Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd $6.64, price $12.40, upside -46.5%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.59 – $15.07 · fair‑value band $4.36 – $8.30 · the $12.40 price screens above the $6.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. engages in the retail of household goods, and food items in Japan and internationally.
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Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. engages in the retail of household goods, and food items in Japan and internationally. The company conducts programs regarding disaster prevention into daily life using familiar daily products and initiatives with developing countries; engages in video production, home sales, renewable energy business, and product development and production management. It also engages in the sales of mobile; sells native products through online stores; farmland and mountain foothills conservation; production, consulting, and design of residential, offices, and public spaces; design of office fixtures and related products; construction of large-scale wooden structures; distributes and sells vegetables; and sales of detached houses and apartment renovations. In addition, it operates MUJI to GO offers travel products; MUJI and ReMUJI sells reuse and recycling of some products; MUJI STAY, an accommodation service under MUJI HOTEL, MUJI BASE, MUJI room, and MUJI Camp names; MUJI 500 offers fundamental and daily life product shop dedicated mainly to products priced at 500 yen or less; Café&Meal provides meals, desserts, and drinks; IDÉE, an interior brand offers furniture and accessories, textiles and green products, vintage items, music, and books; healthcare center; develops school gardens into plots to lease as a space for huts with vegetable gardens unders MUJI HUT name; operates campsites; and MUJI HOUSE, one room space solution. Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY) currently trades at $12.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.64, implying the stock looks roughly 86.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.61 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $12.40 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.32, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.36 (bear) to $8.30 (bull), the price of $12.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd reported revenue of ¥785B in FY2025 versus ¥454B in FY2021, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥50.8B in FY2025, compounding +10.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.2B · P/E ratio 35.3 · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.3500 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 6.5% · Return on equity −4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −46%, RYKKY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.36Fair Value $6.64Bull $8.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs 9%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 9%
2025 sits 106% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.7% a year for the price and +8.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (33 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 120 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−47% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.3× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.03× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.3× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)17· sector 45
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RYKKY
Frequently asked questions
Is Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.64 versus a price of $12.40, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RYKKY?
Our model-based fair value for Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd is $6.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.40.
What is the quality score of RYKKY?
Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.36, optimistic scenario $8.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.64, about −46% upside versus a price of $12.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.36, optimistic scenario $8.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥402B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +21.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew +10.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RYKKY use?
Our models discount Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.01, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd that is +21.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd grew +10.2 % a year. The price currently implies +21.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (+21.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.40 %: that much free cash flow Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd it is $6.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, RYKKY trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.40, fair value $6.64, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RYKKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.64). For Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd the two are $5.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd worth?
The market values Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd at about $13.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.40; our models calculate a fair value of $6.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RYKKY?
Our models span a range for Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd: cautious scenario $4.36, base $6.64, optimistic $8.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RYKKY?
Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.8%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RYKKY from its 52-week high?
Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd trades at $12.40, about 18% below its 52-week high of $15.07 and 42% above the low of $8.71 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Cencosud S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.40, calculated fair value $6.64 (−46%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RYKKY calculated?
We run Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $12.40. Our model-based fair value is $6.64, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($4.36 to $8.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY) come from?
Earnings per share at Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.5 %, EBIT margin −3.2 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
The market capitalisation of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd is $13.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd is 2.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
Earnings per share at Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd are $0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
The dividend yield of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd is 0.9% (payout 30.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
The net margin of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd is 6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd is −4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
The operating margin of Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
Revenue at Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY)?
Earnings per share at Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd are growing +47.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd (RYKKY) hold?
Ryohin Keikaku Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥32.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026