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Oatly Group AB (OTLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Oatly Group AB stock $6.25, price $8.12, that is 23.0% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive US · ADR · Based in Sweden

OG Oatly Group AB logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Oatly Group AB

OTLY · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 23% below what the stock costs today.

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +15.4 %/yr in USD)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Fair value $6.25 · Overvalued
Quality 36/100
Loss-making · -9.5% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Narrow moat 10/100
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$381.40 $6.84 Fair Value $6.25 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.84 – $381.40 · fair‑value band $4.69 – $7.81 · the $8.12 price screens above the $6.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Oatly Group AB, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, China, Sweden, The Netherlands, Finland, and Switzerland.

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Its oatmilk portfolio includes original, low-fat, full-fat, chocolate flavored, unsweetened, and Super Basic, which are offered in ambient and chilled packaging.

The company offers Barista edition oatmilk; matcha; Oatgurts, which are oat-based yogurts; frozen desserts; cooking products, including regular and organic cooking cream, crème fraiche, whipping cream, vanilla custard, and spreads in a variety of flavors; and ready-to-go drinks.

It sells its products through including foodservice, food retail, and e-commerce channels. The company was formerly known as Havre Global AB and changed its name to Oatly Group AB in March 2021. Oatly Group AB was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Malmö, Sweden.

Stock analysis

Oatly Group AB (OTLY) currently trades at $8.12, while our estimate is $6.25, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $4.69 (bear) to $7.81 (bull), the price of $8.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Oatly Group AB ADR reported revenue of $862M in FY2025 versus $643M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$153M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $255M Micro · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) $−2.80 · Net margin −9.5% · Return on equity −350% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2.8% · Revenue (TTM) $945M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −23%, OTLY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $4.69 Fair Value $6.25 Bull $7.81
Price $8.12 · Downside -23.0%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 29
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 3
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 7
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 8
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 54
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−11.2% (2020) → −7.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

OTLY screens overvalued: fair value 23% below the price. Compare with Nestlé S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 660 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −23.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −19.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −9.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −2.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 9.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.27× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)3 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)46 · sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 55

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Wilmar International Limited F34 2.95 SGD 4.93 SGD +67% vs OTLY
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥31.14 ¥41.84 +34% vs OTLY
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $24.24 $29.20 +20% vs OTLY
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥35.46 ¥39.22 +11% vs OTLY
General Mills, Inc GIS $34.60 $35.30 +2% vs OTLY
Danone S.A BN €68.32 €50.65 −26% vs OTLY
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 86.41 CHF 59.51 −31% vs OTLY
Kerry Group KRZ €97.10 €60.33 −38% vs OTLY
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,298 ₹724.74 −44% vs OTLY
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥25.92 ¥12.21 −53% vs OTLY

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Oatly Group AB ADR: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oatly Group AB ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OTLY

Frequently asked questions

Is Oatly Group AB (OTLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $6.25 versus a price of $8.12, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OTLY?
Our estimate for Oatly Group AB is $6.25 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.12.
What is the quality score of OTLY?
Oatly Group AB has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $6.25 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $4.69, optimistic scenario $7.81. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Oatly Group AB ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $6.25, about 23% lower versus a price of $8.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.69, optimistic scenario $7.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
Oatly Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $945M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oatly Group AB it is $6.25 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $8.12.
Is Oatly Group AB ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, OTLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.12, fair value $6.25, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.25). For Oatly Group AB the two are $1.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oatly Group AB ADR worth?
The market values Oatly Group AB at about $255M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $8.12; our models calculate a fair value of $6.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTLY?
Our models span a range for Oatly Group AB: cautious scenario $4.69, base $6.25, optimistic $7.81 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $8.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oatly Group AB (as of Nov 10, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTLY from its 52-week high?
Oatly Group AB trades at $8.12, about 49% below its 52-week high of $15.90 and 5% above the low of $7.70 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oatly Group AB ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oatly Group AB ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $8.12, calculated fair value $6.25 (−23%), Quality Score 36/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Oatly Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $8.12. Our estimate is $6.25, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oatly Group AB ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Oatly Group AB

How large is the market capitalisation of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
The market capitalisation of Oatly Group AB is $255M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oatly Group AB is 0.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
Earnings per share at Oatly Group AB are $−2.80. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
The net margin of Oatly Group AB is −9.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oatly Group AB is −350% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oatly Group AB is −23.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
The operating margin of Oatly Group AB is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oatly Group AB (OTLY)?
Revenue at Oatly Group AB is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Oatly Group AB (OTLY) generate?
The free cash flow of Oatly Group AB is −$36.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Oatly Group AB (OTLY) carry?
The net debt of Oatly Group AB is $496M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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