Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd $38.13, price $71.60, upside -46.8%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.02 – $82.07 · fair‑value band $21.80 – $64.85 · the $71.60 price screens above the $38.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the resource development, manufacture, and sale of non-ferrous metal products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Resource, Smelting, and Material segments.
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Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the resource development, manufacture, and sale of non-ferrous metal products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Resource, Smelting, and Material segments. The company is involved in the development and operation of the Hishikari Mine and other mines; smelting and refining business, which provides metal products, such as copper, nickel and cobalt, silver, platinum, rhodium, ruthenium, palladium, slag sand, copper sulfate, selenium, gypsum, sulfuric acid, and green sand, as well as gold and precious metals, rolled copper foil, copper and brass strips, tin plated copper and brass strips, and iron contained pellets; and develops and produces battery materials. It also produces battery cathode material for vehicles; lithium tantalate and lithium niobate for communication devices; cesium tungsten oxide, other near infrared ray absorbing materials, and thick film pastes; copper-clad polyimide films and printed wiring boards; silicon-carbide semiconductor; and automobile exhaust gas purification catalysts, chemical catalysts, and hydrotreating catalysts. In addition, the company engages in the water and precious metals recycling; water treatment and environmental improvement operations; and environmental preservation; sterilization, disinfection, and polymer material modification services for medical devices, non-woven fabrics and hygienic materials, laboratory and clinical testing equipment, containers, food packaging materials, pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and herbal medicine materials. Further, it is involved in the coastal shipping, port transport, in-plant logistics, and land transportation. The company was formerly known as Seika Kogyo (Mining) Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. in June 1952. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. was founded in 1590 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF) currently trades at $71.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.13, 46.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $66.53 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $71.60 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $7.17, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $21.80 (bear) to $64.85 (bull), the price of $71.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.8T in FY2026 versus ¥1.3T in FY2022, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥177B in FY2026, compounding −10.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $20.8B · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 1.80 · EPS (TTM) $4.03 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −47%, STMNF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $21.80Fair Value $38.13Bull $64.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.1% vs 7.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 11%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 186% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+56.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +52.9% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
Compare Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside−33.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.57× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.89× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF171.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 66
PAST (return on equity)35· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)54· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STMNF
Frequently asked questions
Is Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.13 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $71.60, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STMNF?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is $38.13 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $71.60.
What is the quality score of STMNF?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.13 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.80, optimistic scenario $64.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.13, about −47% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $71.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.80, optimistic scenario $64.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.7T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +56.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.6 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STMNF use?
Our models discount Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd that is +56.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd grew +13.6 % a year. The price currently implies +56.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (+56.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.58 %: that much free cash flow Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd it is $38.13 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $71.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, STMNF trades above its calculated fair value: price $71.60, fair value $38.13, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STMNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($71.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.13). For Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd the two are $33.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd at about $20.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $71.60; our models calculate a fair value of $38.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STMNF?
Our models span a range for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $21.80, base $38.13, optimistic $64.85 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $71.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STMNF?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 14.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 8.7%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STMNF from its 52-week high?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd trades at $71.60, about 13% below its 52-week high of $82.07 and 129% above the low of $31.30 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $71.60, calculated fair value $38.13 (−47%), Quality Score 47/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STMNF calculated?
We run Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $71.60. Our model-based fair value is $38.13, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($64.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($21.80 to $64.85). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
The market capitalisation of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is $20.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is 1.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd are $4.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
The dividend yield of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is 2.7% (payout 48.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
The net margin of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is 10.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
The operating margin of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
Revenue at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is growing +22.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd are growing +10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd (STMNF) carry?
The net debt of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd is ¥550B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 28.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026