Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $123B
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
VRTX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $323.62 to $278.78 (−13.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −7.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 74/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($210.27 to $900.00). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $177.01 – $529.59 · fair‑value band $210.27 – $900.00 · the $484.03 price screens above the $278.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) currently trades at $484.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $278.78, implying the stock looks roughly 42.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated generated revenue of $12.2B at a net margin of 35.5%. Revenue grew 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $210.27 (bear case) to $900.00 (bull case); at $484.03, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -57% fair-value upside, at -42%, VRTX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($671.59) versus Dividend Discount ($6.47). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated operates as a biotechnology company in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company offers transformative medicines for people with serious diseases with a focus on specialty markets, such as cystic fibrosis (CF), sickle cell disease (SCD), transfusion dependent beta thalassemia (TDT), and acute pain.
Full company description
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated operates as a biotechnology company in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company offers transformative medicines for people with serious diseases with a focus on specialty markets, such as cystic fibrosis (CF), sickle cell disease (SCD), transfusion dependent beta thalassemia (TDT), and acute pain. It markets TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO for people with CF with at least one F508del mutation for 2 years of age and older; ALYFTREK for the treatment for people with CF 6 years of age and older; SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI for treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age and older; ORKAMBI for CF patients 1 year or older; and KALYDECO for the treatment of patients with 1 month or older who have CF with ivacaftor. The company also develops CASGEVY for the treatment of SCD and TDT; JOURNAVX for the treatment of acute pain in adults; VX-522, a CFTR mRNA therapeutic designed to treat the underlying cause of CF, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; inaxaplin for the treatment of APOL1-mediated kidney disease, which is in single Phase 2 trial; VX-264 for treating Type 1 Diabetes; VX-670 for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1; and VX-407, a small molecule corrector for the treatment of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. The company sells its products primarily to specialty pharmacy and distributors, wholesalers, retail pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated reported revenue of $12.1B in FY2025 versus $7.6B in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025, compounding +14.0%/yr from FY2021.
VRTX screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals Seen Well Positioned Ahead of Pipeline Catalysts, UBS Says
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals' Solid Q2, Raised Outlook Underscore Core Business Strength, RBC Says
- How Vertex Regained Its Footing On A Competitor's Bullish Report
- VRTX's Q2 Earnings Lag Estimates, Revenues Top, 2026 Sales View Raised
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 606 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
| Anthem Biosciences Limited ANTHEM | ₹777.00 | ₹196.91 | -75% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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