Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Japan Exchange Group Inc $10.95, price $16.17, upside -32.3%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.33 – $16.17 · fair‑value band $4.76 – $15.63 · the $16.17 price screens above the $10.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Japan Exchange Group, Inc. operates as a financial instruments exchange holding company in Japan.
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Japan Exchange Group, Inc. operates as a financial instruments exchange holding company in Japan. The company engages in the operation of financial instruments exchange markets for trading listed securities and derivatives instruments to market users; publication of stock prices and quotations; provides market facilities for trading of commodity derivatives, physical commodities, and commodity index futures; self-regulatory operations, such as listing examination, listed company compliance, market surveillance, and inspections and examinations of trading participants. The company also provides clearing and settlement, and market-related services for transactions through proprietary trading systems (PTS), over-the-counter derivative transactions, and over-the-counter government bond transactions. The company was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF) currently trades at $16.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.95, implying the stock looks roughly 47.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $4.76 (bear) to $15.63 (bull), the price of $16.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Japan Exchange Group Inc reported revenue of ¥200B in FY2026 versus ¥136B in FY2022, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥79.6B in FY2026, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $15.1B · P/E ratio 43.7 · P/S ratio 17.4 · EPS (TTM) $0.3700 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 39.8% · Return on equity 23.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −32%, OSCUF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.76Fair Value $10.95Bull $15.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (47 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Japan Exchange Group Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Above median
Fair Value upside−32.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23.0% · Above median
Return on assets0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)39.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)58.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth45.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)43.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.82× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)11.92× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.0× · Pricier than median
PEG350.64× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 73
PAST (return on equity)92· sector 78
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)52· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Japan Exchange Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OSCUF
Frequently asked questions
Is Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.95 versus a price of $16.17, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OSCUF?
Our model-based fair value for Japan Exchange Group Inc is $10.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.17.
What is the quality score of OSCUF?
Japan Exchange Group Inc has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.76, optimistic scenario $15.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Japan Exchange Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.95, about −32% upside versus a price of $16.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.76, optimistic scenario $15.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
Japan Exchange Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥199B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Japan Exchange Group Inc pay a dividend?
Japan Exchange Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Japan Exchange Group Inc it is $10.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $16.17. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Japan Exchange Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OSCUF trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.17, fair value $10.95, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OSCUF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.95). For Japan Exchange Group Inc the two are $5.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Japan Exchange Group Inc worth?
The market values Japan Exchange Group Inc at about $15.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $16.17; our models calculate a fair value of $10.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OSCUF?
Our models span a range for Japan Exchange Group Inc: cautious scenario $4.76, base $10.95, optimistic $15.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $16.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OSCUF?
Japan Exchange Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 350.6, P/B 6.8, P/S 11.9, EV/EBITDA 17.0.
What is the PEG ratio of OSCUF?
The PEG ratio of Japan Exchange Group Inc is 350.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Japan Exchange Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 23.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OSCUF from its 52-week high?
Japan Exchange Group Inc trades at $16.17, at its 52-week high of $16.17 and 73% above the low of $9.33 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Japan Exchange Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Japan Exchange Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $16.17, calculated fair value $10.95 (−32%), Quality Score 75/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OSCUF calculated?
We run Japan Exchange Group Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Japan Exchange Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $16.17. Our model-based fair value is $10.95, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Japan Exchange Group Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($4.76 to $15.63). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF) come from?
Earnings per share at Japan Exchange Group Inc grew +3.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.4 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Japan Exchange Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
The market capitalisation of Japan Exchange Group Inc is $15.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Japan Exchange Group Inc is 17.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
Earnings per share at Japan Exchange Group Inc are $0.3700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
The dividend yield of Japan Exchange Group Inc is 2.6% (payout 114%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
The net margin of Japan Exchange Group Inc is 39.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Japan Exchange Group Inc is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Japan Exchange Group Inc is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
The operating margin of Japan Exchange Group Inc is 58.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
Revenue at Japan Exchange Group Inc is growing +45.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF)?
Earnings per share at Japan Exchange Group Inc are growing +73.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF) generate?
The free cash flow of Japan Exchange Group Inc is ¥107B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Japan Exchange Group Inc (OSCUF) hold?
Japan Exchange Group Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥58.3B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026