MGM Resorts International (MGM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what MGM Resorts International is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.79 – $50.90 · fair‑value band $23.94 – $39.91 · the $37.81 price screens above the $31.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital.
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MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. The company operates casino resorts that offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities, as well as online/digital games through its online platforms. Its casino operations include slots and table games, as well as live dealer, online sports betting, and iGaming through BetMGM. The company's customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
MGM Resorts International (MGM) currently trades at $37.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.91, implying the stock looks roughly 18.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $81.63 per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the $37.81 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.36, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $23.94 (bear) to $39.91 (bull), the price of $37.81 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
MGM Resorts International reported revenue of $17.5B in FY2025 versus $9.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was $206M in FY2025, compounding −36.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.8B · P/E ratio 51.8 · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) $0.7300 · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −16%, MGM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $23.94Fair Value $31.91Bull $39.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5208 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−12.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25% vs −9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−13% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare MGM Resorts International with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−23% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.56× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MGM Resorts International Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGM
Frequently asked questions
Is MGM Resorts International (MGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.91 versus a price of $37.81, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MGM?
Our model-based fair value for MGM Resorts International is $31.91 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.81.
What is the quality score of MGM?
MGM Resorts International has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.91 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.94, optimistic scenario $39.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MGM Resorts International stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.91, about −16% upside versus a price of $37.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.94, optimistic scenario $39.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
MGM Resorts International reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $17.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MGM Resorts International would have to grow free cash flow by -5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.0 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGM use?
Our models discount MGM Resorts International at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MGM Resorts International that is -5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MGM Resorts International (MGM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MGM Resorts International grew +29.0 % a year. The price currently implies -5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MGM Resorts International (MGM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MGM Resorts International (-5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.65 %: that much free cash flow MGM Resorts International produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MGM Resorts International it is $31.91 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $37.81. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MGM Resorts International stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, MGM trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.81, fair value $31.91, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.91). For MGM Resorts International the two are $5.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MGM Resorts International worth?
The market values MGM Resorts International at about $11.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $37.81; our models calculate a fair value of $31.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGM?
Our models span a range for MGM Resorts International: cautious scenario $23.94, base $31.91, optimistic $39.91 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $37.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGM?
MGM Resorts International trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.8 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 4.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MGM?
The PEG ratio of MGM Resorts International is 1.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Balance-sheet figures for MGM Resorts International (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 13.5%, debt of 2.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGM from its 52-week high?
MGM Resorts International trades at $37.81, about 27% below its 52-week high of $51.59 and 30% above the low of $29.19 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MGM Resorts International?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MGM Resorts International stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $37.81, calculated fair value $31.91 (−16%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGM calculated?
We run MGM Resorts International through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $31.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MGM Resorts International itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $37.81. Our model-based fair value is $31.91, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MGM Resorts International right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of MGM Resorts International
How large is the market capitalisation of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The market capitalisation of MGM Resorts International is $11.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MGM Resorts International is 0.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Earnings per share at MGM Resorts International are $0.7300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 51.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The net margin of MGM Resorts International is 1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MGM Resorts International is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MGM Resorts International is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The operating margin of MGM Resorts International is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Revenue at MGM Resorts International is growing +4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Earnings per share at MGM Resorts International are growing −5.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MGM Resorts International (MGM) carry?
The net debt of MGM Resorts International is $54.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 32.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 18, 2026