Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Verra Mobility Corp $3.94, price $3.38, upside +16.5%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.38 – $30.84 · fair‑value band $1.69 – $7.54 · the $3.38 price screens below the $3.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Verra Mobility Corporation provides smart mobility technology solutions in the United States, Australia, Europe, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Commercial Services, Government Solutions, and Parking Solutions.
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Verra Mobility Corporation provides smart mobility technology solutions in the United States, Australia, Europe, and Canada. It operates through three segments: Commercial Services, Government Solutions, and Parking Solutions. The Commercial Services segment offers automated toll and violations management, and title and registration solutions to rental car companies, direct commercial fleet owner-operators, fleet management companies, and other fleet owners. The Government Solutions segment provides photo enforcement solutions and services to its customers, including complete, end-to-end speed, red-light, and school bus stop arm and bus lane enforcement solutions; and traffic enforcement products and recurring maintenance services related to the equipment and software. This segment serves municipalities, counties, school districts, and law enforcement agencies. The Parking Solutions segment offers an integrated suite of parking software, transaction processing and hardware solutions to its customers, which include universities, municipalities, healthcare facilities, and commercial parking operators. This segment also develops specialized hardware and parking management software that provides a platform for the issuance of parking permits, enforcement, gateless vehicle counting, and event parking and citation services, as well as produces and markets its proprietary software as a service to its customers. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Mesa, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM) currently trades at $3.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.94, implying the stock looks roughly 14.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $31.48 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the $3.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.29, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.69 (bear) to $7.54 (bull), the price of $3.38 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Verra Mobility Corp reported revenue of $979M in FY2025 versus $551M in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was $137M in FY2025, compounding +34.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $652M · P/E ratio 4.2 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) $0.8100 · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 45.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8% · Operating margin 23.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 86% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 66% fair-value upside, at 17%, VRRM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.69Fair Value $3.94Bull $7.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5925 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.36% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 24%
2025 sits 138% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.3% a year for the price and −4.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 490 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)46% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)4.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.22× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.94 versus a price of $3.38, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VRRM?
Our model-based fair value for Verra Mobility Corp is $3.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.38.
What is the quality score of VRRM?
Verra Mobility Corp has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.69, optimistic scenario $7.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Verra Mobility Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.94, about +17% upside versus a price of $3.38 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.69, optimistic scenario $7.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
Verra Mobility Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $979M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Verra Mobility Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VRRM use?
Our models discount Verra Mobility Corp at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Verra Mobility Corp that is -1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Verra Mobility Corp grew +20.0 % a year. The price currently implies -1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Verra Mobility Corp (-1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.08 %: that much free cash flow Verra Mobility Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Verra Mobility Corp it is $3.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.38. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Verra Mobility Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VRRM trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.38, fair value $3.94, a gap of about +17% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VRRM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.94). For Verra Mobility Corp the two are $0.5580 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Verra Mobility Corp worth?
The market values Verra Mobility Corp at about $652M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.38; our models calculate a fair value of $3.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VRRM?
Our models span a range for Verra Mobility Corp: cautious scenario $1.69, base $3.94, optimistic $7.54 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VRRM?
Verra Mobility Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Verra Mobility Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 45.9%, debt of 3.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VRRM from its 52-week high?
Verra Mobility Corp trades at $3.38, about 86% below its 52-week high of $24.79 and at the low of $3.38 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Verra Mobility Corp?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Verra Mobility Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.38, calculated fair value $3.94 (+17%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VRRM calculated?
We run Verra Mobility Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Verra Mobility Corp currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.38. Our model-based fair value is $3.94, about +17% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Verra Mobility Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($1.69 to $7.54). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM) come from?
Earnings per share at Verra Mobility Corp grew −1.1 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.1 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Verra Mobility Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
The market capitalisation of Verra Mobility Corp is $652M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Verra Mobility Corp is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
Earnings per share at Verra Mobility Corp are $0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
The net margin of Verra Mobility Corp is 14.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Verra Mobility Corp is 45.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Verra Mobility Corp is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
The operating margin of Verra Mobility Corp is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
Revenue at Verra Mobility Corp is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM)?
Earnings per share at Verra Mobility Corp are growing −15.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Verra Mobility Corp (VRRM) hold?
Verra Mobility Corp holds more cash than debt, $27.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026