Onconetix Inc (ONCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $3.4M · ISIN US68237Q1040
What is Onconetix Inc really worth?
Onconetix Inc
ONCO · US
Below-average quality, trading 58% below our fair value of $2.43.
As of Jul 24, 2026, the fair value of Onconetix Inc is $2.43 per share against a price of $1.02, so the fair value sits 138% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 44 days ago
Share price +1.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.82). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.82 to $3.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
55‑month range $0.6120 – $1,000,000 · fair‑value band $1.82 – $3.63 · the $1.02 price screens below the $2.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Onconetix Inc (ONCO) currently trades at $1.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.43, implying the stock looks roughly 58.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $735K. Revenue declined 78.9% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $5.2M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 0.0 (as of Jun 22, 2026). Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.82 (bear case) to $3.63 (bull case); at $1.02, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at 138%, ONCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $939.65 per share, which is 38,652.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Onconetix, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of solutions for men's health and oncology in the United States, the European Union, and Non-European Union. The company offers Proclarix, an in vitro protein-based blood diagnostic test for prostate cancer.
Full company description
Onconetix, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of solutions for men's health and oncology in the United States, the European Union, and Non-European Union. The company offers Proclarix, an in vitro protein-based blood diagnostic test for prostate cancer. It has a license agreement with LabCorp to develop and commercialize Proclarix and other products; and with Immunovia AB for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of the PancreaSure test. The company was formerly known as Blue Water Biotech, Inc. and changed its name to Onconetix, Inc. in December 2023. Onconetix, Inc. was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Onconetix Inc reported revenue of $815K in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$14.0M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Biotechnology · 626 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $547.55 | $278.78 | −49% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $807.71 | $594.40 | −26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | −67% |
| BeOne Medicines AG 688235 | ¥271.00 | ¥47.36 | −83% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,518,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | −30% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | −77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | −60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 190,700 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −61% |
| BioNTech SE BNTX | $103.76 | $45.70 | −56% |
| Incyte Corporation INCY | $123.22 | $115.79 | −6% |
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