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Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vista Gold Corporation stock $1.79, price $2.82, that is 36.5% below the price, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials US · Home Canada · ISIN CA9279263037

VG Vista Gold Corporation logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Vista Gold Corporation

VGZ · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 37% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Fair value $1.79 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 33/100
Weak Growth
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/8)
Narrow moat 3/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$3.05 $0.3010 Fair Value $1.79 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3010 – $3.05 · fair‑value band $1.34 – $2.23 · the $2.82 price screens above the $1.79 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Vista Gold Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a development-stage company in the gold mining industry. Its flagship asset is the 100% owned Mt Todd gold project located in the Northern Territory, Australia.

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The company was formerly known as Granges, Inc. and changed its name to Vista Gold Corp. in November 1996. Vista Gold Corp. was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Englewood, Colorado.

Stock analysis

Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ) currently trades at $2.82, while our estimate is $1.79, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $1.34 (bear) to $2.23 (bull), the price of $2.82 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Vista Gold Corporation reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$7.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $412M Small · EPS (TTM) $−0.0600 · Return on equity −26.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −44.1% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$7.4M · Net cash $13.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 3 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −37%, VGZ screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $1.34 Fair Value $1.79 Bull $2.23
Price $2.82 · Downside -36.5%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 26
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 28
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 19
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 81
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 92
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 8
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • SalePeter F. PalmedoFormer 10% Beneficial Owner2× since Dec 19, 2025: 1,280,744 shares, avg. $2.15$2.8MDec 23, 2025
  • SaleSUN VALLEY GOLD LLC10% owner1,242,469 shares at $1.74$2.2MNov 12, 2025

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 9, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8,776.6% (2011) → −3,004.2% (2017)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

VGZ screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

Compare Vista Gold Corporation with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 288 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Below median
Fair Value upside −36.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −46.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 27.25× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 2
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 81
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 24

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $200.80 $220.07 +10% vs VGZ
Newmont Corporation NEM $125.16 $133.00 +6% vs VGZ
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $282.66 $259.27 −8% vs VGZ
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $99.37 $88.58 −11% vs VGZ
Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 ¥27.00 ¥23.61 −13% vs VGZ
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $263.46 $212.28 −19% vs VGZ
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.85 $18.00 −21% vs VGZ
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$26.62 A$16.87 −37% vs VGZ
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $143.94 $87.64 −39% vs VGZ
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥28.18 ¥15.62 −45% vs VGZ

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Vista Gold Corporation: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vista Gold Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VGZ

Frequently asked questions

Is Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $1.79 versus a price of $2.82, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VGZ?
Our estimate for Vista Gold Corporation is $1.79 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.82.
What is the quality score of VGZ?
Vista Gold Corporation has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $1.79 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $1.34, optimistic scenario $2.23. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Vista Gold Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $1.79, about 37% lower versus a price of $2.82 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.34, optimistic scenario $2.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vista Gold Corporation it is $1.79 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $2.82.
Is Vista Gold Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, VGZ trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.82, fair value $1.79, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VGZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.79). For Vista Gold Corporation the two are $1.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vista Gold Corporation worth?
The market values Vista Gold Corporation at about $412M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $2.82; our models calculate a fair value of $1.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VGZ?
Our models span a range for Vista Gold Corporation: cautious scenario $1.34, base $1.79, optimistic $2.23 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $2.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vista Gold Corporation (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −26.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VGZ from its 52-week high?
Vista Gold Corporation trades at $2.82, about 8% below its 52-week high of $3.05 and 83% above the low of $1.54 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vista Gold Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vista Gold Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $2.82, calculated fair value $1.79 (−37%), Quality Score 33/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2% above its aggregate fair value. Vista Gold Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $2.82. Our estimate is $1.79, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vista Gold Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Vista Gold Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ)?
The market capitalisation of Vista Gold Corporation is $412M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ)?
Earnings per share at Vista Gold Corporation are $−0.0600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vista Gold Corporation is −26.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vista Gold Corporation is −44.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ) generate?
The free cash flow of Vista Gold Corporation is −$7.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Vista Gold Corporation (VGZ) hold?
Vista Gold Corporation holds more cash than debt, $13.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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