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Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG $1.42, price $3.90, upside -63.6%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG
PBBGF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $1.42 · Strongly overvalued (−63.6%)
!Quality 42/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -67.9% net margin (FY2025)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 22/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.96 – $6.42 · fair‑value band $1.31 – $1.58 · the $3.90 price screens above the $1.42 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG provides commercial real estate and public investment finance. It operates through Real Estate Finance and Non-Core segments.
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Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG provides commercial real estate and public investment finance. It operates through Real Estate Finance and Non-Core segments. The Real Estate Finance segment provides financing for professional property investors, which includes national and international property companies, institutional investors, property funds, and medium-sized companies, as well as regionally oriented customers to finance properties comprising office buildings, residential properties, retail and logistics properties, and business hotels. The Non-Core segment offers financing eligible for Pfandbrief cover for the provision and improvement of public infrastructure and non-earmarked financing to the public sector. It operates in Germany, France, Austria, the United States, Poland, Other Europe, the United Kingdom, Spain, Sweden, Finland, Italy, Czech Republic, Portugal, Hungary, and internationally. Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Garching bei Munchen, Germany.
Stock analysis
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF) currently trades at $3.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.42, 63.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 8 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $1.31 (bear) to $1.58 (bull), the price of $3.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG reported revenue of €418M in FY2025 versus €591M in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was −€284M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $524M · EPS (TTM) $−2.83 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin −67.9% · Return on equity −9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4% · Operating margin 8.0% · Revenue (TTM) −$5.0M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 21% fair-value upside, at −64%, PBBGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.31
Fair Value $1.42
Bull $1.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM
$1.30
$1.41
$1.57
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.30
$1.59
$1.93
67
NCAV (Graham)
$12.99
$17.41
$25.98
54
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.30
$1.41
$1.57
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.30
$1.59
$1.93
67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$12.99
$17.41
$25.98
54
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
42/100
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Profitability
4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
5
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.7% (2014) → 45.8% (2019)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Compare Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 90 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCCT | $12.00 | $24.00 | +100% |
| Rocket Companies, Inc RKT | $11.97 | $2.81 | −77% |
| Federal National Mortgage Association FNMAS | $8.40 | $2.00 | −76% |
| Bajaj Housing Finance Limited BAJAJHFL | ₹83.14 | ₹25.20 | −70% |
| PennyMac Financial Services, Inc PFSI | $65.46 | $125.39 | +92% |
| UWM Holdings UWMC | $1.24 | $0.2100 | −83% |
| LIC Housing Finance Limited LICHSGFIN | ₹564.15 | ₹1,128 | +100% |
| PNB Housing Finance Limited PNBHOUSING | ₹1,098 | ₹1,329 | +21% |
| Aadhar Housing Finance Limited AADHARHFC | ₹448.40 | ₹611.66 | +36% |
| Guild Holdings GHLD | $64.54 | $55.87 | −13% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.42 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.90, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PBBGF?
Our model-based fair value for Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is $1.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $3.90.
What is the quality score of PBBGF?
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.42 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.31, optimistic scenario $1.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.42, about −64% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.31, optimistic scenario $1.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG pay a dividend?
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG it is $1.42 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.90. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PBBGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.90, fair value $1.42, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PBBGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.42). For Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG the two are $2.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG worth?
The market values Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG at about $524M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.90; our models calculate a fair value of $1.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PBBGF?
Our models span a range for Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG: cautious scenario $1.31, base $1.42, optimistic $1.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −9.3%, debt of 6.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PBBGF from its 52-week high?
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG trades at $3.90, about 35% below its 52-week high of $6.02 and at the low of $3.90 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Rocket Companies, Inc, Federal National Mortgage Association, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.90, calculated fair value $1.42 (−64%), Quality Score 42/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PBBGF calculated?
We run Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $3.90. Our model-based fair value is $1.42, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
The market capitalisation of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is $524M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
Earnings per share at Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG are $−2.83. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
The dividend yield of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is 3.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
The net margin of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is −67.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is −9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
The operating margin of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF) generate?
Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG generates revenue of −$5.0M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
Revenue at Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is growing −18.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF)?
Earnings per share at Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG are growing −66.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is −€840M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG (PBBGF) carry?
The net debt of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG is €16.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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