operations; and Hotel and Entertainment Operations.
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NagaCorp Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the management and operation of a hotel and casino complex in the Kingdom of Cambodia. It operates through two segments, Casino Operations; and Hotel and Entertainment Operations. The company owns, manages, and operates NagaWorld, an integrated hotel and entertainment complex that consists of gaming tables, electronic gaming machines, public gaming areas, VIP referral halls, suites and rooms, food and beverage outlets, a live performance venue, event spaces, and a shopping mall. It also engages in the provision of management consulting; management of aircraft; transportation support activities; travel agency services; and employment placement agency services. In addition, it is involved in property development and investment activities; and the operation of a retail business and a football club. Further, the company manages NagaCity Walk project; and engages in culture tourism center activities. NagaCorp Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is based in Phnom Penh, the Kingdom of Cambodia.
Stock analysis
NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF) currently trades at $0.4000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.56, implying the stock looks roughly 74.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.94 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.4000 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.3600, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.01 (bear) to $2.15 (bull), the price of $0.4000 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
NagaCorp Ltd reported revenue of $711M in FY2025 versus $214M in FY2021, a compound +35.1%/yr. Reported net income was $310M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B · P/E ratio 5.7 · P/S ratio 2.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.0700 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 43.7% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 290%, NGCRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.01
Fair Value $1.56
Bull $2.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0371 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.00
$1.77
$3.46
74
EPV
$1.02
$1.17
$1.30
74
Growth DCF
$0.9700
$1.80
$3.05
73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.00
$1.77
$3.46
74
Owner Earnings
$1.04
$1.96
$3.62
70
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.4700
$0.6400
$0.8700
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$1.16
$2.17
$3.50
71
5Y P/E Exit
$1.12
$2.08
$3.24
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.6300
$0.8700
$1.22
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.10
$2.01
$3.51
64
10Y P/E Exit
$1.07
$1.94
$3.28
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.4800
$2.70
$3.75
61
Lynch FV
$0.7600
$1.08
$1.41
59
PEG = 1.0
$0.7600
$1.08
$1.41
55
EPV
$1.02
$1.17
$1.30
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.0900
$0.1800
$0.2700
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.0900
$0.1500
$0.1900
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.16
$1.54
$1.93
63
P/S Multiple
$0.1400
$0.1900
$0.2400
58
P/B Multiple
$0.8900
$1.19
$1.49
55
EV/EBIT
$1.63
$2.15
$2.67
66
EV/EBITDA
$1.31
$1.71
$2.12
67
EV/Revenue
$0.2200
$0.2800
$0.3300
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2700
$0.3600
$0.5400
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.9700
$1.80
$3.05
73
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.4700
$0.6500
$0.9100
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.5100
$0.6200
$0.9200
73
ROIC Compounder
$1.19
$1.62
$2.18
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.16
$1.65
$2.15
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
77/100
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 16
Profitability
54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
33
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
14
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+34.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+27.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.1% vs 0.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 71%
2025 sits 182% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.8% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.6%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Gambling
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| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.59 | $80.89 | +173% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6150 SGD | 0.5600 SGD | −9% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $50.76 | $31.15 | −39% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $71.23 | $130.75 | +84% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $136.11 | $152.57 | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.56 versus a price of $0.4000, about +290% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NGCRF?
Our model-based fair value for NagaCorp Ltd is $1.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.4000.
What is the quality score of NGCRF?
NagaCorp Ltd has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $2.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NagaCorp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.56, about +290% upside versus a price of $0.4000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $2.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
NagaCorp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $666M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does NagaCorp Ltd pay a dividend?
NagaCorp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, NagaCorp Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -14.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NGCRF use?
Our models discount NagaCorp Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For NagaCorp Ltd that is -14.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at NagaCorp Ltd grew -4.2 % a year. The price currently implies -14.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into NagaCorp Ltd (-14.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.14 %: that much free cash flow NagaCorp Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NagaCorp Ltd it is $1.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.4000. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NagaCorp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, NGCRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.4000, fair value $1.56, a gap of about +290% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGCRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.56). For NagaCorp Ltd the two are $1.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NagaCorp Ltd worth?
The market values NagaCorp Ltd at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.4000; our models calculate a fair value of $1.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGCRF?
Our models span a range for NagaCorp Ltd: cautious scenario $1.01, base $1.56, optimistic $2.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.4000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is NGCRF from its 52-week high?
NagaCorp Ltd trades at $0.4000, about 50% below its 52-week high of $0.8000 and at the low of $0.4000 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NagaCorp Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NagaCorp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.4000, calculated fair value $1.56 (+290%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGCRF calculated?
We run NagaCorp Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. NagaCorp Ltd currently trades 74 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.4000. Our model-based fair value is $1.56, about +290% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NagaCorp Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($1.01 to $2.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF) come from?
Earnings per share at NagaCorp Ltd grew −4.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.4 %, EBIT margin +2.9 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NagaCorp Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
The market capitalisation of NagaCorp Ltd is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of NagaCorp Ltd is 5.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NagaCorp Ltd is 2.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
Earnings per share at NagaCorp Ltd are $0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
The dividend yield of NagaCorp Ltd is 5.3% (payout 30.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
The net margin of NagaCorp Ltd is 43.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NagaCorp Ltd is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NagaCorp Ltd is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
The operating margin of NagaCorp Ltd is 44.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
Revenue at NagaCorp Ltd is growing +36.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF)?
Earnings per share at NagaCorp Ltd are growing +45.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does NagaCorp Ltd (NGCRF) hold?
NagaCorp Ltd holds more cash than debt, $188M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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