MGM Resorts International (MGM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MGM Resorts International stock $31.91, price $32.82, that is 2.8% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 19 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.79 – $50.90 · fair‑value band $23.94 – $39.91 · the $32.82 price screens above the $31.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow MGM Resorts International in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether MGM Resorts International is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming and entertainment company in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, Regional Operations, MGM China, and MGM Digital.
Show moreShow less
The company operates casino resorts that offer gaming, hotel, convention, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities, as well as online/digital games through its online platforms.
Its casino operations include slots and table games, as well as live dealer, online sports betting, and iGaming through BetMGM. The company's customers include premium gaming customers; leisure and wholesale travel customers; business travelers; and group customers, including conventions, trade associations, and small meetings.
The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts International was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
MGM Resorts International (MGM) currently trades at $32.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.91, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.8%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $27.31 per share, and 4 of the 19 models we run sit above the $32.82 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $6.73, and 15 of the 19 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $23.94 (bear) to $39.91 (bull), the price of $32.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
MGM Resorts International reported revenue of $17.5B in FY2025 versus $9.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was $206M in FY2025, compounding −36.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.5B Mid · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) $1.62 · Net margin 2.4% · Return on equity 18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −3%, MGM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$23.94Fair Value $31.91Bull$39.91
Price $32.82 · Downside -2.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.38 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$26.39$45.43$73.3677
Growth DCF$26.27$43.83$68.5076
Residual Income$7.65$8.10$9.0676
All 19 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$26.39$45.43$73.3677
Owner Earnings$5.35$12.19$22.2371
5Y Revenue Exit$14.35$24.45$37.2070
5Y EBITDA Exit$21.67$38.86$59.3873
5Y P/E Exit$13.34$22.46$32.1169
10Y Revenue Exit$18.29$28.64$42.6265
10Y EBITDA Exit$23.12$38.21$59.1566
10Y P/E Exit$18.07$27.31$38.8263
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$5.48$21.47$29.1464
Lynch FV$5.29$7.55$9.8261
PEG = 1.0$5.29$7.55$9.8257
EPV$5.09$6.73$8.1073
Multiples
P/E Multiple$13.30$17.73$22.1763
P/S Multiple$10.28$13.70$17.1357
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$26.27$43.83$68.5076
Rev-Margin DCF$14.35$24.73$37.5670
Economic Profit
Residual Income$7.65$8.10$9.0676
ROIC Compounder$5.09$6.73$8.1071
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$9.70$13.86$18.0267
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $51.7M, on Nov 2, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $256,587.
BuyKeith A. MeisterDirector1,745,592 shares at $29.64$51.7MNov 2, 2026
SaleDaniel J TaylorDirector6,675 shares at $38.44$256,587May 22, 2026
BuyIAC Inc.10% owner2× since Dec 5, 2025: 2,098,748 shares, avg. $36.74$77.1MMar 24, 2026
SaleKeith A. MeisterDirector37,500 shares at $34.27$1.3MMar 9, 2026
Plus 21 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24.8% vs −8.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−13% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.4% a year for the price and −1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Limited durable moat in a capital-intensive sector with modest margins forms the main weakness, while Las Vegas leadership and BetMGM momentum represent the chief strength.
Main risk: Nevada regulators could impose further fines or licence conditions on MGM for anti-money laundering deficiencies after the company already paid a penalty for allowing illegal bookmakers to operate at its properties.
Bull case: MGM could enhance its AML systems and training to meet stricter standards, preserving its Nevada gaming licences and supporting uninterrupted operations at its Las Vegas resorts and BetMGM platform.
Bear case: Repeated regulatory actions could lead to additional fines, operational restrictions or even licence challenges that disrupt MGM's core casino and resort activities in key markets.
MGM Resorts now operates as a standalone company after People Inc. withdrew its acquisition proposal. The board highlights its Las Vegas leadership, BetMGM momentum, and the MGM Osaka project as central to future value. Will executing these initiatives independently deliver more than pursuing other strategic options?
Compare MGM Resorts International with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 64 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−2.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.56× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.3× · Pricier than median
P/B3.48× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MGM Resorts International Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MGM
Frequently asked questions
Is MGM Resorts International (MGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.91 versus a price of $32.82, about 3% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MGM?
Our model-based fair value for MGM Resorts International is $31.91 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.82.
What is the quality score of MGM?
MGM Resorts International has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.91 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.94, optimistic scenario $39.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MGM Resorts International stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.91, about 3% lower versus a price of $32.82 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $23.94, optimistic scenario $39.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
MGM Resorts International reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $17.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MGM Resorts International would have to grow free cash flow by -6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MGM use?
Our models discount MGM Resorts International at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MGM Resorts International that is -6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MGM Resorts International (MGM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MGM Resorts International grew +29.0 % a year. The price currently implies -6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MGM Resorts International (MGM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MGM Resorts International (-6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.71 %: that much free cash flow MGM Resorts International produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MGM Resorts International it is $31.91 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $32.82. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MGM Resorts International stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MGM trades above its calculated fair value: price $32.82, fair value $31.91, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MGM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.91). For MGM Resorts International the two are $0.9060 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MGM Resorts International worth?
The market values MGM Resorts International at about $8.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $32.82; our models calculate a fair value of $31.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MGM?
Our models span a range for MGM Resorts International: cautious scenario $23.94, base $31.91, optimistic $39.91 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $32.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MGM?
MGM Resorts International trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.91 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 10.9 (reported for FY2025: 42.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 13.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 3.5, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MGM?
The PEG ratio of MGM Resorts International is 0.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Balance-sheet figures for MGM Resorts International (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 18.9%, debt of 2.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MGM from its 52-week high?
MGM Resorts International trades at $32.82, about 35% below its 52-week high of $50.69 and 20% above the low of $27.27 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MGM Resorts International?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MGM Resorts International stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $32.82, calculated fair value $31.91 (−3%), Quality Score 53/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MGM calculated?
We run MGM Resorts International through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $31.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. MGM Resorts International itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $32.82. Our model-based fair value is $31.91, about 3% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MGM Resorts International right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of MGM Resorts International
How large is the market capitalisation of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The market capitalisation of MGM Resorts International is $8.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MGM Resorts International is 0.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Earnings per share at MGM Resorts International are $1.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The net margin of MGM Resorts International is 2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MGM Resorts International is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MGM Resorts International is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
The operating margin of MGM Resorts International is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Revenue at MGM Resorts International is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MGM Resorts International (MGM)?
Earnings per share at MGM Resorts International are growing +519% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MGM Resorts International (MGM) carry?
The net debt of MGM Resorts International is $54.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 32.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch MGM Resorts International in the live analysis
One click puts MGM Resorts International on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 6, 2026