Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMAS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $15.0B
Federal National Mortgage Association
FNMAS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 26, 2026, revised from $1.98 to $1.93 (−2.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +0.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 81% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.48 – $17.57 · fair‑value band $1.45 – $2.42 · the $10.13 price screens above the $1.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMAS) currently trades at $10.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.93, implying the stock looks roughly 80.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Federal National Mortgage Association generated revenue of $27.2B at a net margin of 53.0%. Revenue declined 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.7%. Net debt stands at $4.2T. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.45 (bear case) to $2.42 (bull case); at $10.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -6% fair-value upside, at -81%, FNMAS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based ($35.98) versus Asset-Based ($12.73). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Federal National Mortgage Association provides financing solutions for residential mortgages in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Single-Family and Multifamily. It offers mortgage acquisitions and securitizations; and credit risk and loss management services.
Full company description
Federal National Mortgage Association provides financing solutions for residential mortgages in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Single-Family and Multifamily. It offers mortgage acquisitions and securitizations; and credit risk and loss management services. The company also engages in mortgage securitization transactions, including lender swap, portfolio securitization, and structured securitization transactions; and credit risk and loss management services. Federal National Mortgage Association was incorporated in 1938 and is based in Washington, District Of Columbia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Federal National Mortgage Association reported revenue of $29.2B in FY2025 versus $36.6B in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $14.4B in FY2025, compounding −10.3%/yr from FY2021.
FNMAS screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Rocket Companies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) Undervalued Following Strong Second Quarter Results?
- Federal National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae (FNMA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: ...
Peer Group
Mortgage Finance · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCCT | $13.90 | $27.80 | +100% |
| Rocket Companies, Inc RKT | $14.60 | $10.95 | -25% |
| Bajaj Housing Finance Limited BAJAJHFL | ₹91.33 | ₹61.48 | -33% |
| PennyMac Financial Services, Inc PFSI | $82.35 | $125.45 | +52% |
| UWM Holdings UWMC | $2.02 | $0.2200 | -89% |
| LIC Housing Finance Limited LICHSGFIN | ₹505.00 | ₹1,010 | +100% |
| PNB Housing Finance Limited PNBHOUSING | ₹1,150 | ₹762.89 | -34% |
| Aadhar Housing Finance Limited AADHARHFC | ₹496.70 | ₹501.16 | +1% |
| Walker & Dunlop, Inc WD | $48.20 | $32.55 | -32% |
| Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited APTUS | ₹261.20 | ₹244.80 | -6% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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