CSL Ltd (CSL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CSL Ltd stock A$179, price A$195, upside -8.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$91.04 – A$296.14 · fair‑value band A$123.55 – A$254.52 · the A$195.14 price screens above the A$178.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.
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CSL Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, market, and distribution of biopharmaceutical products and vaccines in Australia, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
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The company operates through CSL Behring, CSL Seqirus, and CSL Vifor segments. The CSL Behring segment manufactures, markets, and distributes plasma products, gene therapies, and recombinants.
This segment also offers therapies for people living with conditions in the immunology, hematology, cardiovascular and metabolic, respiratory, and transplant therapeutic areas.
The CSL Seqirus segment manufactures, markets, and distributes influenza related products and pandemic services to governments. The CSL Vifor segment manufactures, markets, and distributes products in the therapeutic areas of iron deficiency and nephrology. It also licenses CSL intellectual property.
CSL Limited was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
CSL Ltd (CSL) currently trades at A$195.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$178.56, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$237.15 per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$195.14 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$118.65, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$123.55 (bear) to A$254.52 (bull), the price of A$195.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
CSL Ltd reported revenue of $16.0B in FY2026 versus $10.5B in FY2022, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.6B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$93.5B (≈ $65.7B) Large · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 5.96 · EPS (TTM) A$−7.97 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin −16.4% · Return on equity −15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 114% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −8%, CSL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$123.55Fair Value A$178.56BullA$254.52
Price A$195.14 · Upside -8.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
25.1% (2021) → 25.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.9% a year for the price and −0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws moderate strength from its scale and margins in plasma therapies, yet faces weakness from sparse data on human capital alongside uncertainties in new disease expansions.
Main risk: Grifols and Takeda have gained immunoglobulin market share from CSL in the US, which could reduce volumes, intensify price pressure and compress margins in its core plasma-derived therapies business.
Bull case: By tightening commercial execution, optimising plasma collection and manufacturing yields, and focusing on higher-value rare-disease therapies, CSL could regain share in immunoglobulin and limit erosion in the Vifor portfolio.
Bear case: If rivals continue to capture share and generics accelerate in Vifor, CSL could face sustained volume and price pressure in its largest earnings contributor together with a sharply smaller contribution from the recent expansion into nephrology.
CSL is directing resources toward a partnership that broadens its focus into rare kidney and liver diseases. This extends the reach of its established plasma and biotech operations but layers on new clinical and commercial uncertainties. The tension lies in whether these external expansions deliver meaningful diversification or simply dilute attention from the core plasma collection and manufacturing strengths. Will the pipeline additions ultimately strengthen the business more than they complicate its execution?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 600 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−8.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−7.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−16.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)21.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CSL Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CSL.AU
Frequently asked questions
Is CSL Ltd (CSL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$178.56 versus a price of A$195.14, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CSL?
Our model-based fair value for CSL Ltd is A$178.56 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$195.14.
What is the quality score of CSL?
CSL Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CSL Ltd (CSL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$178.56 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$123.55, optimistic scenario A$254.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CSL Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$178.56, about −8% upside versus a price of A$195.14 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$123.55, optimistic scenario A$254.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
CSL Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does CSL Ltd pay a dividend?
CSL Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.18% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into CSL Ltd (CSL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CSL Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CSL use?
Our models discount CSL Ltd at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CSL Ltd that is +8.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CSL Ltd (CSL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CSL Ltd grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +8.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CSL Ltd (CSL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CSL Ltd (+8.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.46 %: that much free cash flow CSL Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CSL Ltd it is A$178.56 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of A$195.14. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CSL Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, CSL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$195.14, fair value A$178.56, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CSL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$195.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$178.56). For CSL Ltd the two are A$16.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CSL Ltd worth?
The market values CSL Ltd at about A$93.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is A$195.14; our models calculate a fair value of A$178.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CSL?
Our models span a range for CSL Ltd: cautious scenario A$123.55, base A$178.56, optimistic A$254.52 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price A$195.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CSL?
CSL Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Oct 25, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$178.56 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 21.4 (the reported result was a loss). Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 4.4, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CSL?
The PEG ratio of CSL Ltd is 1.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 25, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
Balance-sheet figures for CSL Ltd (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity −15.8%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CSL from its 52-week high?
CSL Ltd trades at A$195.14, about 5% below its 52-week high of A$206.01 and 114% above the low of A$91.04 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$178.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CSL Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CSL Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price A$195.14, calculated fair value A$178.56 (−8%), Quality Score 61/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CSL calculated?
We run CSL Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$178.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. CSL Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was A$195.14. Our model-based fair value is A$178.56, about −8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CSL Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$123.55 to A$254.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of CSL Ltd (CSL) come from?
Earnings per share at CSL Ltd grew +8.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.5 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CSL Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
The market capitalisation of CSL Ltd is A$93.5B (≈ $65.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CSL Ltd is 5.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
Earnings per share at CSL Ltd are A$−7.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
The dividend yield of CSL Ltd is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
The net margin of CSL Ltd is −16.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CSL Ltd is −15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CSL Ltd is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CSL Ltd (CSL)?
The operating margin of CSL Ltd is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CSL Ltd (CSL)?
Revenue at CSL Ltd is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CSL Ltd (CSL)?
Earnings per share at CSL Ltd are growing −80.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CSL Ltd (CSL) carry?
The net debt of CSL Ltd is $9.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 25, 2026