Moody's Corporation (MCO) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $86.4B

A solid business, but screening 59% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($289.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range ($127.94 to $289.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $227.83 – $537.16 · fair‑value band $127.94 – $289.11 · the $473.13 price screens above the $194.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Moody's Corporation (MCO) currently trades at $473.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $194.82, implying the stock looks roughly 58.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Moody's Corporation generated revenue of $7.9B at a net margin of 31.7%. Revenue grew 8.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 71.4%. Net debt stands at $5.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $127.94 (bear case) to $289.11 (bull case); at $473.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -59%, MCO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($266.41) versus Asset-Based ($15.55). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Services (MIS).

Full company description

Moody's Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated risk assessment firm in the United States, the rest of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Moody's Analytics (MA) and Moody's Investors Services (MIS). The MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in financial markets. This segment also offers credit research, credit models and analytics, economics data and models, and structured finance solutions; data sets on companies and securities; and cloud-based SaaS subscription-based solutions supporting banking, insurance, and know-your-customer workflows. Its MIS segment publishes credit ratings and provides assessment services on various debt obligations, programs and facilities, and entities that issue such obligations, such as various corporate, financial institution, and governmental obligations, as well as structured finance securities. It also provides ratings, investment research, compliance and third-party risk, supplier risk, trade credit, business intelligence sales and marketing, financial and regulatory reporting, balance sheet management, capital management, credit portfolio management, and model risk and governance solutions; Maxsight, a unified risk platform; lending suite, origination, and monitoring solutions; and property, casualty, and sustainable insurance underwriting solutions. The company serves the financial, banking, insurance, corporation, public, and asset management sectors. The company was formerly known as Dun and Bradstreet Company and changed its name to Moody's Corporation in September 2000. Moody's Corporation was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Moody's Corporation reported revenue of $7.7B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.

MCO screens 59% overvalued. Compare with S&P Global Inc →

Peer Group

Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 55 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 44/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.