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Zijin Mining Group (601899) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 754B CNY

ZM Zijin Mining Group 601899 · SHG
Price¥34.50
Fair Value¥30.58
Upside-11.4%
Quality64/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 16.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
1.30% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Wide moat 80/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥21.95 – ¥65.64 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from ¥28.67 to ¥30.58 (+6.7%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +24.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 11% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (¥21.95 to ¥65.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Our model range runs from ¥21.95 (bear) to ¥65.64 (bull), base ¥30.58. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 64/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥43.45 ¥7.35 Fair Value ¥30.58 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥7.35 – ¥43.45 · fair‑value band ¥21.95 – ¥65.64 · the ¥34.50 price screens above the ¥30.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Zijin Mining Group (601899) currently trades at ¥34.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥30.58, implying the stock looks roughly 11.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Zijin Mining Group generated revenue of 369B CNY at a net margin of 16.7%. Revenue grew 24.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. Net debt stands at 104B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥21.95 (bear case) to ¥65.64 (bull case); at ¥34.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -11%, 601899 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥33.90 ¥70.19 ¥143.67 80
Residual Income ¥18.68 ¥26.12 ¥209.51 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥31.16 ¥64.66 ¥115.31 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥35.69 ¥61.84 ¥141.07 38
Owner Earnings ¥28.31 ¥68.96 ¥158.11 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥31.16 ¥59.82 ¥116.28 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥39.64 ¥78.00 ¥148.92 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥35.52 ¥77.20 ¥131.33 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥31.21 ¥68.57 ¥110.15 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥38.64 ¥85.33 ¥172.46 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥35.65 ¥77.18 ¥149.65 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥17.09 ¥119.18 ¥167.26 54
Lynch FV ¥36.68 ¥52.40 ¥68.12 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥36.68 ¥52.40 ¥68.12 46
EPV ¥26.20 ¥31.17 ¥35.59 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥6.20 ¥13.53 ¥22.76 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥6.20 ¥11.08 ¥14.10 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥37.70 ¥50.26 ¥62.83 63
P/S Multiple ¥31.72 ¥42.30 ¥52.87 58
P/B Multiple ¥20.09 ¥26.78 ¥33.48 55
EV/EBIT ¥47.16 ¥63.53 ¥79.90 53
EV/EBITDA ¥41.41 ¥55.86 ¥70.31 54
EV/Revenue ¥27.65 ¥40.34 ¥53.03 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.46 ¥5.98 ¥8.93 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥33.90 ¥70.19 ¥143.67 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥31.16 ¥64.66 ¥115.31 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥18.68 ¥26.12 ¥209.51 76
ROIC Compounder ¥33.70 ¥50.98 ¥75.88 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥48.55 ¥69.36 ¥90.17 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥69.36) versus Asset-Based (¥5.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 369B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +24.8%
Net margin 16.7%
Return on equity 33.8%
Free cash flow 45.6B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 13.1
More key figures
Operating margin 29.6%
EPS (TTM) ¥2.27
Dividend yield 1.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +95.7%
Net debt 104B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 23
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 80
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration and extraction of metals in Mainland China and internationally.

Full company description

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in exploration and extraction of metals in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers copper, gold, zinc concentrate, lead concentrate, silver, lithium, iron concentrate, tungsten concentrate, and molybdenum concentrate; smelted copper, smelted and processed gold and silver, smelted zinc ingots, sulfuric acid, and battery -grade lithium carbonate; and copper pipes, copper plates and strips, potassium gold cyanide, and other products. It is also involved in mineral resource exploration; gold and copper mining and beneficiation; gold and copper smelting ; sales of jewelry and mineral products; investment in the mining industry; foreign trade; open-pit mining of copper and gold mines and underground mining of copper mines; manufacturing of special equipment for environmental protection; air pollution control; water pollution control; solid waste treatment; waste incineration power generation and hazardous waste disposal; and other services. The company holds 100% interest in the Shapinggou Molybdenum mine in Jinzhai County, Anhui Province. The company was formerly known as Fujian Zijin Mining Industry Company Limited and changed its name to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited in June 2004. Zijin Mining Group Company Limited was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Longyan, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zijin Mining Group reported revenue of ¥349B in FY2025 versus ¥225B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥51.8B in FY2025, compounding +34.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
349B CNY
Latest YoY
+14.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+8.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+15.2%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y)
+30.2%
Revenue +11.6%/yr
FY21 ¥225B
FY22 ¥270B
FY23 ¥293B
FY24 ¥304B
FY25 ¥349B
Net income +34.8%/yr
FY21 ¥15.7B
FY22 ¥20.0B
FY23 ¥21.1B
FY24 ¥32.1B
FY25 ¥51.8B

601899 screens 11% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zijin Mining Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601899

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Gold · 259 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −11% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Above median
Revenue growth 25% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.58× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.10× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.05× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.4× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.68× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 18 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 100
PAST 100 · sector 0
HEALTH 71 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 26 · sector 24

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $112.00 $132.73 +19%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$191.93 C$154.33 -20%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $34.93 $50.66 +45%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$152.57 C$52.47 -66%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV C$284.75 C$97.76 -66%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $76.35 $88.63 +16%
Gold Fields Limited GFI $33.33 $59.06 +77%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $22.57 $34.62 +53%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$20.48 A$15.98 -22%
Pan American Silver Corp PAAS C$58.54 C$40.15 -31%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zijin Mining Group (601899) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥30.58 versus a price of ¥34.50, about −11% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 601899?
Our model-based fair value for Zijin Mining Group is ¥30.58 (as of Jul 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥34.50.
What is the quality score of 601899?
Zijin Mining Group has a Quality Score of 64/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zijin Mining Group (601899)?
Zijin Mining Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 369B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601899?
The net profit margin of Zijin Mining Group is about 16.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zijin Mining Group pay a dividend?
Zijin Mining Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.25% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 20, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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