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Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Southern Palladium Ltd stock A$0.15, price A$1.36, upside -88.8%, quality 23 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000220808

SP Southern Palladium Ltd logo Thin data Oct 4, 2026

Southern Palladium Ltd

SPD · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 89% below what the stock costs today.

Fair value A$0.1530 · Strongly overvalued (−88.8%)
Quality 23/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/7)
Narrow moat 12/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
Watch Southern Palladium Ltd for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$2.71 A$0.1950 Fair Value A$0.1530 Jun 2022 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

53‑month range A$0.1950 – A$2.71 · fair‑value band A$0.1020 – A$0.1870 · the A$1.36 price screens above the A$0.1530 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Southern Palladium Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of mineral activities. It primarily explores platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, osmium, nickel, chromium, chromite, copper, and gold deposits.

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The company holds 70% interest in the Bengwenyama Platinum Group Metals project covering an area of 5,280 hectares located in the Eastern Limb of the Bushveld, South Africa. Southern Palladium Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD) currently trades at A$1.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1530, 88.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.1020 (bear) to A$0.1870 (bull), the price of A$1.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Southern Palladium Ltd reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$10.5M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$180M (≈ $127M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0900 · Return on equity −28.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.4% · Operating margin −106% · Revenue (TTM) A$1.6M · Revenue growth (YoY) +49.5% · Free cash flow −A$2.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −89%, SPD screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.1020 Fair Value A$0.1530 Bull A$0.1870
Price A$1.36 · Upside -88.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1200 A$0.1800 A$0.2200 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.1200 A$0.1800 A$0.2200 52

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 76
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 40
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 56
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 46
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SPD screens overvalued: fair value 89% below the price. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 99 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −88.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −23.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −105.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 49.5% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.12× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW $9.77 $14.96 +53% vs SPD
Al Masane Al Kobra Mining Company 1322 56.70 SAR 65.25 SAR +15% vs SPD
China Gold International Resources Corp CGG C$38.52 C$42.81 +11% vs SPD
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM $29.37 $32.31 +10% vs SPD
Hecla Mining Company HL $15.14 $16.28 +8% vs SPD
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN $30.44 $26.98 −11% vs SPD
Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 ¥16.57 ¥13.23 −20% vs SPD
Artemis Gold Inc ARTG C$38.54 C$15.82 −59% vs SPD
Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA $19.21 $6.07 −68% vs SPD
PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN 3,950 IDR 883.98 IDR −78% vs SPD

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Southern Palladium Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1530 −89%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Southern Palladium Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPD

Frequently asked questions

Is Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1530 versus a price of A$1.36, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPD?
Our model-based fair value for Southern Palladium Ltd is A$0.1530 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.36.
What is the quality score of SPD?
Southern Palladium Ltd has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1530 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1020, optimistic scenario A$0.1870. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Southern Palladium Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1530, about −89% upside versus a price of A$1.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1020, optimistic scenario A$0.1870. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
Southern Palladium Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.6M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Southern Palladium Ltd it is A$0.1530 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$1.36. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Southern Palladium Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, SPD trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.36, fair value A$0.1530, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1530). For Southern Palladium Ltd the two are A$1.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Southern Palladium Ltd worth?
The market values Southern Palladium Ltd at about A$180M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$1.36; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1530 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPD?
Our models span a range for Southern Palladium Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1020, base A$0.1530, optimistic A$0.1870 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$1.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Southern Palladium Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −28.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPD from its 52-week high?
Southern Palladium Ltd trades at A$1.36, about 50% below its 52-week high of A$2.71 and 42% above the low of A$0.9600 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1530 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Southern Palladium Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, China Gold International Resources Corp, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Southern Palladium Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$1.36, calculated fair value A$0.1530 (−89%), Quality Score 23/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPD calculated?
We run Southern Palladium Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1530, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Southern Palladium Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was A$1.36. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1530, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Southern Palladium Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1870). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.1020 to A$0.1870) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Southern Palladium Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
The market capitalisation of Southern Palladium Ltd is A$180M (≈ $127M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
Earnings per share at Southern Palladium Ltd are A$−0.0900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Southern Palladium Ltd is −28.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Southern Palladium Ltd is −15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
The operating margin of Southern Palladium Ltd is −106% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD)?
Revenue at Southern Palladium Ltd is growing +49.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD) generate?
The free cash flow of Southern Palladium Ltd is −A$2.0M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Southern Palladium Ltd (SPD) hold?
Southern Palladium Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$279K net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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