PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc stock $125, price $65.59, upside +91.2%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.74 – $157.77 · fair‑value band $86.29 – $156.73 · the $65.59 price screens below the $125.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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PennyMac Financial Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage banking and investment management activities in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Production and Servicing.
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The Production segment is involved in the origination, acquisition, and sale of loans. This segment also sources residential conventional and government-insured or guaranteed mortgage loans through correspondent production, consumer direct lending, and broker direct lending.
The Servicing segment performs loan administration, collection, and default management activities, including the collection and remittance of loan payments; responds to customer inquiries; provides accounting for principal and interest; holds custodial funds for the payment of property taxes and insurance premiums; offers counseling for delinquent borrowers; and supervising foreclosures and property dispositions, as well as administers loss mitigation activities comprising modification and forbearance programs, and supervising foreclosures and property dispositions.
The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Westlake Village, California.
Stock analysis
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) currently trades at $65.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.39, implying the stock looks roughly 48% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $472.42 per share, and 5 of the 7 models we run sit above the $65.59 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $16.48, and 2 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $86.29 (bear) to $156.73 (bull), the price of $65.59 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $3.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was $501M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.5B Mid · P/E ratio 9.0 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) $7.27 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 91%, PFSI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$86.29Fair Value $125.39Bull$156.73
Price $65.59 · Upside +91.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.21 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.6M and none bought.
SaleGregory L HendryMD, Chief Accounting Officer3× since Dec 18, 2025: 8,650 shares, avg. $103.39$894,321Jul 1, 2026
SaleDaniel Stanley PerottiChief Financial Officer3× since Nov 17, 2025: 14,625 shares, avg. $112.16$1.6MMay 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDavid SpectorChairman & CEO, Director7× since Nov 12, 2025: 75,386 shares, avg. $102.37$7.7MMay 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDerek StarkChief Legal Officer2× since Feb 25, 2026: 2,969 shares, avg. $90.12$267,570Mar 3, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyPatrick KinsellaDirector2,250 shares at $89.15$200,588Feb 12, 2026
SaleDoug JonesDirector, President & CMBO, Director2× since Nov 10, 2025: 43,453 shares, avg. $129.89$5.6MNov 25, 2025
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+173.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.8% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −9.0% / 31.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.57% → 35%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Limited signals of durable advantage mark the business while technology rollout aids credit decisions, yet negative operating cash flow and high leverage remain the core weakness.
Main risk: Elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on origination volumes and would hit production volumes in the mortgage finance business.
PennyMac has completed the rollout of VantageScore 4.0 across all three production channels to refine credit decisions and support lower costs. This step aligns with broader automation efforts even as elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on origination volumes. Our models currently see the shares as undervalued. Will the efficiency improvements from these technology changes outpace the rate-related pressures on production, or will the headwinds persist longer?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+91.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.4% · Above median
Return on assets1.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.81× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.05× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG4.67× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 56
FUTURE (revenue growth)9· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 100
HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $125.39 versus a price of $65.59, about +91% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PFSI?
Our model-based fair value for PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is $125.39 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $65.59.
What is the quality score of PFSI?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $125.39 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $86.29, optimistic scenario $156.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $125.39, about +91% upside versus a price of $65.59 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $86.29, optimistic scenario $156.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc pay a dividend?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc pays a dividend of $1.20 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 17, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2018. The payout ratio is 19.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 16.5%). Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc it is $125.39 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $65.59. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 5 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit).
Is PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, PFSI trades below its calculated fair value: price $65.59, fair value $125.39, a gap of about +91% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PFSI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($65.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($125.39). For PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc the two are $59.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc worth?
The market values PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc at about $3.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $65.59; our models calculate a fair value of $125.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PFSI?
Our models span a range for PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc: cautious scenario $86.29, base $125.39, optimistic $156.73 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $65.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PFSI?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $125.39 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 8.3 (reported for FY2025: 7.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 6.2. Other multiples: PEG 4.7, P/B 0.8, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
What is the PEG ratio of PFSI?
The PEG ratio of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is 4.67 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
Balance-sheet figures for PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 3.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PFSI from its 52-week high?
PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc trades at $65.59, about 58% below its 52-week high of $157.77 and 14% above the low of $57.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $125.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Rocket Companies, Inc, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, LIC Housing Finance Limited, PNB Housing Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $65.59, calculated fair value $125.39 (+91%), Quality Score 39/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PFSI calculated?
We run PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc through 7 models from 5 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $125.39 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc currently trades 48% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $65.59. Our model-based fair value is $125.39, about +91% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($86.29). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($86.29 to $156.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) come from?
Earnings per share at PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc grew +27.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +18.0 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +4.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
The market capitalisation of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is $3.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is 1.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
Earnings per share at PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc are $7.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
The dividend yield of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is 1.8% (payout 19.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 16.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
The net margin of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is 11.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
The operating margin of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
Revenue at PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI)?
Earnings per share at PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc are growing −83.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) generate?
The free cash flow of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is −$1.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc (PFSI) carry?
The net debt of PennyMac Finl Svcs Inc is $22.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026