Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (ICE) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $80.2B
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc
ICE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +9.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($107.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($56.40 to $107.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $85.65 – $186.07 · fair‑value band $56.40 – $107.90 · the $149.75 price screens above the $75.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc (ICE) currently trades at $149.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $75.95, implying the stock looks roughly 49.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc generated revenue of $10.4B at a net margin of 37.7%. Revenue grew 20.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.9%. Net debt stands at $19.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $56.40 (bear case) to $107.90 (bull case); at $149.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -49%, ICE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($168.12) versus Dividend Discount ($31.46). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East.
Full company description
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange and equities, and corporate and exchange-traded funds, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides fixed income pricing, reference data, indices, analytics, and execution services, as well as global CDS clearing and multi-asset class data delivery technology. The Mortgage Technology segment offers a technology platform that provides customers comprehensive and digital workflow tools to address inefficiencies and mitigate risks that exist in the U.S. residential mortgage market life cycle from application through closing, servicing, and the secondary market. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc reported revenue of $12.6B in FY2025 versus $9.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.3B in FY2025, compounding −5.0%/yr from FY2021.
ICE screens 49% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- NYSE Content Update: Intercontinental Exchange to Acquire MarketAxess in $6 Billion Deal
- MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) On Its ICE Deal, Bargain Or Already Fully Valued?
Peer Group
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 55 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $450.84 | $196.36 | -56% |
| CME Group CME | $245.05 | $145.51 | -41% |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $504.46 | $194.82 | -61% |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €260.90 | €142.42 | -45% |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $88.08 | $41.12 | -53% |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $604.71 | $214.91 | -64% |
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $160.49 | $57.05 | -64% |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $273.41 | $136.64 | -50% |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥215.56 | ¥55.36 | -74% |
| Singapore Exchange Limited S68 | 23.88 SGD | 7.88 SGD | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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