Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Oriental Land Co. Ltd $9.32, price $18.12, upside -48.6%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Oriental Land Co. Ltd for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.77 – $39.99 · fair‑value band $6.47 – $13.03 · the $18.12 price screens above the $9.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Follow Oriental Land Co. in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Oriental Land Co. is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Oriental Land Co., Ltd. operates and manages theme parks and hotels in Japan. It operates through Theme Park and Hotels segments. The Theme Park segment operates and manages Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea theme parks.
Show more
Oriental Land Co., Ltd. operates and manages theme parks and hotels in Japan. It operates through Theme Park and Hotels segments. The Theme Park segment operates and manages Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea theme parks. The Hotel Business segment operates and manages Tokyo Disneyland Hotel, Tokyo DisneySea Hotel MiraCosta, Disney Ambassador Hotel, Tokyo Disney Celebration Hotel, Tokyo Disney Resort Toy Story Hotel, and Tokyo DisneySea Fantasy Springs Hotel. The company also operates and manages Ikspiari, a shopping complex that includes shops and restaurants, and a cinema complex; and Disney Resort Line, a monorail connecting four stations. It is also involved in the land development and maintenance of landscaping. Oriental Land Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1960 and is based in Urayasu, Japan.
Stock analysis
Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF) currently trades at $18.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.32, 48.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $9.24 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $18.12 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.36, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.47 (bear) to $13.03 (bull), the price of $18.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Oriental Land Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥709B in FY2026 versus ¥276B in FY2022, a compound +26.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥123B in FY2026, compounding +97.4%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $29.7B · P/E ratio 39.4 · P/S ratio 6.81 · EPS (TTM) $0.4600 · Net margin 17.3% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% · Operating margin 15.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 39% fair-value upside, at −49%, OLCLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.47Fair Value $9.32Bull $13.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+29.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29.3% vs 5.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−27% → 24%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.7% a year for the price and +2.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (19 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 174 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−48.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.7% · Above median
Return on assets7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)17.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)95.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)39.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.23× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.65× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF44.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA18.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG7.45× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)15· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)51· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oriental Land Co. Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OLCLF
Frequently asked questions
Is Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.32 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $18.12, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OLCLF?
Our model-based fair value for Oriental Land Co. Ltd is $9.32 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $18.12.
What is the quality score of OLCLF?
Oriental Land Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.32 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.47, optimistic scenario $13.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oriental Land Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.32, about −49% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $18.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.47, optimistic scenario $13.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
Oriental Land Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥705B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oriental Land Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +18.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +33.0 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OLCLF use?
Our models discount Oriental Land Co. Ltd at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oriental Land Co. Ltd that is +18.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Oriental Land Co. Ltd grew +33.0 % a year. The price currently implies +18.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oriental Land Co. Ltd (+18.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.24 %: that much free cash flow Oriental Land Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oriental Land Co. Ltd it is $9.32 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $18.12. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oriental Land Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, OLCLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.12, fair value $9.32, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OLCLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.32). For Oriental Land Co. Ltd the two are $8.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oriental Land Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Oriental Land Co. Ltd at about $29.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $18.12; our models calculate a fair value of $9.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OLCLF?
Our models span a range for Oriental Land Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $6.47, base $9.32, optimistic $13.03 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $18.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OLCLF?
Oriental Land Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.4 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.5, P/B 4.2, P/S 6.7, EV/EBITDA 18.9.
What is the PEG ratio of OLCLF?
The PEG ratio of Oriental Land Co. Ltd is 7.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oriental Land Co. Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OLCLF from its 52-week high?
Oriental Land Co. Ltd trades at $18.12, about 20% below its 52-week high of $22.69 and 37% above the low of $13.20 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oriental Land Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oriental Land Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $18.12, calculated fair value $9.32 (−49%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OLCLF calculated?
We run Oriental Land Co. Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Oriental Land Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $18.12. Our model-based fair value is $9.32, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oriental Land Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($6.47 to $13.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF) come from?
Earnings per share at Oriental Land Co. Ltd grew +5.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin +0.8 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Oriental Land Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
The market capitalisation of Oriental Land Co. Ltd is $29.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oriental Land Co. Ltd is 6.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
Earnings per share at Oriental Land Co. Ltd are $0.4600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
The net margin of Oriental Land Co. Ltd is 17.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oriental Land Co. Ltd is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oriental Land Co. Ltd is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
The operating margin of Oriental Land Co. Ltd is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
Revenue at Oriental Land Co. Ltd is growing +2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF)?
Earnings per share at Oriental Land Co. Ltd are growing +2.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Oriental Land Co. Ltd (OLCLF) hold?
Oriental Land Co. Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥142B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Oriental Land Co. Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Oriental Land Co. Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026