Tullow Oil PLC (TLW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tullow Oil PLC stock £0.31, price £0.10, upside +200.0%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.0390 – £0.6224 · fair‑value band £0.2721 – £0.3429 · the £0.1034 price screens below the £0.3102 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Tullow Oil plc, an energy company, develops, produces, and sells oil and gas resources in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Tullow Oil PLC (TLW) currently trades at £0.1034, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.3102, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £1.63 per share, and 14 of the 20 models we run sit above the £0.1034 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £0.0400, and 6 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £0.2721 (bear) to £0.3429 (bull), the price of £0.1034 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Tullow Oil PLC reported revenue of $851M in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound −9.8%/yr. Reported net income was $6.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap £153M Micro · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) £−0.0800 · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity −316% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% · Operating margin 52.1% · Revenue (TTM) $933M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 165% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, TLW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£0.2721Fair Value £0.3102Bull£0.3429
Price £0.1034 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−44.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.2% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−49.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−49.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−73% → 25%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.8%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets0.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−3.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)52.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.22× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow1.5× · Cheapest 25%
PEG5.07× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 68
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Tullow Oil PLC (TLW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.3102 versus a price of £0.1034, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TLW?
Our model-based fair value for Tullow Oil PLC is £0.3102 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.1034.
What is the quality score of TLW?
Tullow Oil PLC has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.3102 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.2721, optimistic scenario £0.3429. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tullow Oil PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.3102, about +200% upside versus a price of £0.1034 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £0.2721, optimistic scenario £0.3429. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
Tullow Oil PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $933M (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tullow Oil PLC it is £0.3102 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of £0.1034. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tullow Oil PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, TLW trades below its calculated fair value: price £0.1034, fair value £0.3102, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.1034); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.3102). For Tullow Oil PLC the two are £0.2068 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tullow Oil PLC worth?
The market values Tullow Oil PLC at about £153M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is £0.1034; our models calculate a fair value of £0.3102 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLW?
Our models span a range for Tullow Oil PLC: cautious scenario £0.2721, base £0.3102, optimistic £0.3429 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price £0.1034). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TLW?
The PEG ratio of Tullow Oil PLC is 5.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 26, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tullow Oil PLC (as of Oct 26, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLW from its 52-week high?
Tullow Oil PLC trades at £0.1034, about 58% below its 52-week high of £0.2465 and 165% above the low of £0.0390 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.3102 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tullow Oil PLC?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tullow Oil PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price £0.1034, calculated fair value £0.3102 (+200%), Quality Score 41/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLW calculated?
We run Tullow Oil PLC through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.3102, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Tullow Oil PLC currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was £0.1034. Our model-based fair value is £0.3102, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tullow Oil PLC right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (£0.2721). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Tullow Oil PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
The market capitalisation of Tullow Oil PLC is £153M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tullow Oil PLC is 0.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
Earnings per share at Tullow Oil PLC are £−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
The net margin of Tullow Oil PLC is 0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tullow Oil PLC is −316% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tullow Oil PLC is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
The operating margin of Tullow Oil PLC is 52.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
Revenue at Tullow Oil PLC is growing +20.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tullow Oil PLC (TLW)?
Earnings per share at Tullow Oil PLC are growing +175% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tullow Oil PLC (TLW) generate?
The free cash flow of Tullow Oil PLC is $139M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tullow Oil PLC (TLW) carry?
The net debt of Tullow Oil PLC is $1.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 26, 2026