Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Sonal Mercantile Ltd ₹111, price ₹79.25, upside +40.5%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹14.50 – ₹193.90 · fair‑value band ₹111.31 – ₹138.48 · the ₹79.25 price screens below the ₹111.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL) currently trades at ₹79.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹111.31, implying the stock looks roughly 28.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹244.37 per share, and 13 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹79.25 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ₹85.07, and 4 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹111.31 (bear) to ₹138.48 (bull), the price of ₹79.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality).
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sonal Mercantile Ltd reported revenue of ₹408M in FY2026 versus ₹208M in FY2022, a compound +18.3%/yr. Reported net income was ₹115M in FY2026, compounding −9.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.2B (≈ $12.1M) · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 1.48 · EPS (TTM) ₹15.03 · Net margin 28.1% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin 85.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹111.31Fair Value ₹111.31Bull ₹138.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹7.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+72.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 38%
2026 sits 154% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialized Finance · 15 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Above median
Fair Value upside−88.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.9% · Above median
Return on assets3.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)153.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)97.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth107.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.77× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialized Finance median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹111.31 versus a price of ₹79.25, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SONAL?
Our model-based fair value for Sonal Mercantile Ltd is ₹111.31 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹79.25.
What is the quality score of SONAL?
Sonal Mercantile Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹111.31 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹111.31, optimistic scenario ₹138.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sonal Mercantile Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹111.31, about +40% upside versus a price of ₹79.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹111.31, optimistic scenario ₹138.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
Sonal Mercantile Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹149M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sonal Mercantile Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.2 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SONAL use?
Our models discount Sonal Mercantile Ltd at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sonal Mercantile Ltd that is +19.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sonal Mercantile Ltd grew +19.2 % a year. The price currently implies +19.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.64 %: that much free cash flow Sonal Mercantile Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sonal Mercantile Ltd it is ₹111.31 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ₹79.25. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sonal Mercantile Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SONAL trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹79.25, fair value ₹111.31, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SONAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹79.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹111.31). For Sonal Mercantile Ltd the two are ₹32.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sonal Mercantile Ltd worth?
The market values Sonal Mercantile Ltd at about ₹1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹79.25; our models calculate a fair value of ₹111.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SONAL?
Our models span a range for Sonal Mercantile Ltd: cautious scenario ₹111.31, base ₹111.31, optimistic ₹138.48 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ₹79.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SONAL?
Sonal Mercantile Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹111.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 8.3, EV/EBITDA 41.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sonal Mercantile Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SONAL from its 52-week high?
Sonal Mercantile Ltd trades at ₹79.25, about 43% below its 52-week high of ₹138.59 and at the low of ₹79.25 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹111.31 is for.
Is Sonal Mercantile Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ₹79.25, calculated fair value ₹111.31 (+40%), Quality Score 42/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SONAL calculated?
We run Sonal Mercantile Ltd through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹111.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sonal Mercantile Ltd currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹79.25. Our model-based fair value is ₹111.31, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sonal Mercantile Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹111.31). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Sonal Mercantile Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
The market capitalisation of Sonal Mercantile Ltd is ₹1.2B (≈ $12.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sonal Mercantile Ltd is 1.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
Earnings per share at Sonal Mercantile Ltd are ₹15.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
The net margin of Sonal Mercantile Ltd is 28.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sonal Mercantile Ltd is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sonal Mercantile Ltd is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
The operating margin of Sonal Mercantile Ltd is 85.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
Revenue at Sonal Mercantile Ltd is growing −55.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL)?
Earnings per share at Sonal Mercantile Ltd are growing −69.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sonal Mercantile Ltd (SONAL) carry?
The net debt of Sonal Mercantile Ltd is ₹2.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 17.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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