MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, (MGM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $11.8B
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries,
MGM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $17.73 to $24.66 (+39.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −4.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.79 – $50.90 · fair‑value band $18.50 – $30.83 · the $44.70 price screens above the $24.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, (MGM) currently trades at $44.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.66, implying the stock looks roughly 44.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, generated revenue of $17.7B at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue grew 4.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.5%. Net debt stands at $54.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.50 (bear case) to $30.83 (bull case); at $44.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at -45%, MGM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($81.63) versus Asset-Based ($6.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital.
Full company description
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital. The company operates casino resorts that offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities, as well as online/digital games through its online platforms. Its casino operations include slots and table games, as well as live dealer, online sports betting, and iGaming through BetMGM. The company's customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, reported revenue of $17.5B in FY2025 versus $9.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was $206M in FY2025, compounding −36.3%/yr from FY2021.
MGM screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Las Vegas Sands Corp →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MGM Q2 Deep Dive: Las Vegas, Macau, and Digital Expansion Shape Outlook
- Cloudflare CEO slams Vail Resorts’ Hornbuckle pick amid $500M Park City bid
- Yakira Capital Management Urges People Board to Withdraw MGM Acquisition Proposal and Prioritize Share Repurchases
- MGM Resorts (MGM) Stock Looks Undervalued On Cash Flow While Earnings Look Overvalued
Peer Group
Resorts & Casinos · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Resorts & Casinos stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sands Corp LVS | $44.79 | $52.27 | +17% |
| Galaxy Entertainment Group 0027 | HK$34.20 | HK$41.44 | +21% |
| Sands China Ltd 1928 | HK$13.08 | HK$2.05 | -84% |
| Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN | $97.05 | $69.39 | -29% |
| Red Rock Resorts, Inc RRR | $64.75 | $17.09 | -74% |
| Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD | $87.64 | $151.24 | +73% |
| Caesars Entertainment, Inc CZR | $29.91 | $80.92 | +171% |
| Genting Singapore Limited G13 | 0.6150 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +12% |
| Vail Resorts, Inc MTN | $150.14 | $125.02 | -17% |
| MGM China Holdings 2282 | HK$11.36 | HK$24.07 | +112% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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