Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Pop Mart International Group Limited $21.19, price $18.91, upside +12.0%, quality 89 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range $10.76 – $42.24 · fair‑value band $11.56 – $33.56 · the $18.91 price screens below the $21.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Pop Mart International Group Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, and sells pop toys in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers blind boxes.
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Pop Mart International Group Limited, an investment holding company, designs, develops, and sells pop toys in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers blind boxes. It sells its products through a network of retail stores and roboshops; online channels, including Tmall flagship store, DouYin, Pop Draw, and other online channels; and wholesale channels and others. The company also provides internet technology, customer, and technology development services; and operates playgrounds, as well as engages in investment and exhibition activities. Pop Mart International Group Limited was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) currently trades at $18.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.19, implying the stock looks roughly 10.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $16.41 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $18.91 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $3.82, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.56 (bear) to $33.56 (bull), the price of $18.91 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 89/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Pop Mart International Group Limited reported revenue of 13.0B CNY in FY2024 versus 4.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound +42.7%/yr. Reported net income was 3.1B CNY in FY2024, compounding +54.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $27.8B · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 3.18 · EPS (TTM) $1.42 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 24.0% · Return on equity 77.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 12%, PMRTY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.56Fair Value $21.19Bull $33.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+106.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.7%
’21
’22
’23
’24
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+94.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+92.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 32%
2024 sits 286% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+37.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.7% a year for the price and +35.5% for the forecasts.
Compare Pop Mart International Group Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 172 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score89 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+38.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)77.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets45.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)34.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)48.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth174.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pop Mart International Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PMRTY
Frequently asked questions
Is Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.19 versus a price of $18.91, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PMRTY?
Our model-based fair value for Pop Mart International Group Limited is $21.19 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.91.
What is the quality score of PMRTY?
Pop Mart International Group Limited has a Quality Score of 89/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.19 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.56, optimistic scenario $33.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pop Mart International Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.19, about +12% upside versus a price of $18.91 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.56, optimistic scenario $33.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
Pop Mart International Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 37.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Pop Mart International Group Limited pay a dividend?
Pop Mart International Group Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.65% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pop Mart International Group Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +19.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +42.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PMRTY use?
Our models discount Pop Mart International Group Limited at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pop Mart International Group Limited that is +19.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Pop Mart International Group Limited grew +42.7 % a year. The price currently implies +19.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pop Mart International Group Limited (+19.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.63 %: that much free cash flow Pop Mart International Group Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pop Mart International Group Limited it is $21.19 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $18.91. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pop Mart International Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, PMRTY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.91, fair value $21.19, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PMRTY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.19). For Pop Mart International Group Limited the two are $2.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pop Mart International Group Limited worth?
The market values Pop Mart International Group Limited at about $27.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $18.91; our models calculate a fair value of $21.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PMRTY?
Our models span a range for Pop Mart International Group Limited: cautious scenario $11.56, base $21.19, optimistic $33.56 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $18.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PMRTY?
Pop Mart International Group Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 17.1, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
What is the PEG ratio of PMRTY?
The PEG ratio of Pop Mart International Group Limited is 0.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pop Mart International Group Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 77.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 89/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PMRTY from its 52-week high?
Pop Mart International Group Limited trades at $18.91, about 47% below its 52-week high of $35.95 and 7% above the low of $17.70 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pop Mart International Group Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pop Mart International Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $18.91, calculated fair value $21.19 (+12%), Quality Score 89/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PMRTY calculated?
We run Pop Mart International Group Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Pop Mart International Group Limited currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $18.91. Our model-based fair value is $21.19, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pop Mart International Group Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($11.56 to $33.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Pop Mart International Group Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
The market capitalisation of Pop Mart International Group Limited is $27.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pop Mart International Group Limited is 3.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
Earnings per share at Pop Mart International Group Limited are $1.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
The dividend yield of Pop Mart International Group Limited is 1.7% (payout 22.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
The net margin of Pop Mart International Group Limited is 24.0% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pop Mart International Group Limited is 77.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pop Mart International Group Limited is 15.2% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
The operating margin of Pop Mart International Group Limited is 48.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
Revenue at Pop Mart International Group Limited is growing +174% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pop Mart International Group Limited (PMRTY)?
Earnings per share at Pop Mart International Group Limited are growing +271% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026