Exelixis Inc (EXEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Exelixis Inc stock $111, price $68.71, upside +61.3%, quality 96 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.96 – $72.75 · fair‑value band $56.45 – $144.07 · the $68.71 price screens below the $110.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Exelixis, Inc., an oncology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of new medicines for difficult-to-treat cancers in the United States.
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The company offers CABOMETYX tablets for the treatment of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma who received prior anti-angiogenic therapy; and COMETRIQ capsules for the treatment of progressive and metastatic medullary thyroid cancer.
Its CABOMETYX and COMETRIQ are derived from cabozantinib, an inhibitor of multiple tyrosine kinases, including MET, AXL, RET, and VEGF receptors.
The company also offers COTELLIC, an inhibitor of MEK as a combination regimen to treat specific forms of advanced melanoma; and MINNEBRO, an oral non-steroidal selective blocker of the mineralocorticoid receptor for the treatment of hypertension in Japan.
It develops zanzalintinib, a novel, potent oral inhibitor of kinases, including the TAM kinases, MET, and VEGF receptors; XL309, a small molecule inhibitor of USP1, a synthetic lethal target in the context of BRCA-mutated tumors; XB010, an antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) consisting of a MMAE payload conjugated to a monoclonal antibody targeting the tumor antigen 5T4; XB628, a first-in-class bispecific antibody that targets programmed cell death ligand 1and natural killer cell receptor group 2A; and XB371, a next-generation tissue factor targeting ADC with a topoisomerase inhibitor payload.
It has research collaborations and license agreements with Ipsen Pharma SAS; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Ltd.; F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd.; Catalent, Inc.; Iconic Therapeutics, Inc.; Adagene Inc.; Invenra, Inc.; Genentech, Inc.; Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; and Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited, as well as business development activities and other collaborations.
The company was formerly known as Exelixis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Exelixis, Inc. in February 2000. Exelixis, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Alameda, California.
Stock analysis
Exelixis Inc (EXEL) currently trades at $68.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $110.82, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $110.82 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $68.71 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $34.54, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $56.45 (bear) to $144.07 (bull), the price of $68.71 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 96/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Exelixis Inc reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.8%/yr. Reported net income was $783M in FY2025, compounding +35.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $17.8B Large · P/E ratio 20.6 · P/S ratio 7.15 · EPS (TTM) $3.34 · Net margin 35.5% · Return on equity 44.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.9% · Operating margin 40.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 93 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 61%, EXEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$56.45Fair Value $110.82Bull$144.07
Price $68.71 · Upside +61.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.84 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 9 officers or directors sold shares worth $11.1M and none bought.
SaleMary C BeckerleDirector3× since Nov 11, 2025: 42,146 shares, avg. $45.85$1.9MAug 10, 2026
SaleSue Gail EckhardtDirector2× since Feb 13, 2026: 13,668 shares, avg. $48.35$660,828Jun 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJack L WyszomierskiDirector2× since Feb 18, 2026: 103,499 shares, avg. $44.26$4.6MJun 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDana AftabEVP, Research and Development4× since Nov 11, 2025: 169,625 shares, avg. $45.40$7.7MMay 26, 2026
SalePatrick J. HaleyEVP, Commercial3× since Nov 20, 2025: 172,154 shares, avg. $44.13$7.6MMay 20, 2026
SaleBrenda HeftiSVP and General Counsel2× since Feb 18, 2026: 25,294 shares, avg. $45.63$1.2MMay 18, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristopher J. SennerEVP and CFO2× since Feb 13, 2026: 99,796 shares, avg. $45.65$4.6MMay 18, 2026
SaleGeorge PosteDirector60,000 shares at $45.71$2.7MMay 7, 2026
SaleMaria C FreireDirector20,634 shares at $46.00$949,164May 7, 2026
SaleJulie SmithDirector106,539 shares at $44.00$4.7MFeb 18, 2026
Plus 3 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +51.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+32.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+32.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 38%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.5% a year for the price and +7.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Strong profitability and margins rest on extended Cabometyx exclusivity after the patent win, yet sparse public signals leave the durability of any moat uncertain and growth tied to one product.
Main risk: Exelixis relies almost entirely on Cabometyx for revenue and depends on partners Ipsen and Takeda for sales outside the US and Japan, so any loss of market position or partner issues could sharply reduce income.
Bull case: Successful approval and uptake of zanzalintinib plus new indications for the cabozantinib franchise could build a broader portfolio that offsets any pressure on the current product.
Bear case: If pipeline candidates face repeated delays or failures and generics arrive as planned, Exelixis could see its main revenue stream erode without adequate replacements.
Exelixis recently won a patent appeal that affirms protection for Cabometyx and pushes generic competition back by at least three years. That extends the runway for its main cash generator while zanzalintinib faces an extended FDA review into early 2027. Our models see the stock as undervalued. Will the longer exclusivity window give the pipeline time to deliver multiple new indications, or will the company still need to rely mainly on one product for growth?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 564 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score96 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+61.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)44.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets27.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)35.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)40.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B8.26× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.15× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)21.1× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exelixis Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Exelixis Inc (EXEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $110.82 versus a price of $68.71, about +61% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXEL?
Our model-based fair value for Exelixis Inc is $110.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $68.71.
What is the quality score of EXEL?
Exelixis Inc has a Quality Score of 96/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $110.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.45, optimistic scenario $144.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exelixis Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $110.82, about +61% upside versus a price of $68.71 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $56.45, optimistic scenario $144.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
Exelixis Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Exelixis Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXEL use?
Our models discount Exelixis Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Exelixis Inc that is +5.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Exelixis Inc (EXEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Exelixis Inc grew +18.6 % a year. The price currently implies +5.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Exelixis Inc (EXEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Exelixis Inc (+5.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.73 %: that much free cash flow Exelixis Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exelixis Inc it is $110.82 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $68.71. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exelixis Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, EXEL trades below its calculated fair value: price $68.71, fair value $110.82, a gap of about +61% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($68.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($110.82). For Exelixis Inc the two are $42.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exelixis Inc worth?
The market values Exelixis Inc at about $17.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $68.71; our models calculate a fair value of $110.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXEL?
Our models span a range for Exelixis Inc: cautious scenario $56.45, base $110.82, optimistic $144.07 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $68.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXEL?
Exelixis Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $110.82 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 23.2 (reported for FY2025: 24.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023, FY2025 ex one-offs: 25.5. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 8.3, P/S 7.1, EV/EBITDA 16.8.
What is the PEG ratio of EXEL?
The PEG ratio of Exelixis Inc is 2.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exelixis Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 44.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 96/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXEL from its 52-week high?
Exelixis Inc trades at $68.71, about 6% below its 52-week high of $72.75 and 70% above the low of $40.37 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $110.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exelixis Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exelixis Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $68.71, calculated fair value $110.82 (+61%), Quality Score 96/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXEL calculated?
We run Exelixis Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $110.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Exelixis Inc currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $68.71. Our model-based fair value is $110.82, about +61% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exelixis Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (96/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. A fairly wide model range ($56.45 to $144.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Exelixis Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
The market capitalisation of Exelixis Inc is $17.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exelixis Inc is 7.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
Earnings per share at Exelixis Inc are $3.34 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
The net margin of Exelixis Inc is 35.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exelixis Inc is 44.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exelixis Inc is 14.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
The operating margin of Exelixis Inc is 40.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
Revenue at Exelixis Inc is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exelixis Inc (EXEL)?
Earnings per share at Exelixis Inc are growing +23.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Exelixis Inc (EXEL) hold?
Exelixis Inc holds more cash than debt, $309M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 6, 2026