Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK $3.35, price $2.41, upside +39.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.17 – $3.93 · fair‑value band $2.24 – $4.71 · the $2.41 price screens below the $3.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Woolworths Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through seven segments: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home; Woolworths Food; Woolworths Logistics; Country Road Group; Woolworths Financial Services; and Treasury.
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Woolworths Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through seven segments: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home; Woolworths Food; Woolworths Logistics; Country Road Group; Woolworths Financial Services; and Treasury. The company provides food, clothing, homeware, beauty, and other lifestyle products. It offers financial products and services, such as store cards, credit cards, personal loans, and other financial products. In addition, the company is involved in the cash and debt management activities. Woolworths Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1929 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY) currently trades at $2.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.35, implying the stock looks roughly 28.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.52 per share, and 11 of the 17 models we run sit above the $2.41 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4900, and 6 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.24 (bear) to $4.71 (bull), the price of $2.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK reported revenue of 79.5B ZAR in FY2025 versus 78.8B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −12.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.0B · P/E ratio 20.1 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 15.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.5% · Operating margin 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at 39%, WLWHY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.24Fair Value $3.35Bull $4.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.2% vs −2.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
Compare Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+34.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)57.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.87× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Is Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.35 versus a price of $2.41, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WLWHY?
Our model-based fair value for Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is $3.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.41.
What is the quality score of WLWHY?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.24, optimistic scenario $4.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.35, about +39% upside versus a price of $2.41 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.24, optimistic scenario $4.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 81.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK it is $3.35 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.41. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WLWHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.41, fair value $3.35, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WLWHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.35). For Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK the two are $0.9400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK worth?
The market values Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.41; our models calculate a fair value of $3.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WLWHY?
Our models span a range for Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK: cautious scenario $2.24, base $3.35, optimistic $4.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WLWHY?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.7, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.7%, debt of 0.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WLWHY from its 52-week high?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK trades at $2.41, about 34% below its 52-week high of $3.63 and 10% above the low of $2.20 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.41, calculated fair value $3.35 (+39%), Quality Score 59/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WLWHY calculated?
We run Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK currently trades 28 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.41. Our model-based fair value is $3.35, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($2.24 to $4.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY) come from?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK grew −0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK
How large is the market capitalisation of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
The market capitalisation of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
The net margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is 13.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
The operating margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
Revenue at Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is growing +5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY)?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK are growing −32.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY) generate?
The free cash flow of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is −291M ZAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK (WLWHY) carry?
The net debt of Woolworths Holdings Ltd PK is 15.4B ZAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026