Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc stock $597, price $543, upside +10.0%, quality 81 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $177.01 – $558.88 · fair‑value band $327.40 – $794.02 · the $542.50 price screens below the $596.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated operates as a biotechnology company in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
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The company offers transformative medicines for people with serious diseases with a focus on specialty markets, such as cystic fibrosis (CF), sickle cell disease (SCD), transfusion dependent beta thalassemia (TDT), and acute pain.
It markets TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO for people with CF with at least one F508del mutation for 2 years of age and older; ALYFTREK for the treatment for people with CF 6 years of age and older; SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI for treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age and older; ORKAMBI for CF patients 1 year or older; and KALYDECO for the treatment of patients with 1 month or older who have CF with ivacaftor.
The company also develops CASGEVY for the treatment of SCD and TDT; JOURNAVX for the treatment of acute pain in adults; VX-522, a CFTR mRNA therapeutic designed to treat the underlying cause of CF, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; inaxaplin for the treatment of APOL1-mediated kidney disease, which is in single Phase 2 trial; VX-264 for treating Type 1 Diabetes; VX-670 for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1; and VX-407, a small molecule corrector for the treatment of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.
The company sells its products primarily to specialty pharmacy and distributors, wholesalers, retail pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) currently trades at $542.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $596.75, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $426.07 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $542.50 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $150.92, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $327.40 (bear) to $794.02 (bull), the price of $542.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $12.1B in FY2025 versus $7.6B in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025, compounding +14.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $139B Large · P/E ratio 31.6 · P/S ratio 11.0 · EPS (TTM) $17.17 · Net margin 35.0% · Return on equity 23.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.7% · Operating margin 38.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 91 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 10%, VRTX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$327.40Fair Value $596.75Bull$794.02
Price $542.50 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($14.58 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $10.4M and none bought.
SaleDuncan McKechnieEVP, Chief Commercial Officer4× since Feb 25, 2026: 11,521 shares, avg. $491.69$5.7MJul 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleOurania TatsisEVP, Chief Reg. & Quality Off.7× since Dec 3, 2025: 13,703 shares, avg. $475.32$6.5MJul 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJoy LiuEVP and Chief Legal Officer5× since Mar 2, 2026: 4,630 shares, avg. $460.34$2.1MJul 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCarmen BozicEVP and CMO10× since Feb 27, 2026: 24,726 shares, avg. $457.41$11.3MJun 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMark E. BunnageEVP, Chief Scientific Officer4× since Feb 11, 2026: 6,293 shares, avg. $476.68$3.0MMay 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSangeeta N. BhatiaDirector2× since Feb 13, 2026: 584 shares, avg. $458.47$267,746May 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleReshma KewalramaniCEO & President, Director40,000 shares at $493.47$19.7MFeb 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKristen AmbroseSVP & Chief Accounting Officer4× since Feb 11, 2026: 4,151 shares, avg. $476.72$2.0MFeb 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEdward Morrow Atkinson IIIEVP, Chief Technical Ops. Off.4× since Nov 17, 2025: 7,767 shares, avg. $463.32$3.6MFeb 25, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJonathan BillerEVP and Chief Legal Officer5× since Dec 3, 2025: 7,925 shares, avg. $478.98$3.8MFeb 25, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 3 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +27.9% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.46% → 39%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.5% a year for the price and +6.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business shows a moderate moat through pricing power and biotech innovation, yet thin public signals on human capital and insider activity limit durability assessment.
Main risk: Sionna Therapeutics developing complementary CFTR stabilizers might capture patients or pressure pricing in the core cystic fibrosis business that generates nearly all revenue.
Bull case: Vertex could leverage its CF expertise and pipeline to outpace Sionna while navigating assistance rules through compliant programs that still support Casgevy uptake.
Bear case: Successful Sionna data combined with restricted patient support might limit diversification and expose the CF-heavy model to share loss or slower non-CF growth.
Vertex just published strong Phase 3 results for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy in the New England Journal of Medicine, with a PDUFA date set for late November. The company still generates nearly all its revenue from cystic fibrosis medicines. Will the kidney program grow into a second major pillar, or will it stay a smaller add-on to the established franchise?
Compare Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 563 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)35.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)38.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)31.6× · Pricier than median
P/B7.43× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)11.02× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)43.4× · Pricier than median
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Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $596.75 versus a price of $542.50, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VRTX?
Our model-based fair value for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is $596.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $542.50.
What is the quality score of VRTX?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $596.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $327.40, optimistic scenario $794.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $596.75, about +10% upside versus a price of $542.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $327.40, optimistic scenario $794.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VRTX use?
Our models discount Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc that is +18.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc grew +14.2 % a year. The price currently implies +18.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (+18.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.30 %: that much free cash flow Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $596.75 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $542.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, VRTX trades below its calculated fair value: price $542.50, fair value $596.75, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VRTX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($542.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($596.75). For Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $54.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $139B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $542.50; our models calculate a fair value of $596.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VRTX?
Our models span a range for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $327.40, base $596.75, optimistic $794.02 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $542.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VRTX?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $596.75 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 32.2 (reported for FY2025: 35.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 25.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 7.4, P/S 11.0, EV/EBITDA 26.3.
What is the PEG ratio of VRTX?
The PEG ratio of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is 2.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 23.5%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VRTX from its 52-week high?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $542.50, about 3% below its 52-week high of $558.88 and 32% above the low of $409.47 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $596.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $542.50, calculated fair value $596.75 (+10%), Quality Score 81/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VRTX calculated?
We run Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $596.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $542.50. Our model-based fair value is $596.75, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($327.40 to $794.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
The market capitalisation of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is $139B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is 11.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
Earnings per share at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc are $17.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
The net margin of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is 35.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is 15.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
The operating margin of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is 38.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
Revenue at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)?
Earnings per share at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing +8.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) hold?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $1.2B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026