Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd $23.53, price $37.44, upside -37.2%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.91 – $49.59 · fair‑value band $18.03 – $30.63 · the $37.44 price screens above the $23.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. provides infrastructure, electronics, and functional materials in Japan.
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Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. provides infrastructure, electronics, and functional materials in Japan. The company operates through Electronic Materials; Living environment basic materials; Functional materials; and Processing, trading and technical services segments It offers polyvinyl chloride resin, caustic soda, methanol, chloromethanes, and polyvinyl alcohol; and semiconductor silicon, rare earth magnets, semiconductor encapsulating materials, LED packaging materials, photoresists, photomask blanks, and synthetic quartz products. The company also sells silicones, cellulose derivatives, silicon metal, synthetic pheromones, vinyl chloride-vinyl acetate copolymer, liquid fluoroelastomers, pellicles, and silicon anode material for lithium-ion batteries. In addition, it is involved in the processed plastics; export of technologies and plants; export and import of products; and engineering activities. The company was formerly known as Shin-Etsu Nitrogen Fertilizer Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. in 1940. Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF) currently trades at $37.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.53, implying the stock looks roughly 59.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.33 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $37.44 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.77, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.03 (bear) to $30.63 (bull), the price of $37.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.6T in FY2026 versus ¥2.1T in FY2022, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥477B in FY2026, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $83.4B · P/E ratio 24.0 · P/S ratio 4.42 · EPS (TTM) $1.56 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 18.4% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −37%, SHECF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.03Fair Value $23.53Bull $30.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 14%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 25%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.7% a year for the price and +3.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−33% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.92× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.09× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA13.3× · Pricier than median
PEG2.09× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 3
FUTURE (revenue growth)7· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)30· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHECF
Frequently asked questions
Is Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.53 versus a price of $37.44, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHECF?
Our model-based fair value for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is $23.53 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.44.
What is the quality score of SHECF?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.53 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.03, optimistic scenario $30.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.53, about −37% upside versus a price of $37.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.03, optimistic scenario $30.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.6T (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHECF use?
Our models discount Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.08, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd that is +14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies +14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (+14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.27 %: that much free cash flow Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd it is $23.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $37.44. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SHECF trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.44, fair value $23.53, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHECF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.53). For Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd the two are $13.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd at about $83.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $37.44; our models calculate a fair value of $23.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHECF?
Our models span a range for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $18.03, base $23.53, optimistic $30.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $37.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHECF?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 2.9, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
What is the PEG ratio of SHECF?
The PEG ratio of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is 2.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHECF from its 52-week high?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd trades at $37.44, about 25% below its 52-week high of $49.59 and 39% above the low of $26.97 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Zhejiang Juhua Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $37.44, calculated fair value $23.53 (−37%), Quality Score 67/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHECF calculated?
We run Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $37.44. Our model-based fair value is $23.53, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF) come from?
Earnings per share at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd grew +15.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.1 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
The market capitalisation of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is $83.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is 4.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
Earnings per share at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd are $1.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
The dividend yield of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is 1.5% (payout 35.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
The net margin of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is 18.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is 15.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
The operating margin of Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
Revenue at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF)?
Earnings per share at Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd are growing −6.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd (SHECF) hold?
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co. Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥1.4T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026