Medtronic PLC (MDT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Medtronic PLC stock $65.61, price $105, that is 37.4% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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HealthcareUS · Based in Ireland · ISIN IE00BTN1Y115
MPBroad dataNov 5, 2026
Medtronic PLC
MDT · US
Solid,but very expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 37% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 69/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +3.8 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 13.9% net margin (TTM)
Generates free cash flow
2.7% dividend yield · Sustainable
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Profit last quarter +41% vs. a year ago.
Moderate debt
Mixed vs. peers(8/14)
Moderate moat60/100
Insiders sold $6.5M (6M)
Fair value $65.61 · Strongly overvalued (−37.4%)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩AI lags in robotic surgery🚩Antitrust limits on device bundling
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.93 – $114.63 · fair‑value band $38.35 – $97.82 · the $104.84 price screens above the $65.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients in the United States, Ireland, and internationally.
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The Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software.
It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves, and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and other products.
The Neuroscience Portfolio segment offers medical devices and implants, biologic solutions, spinal cord stimulation and brain modulation systems, implantable drug infusion systems, and interventional products, as well as nerve ablation system under the Accurian name.
The segment offers its products for spinal surgeons, neurosurgeons, neurologists, pain management specialists, anesthesiologists, orthopedic surgeons, urologists, urogynecologists, and interventional radiologists, as well as ear, nose, and throat specialists, and energy surgical instruments.
The Medical Surgical Portfolio segment offers surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure and electrosurgery products, AI-powered surgical video and analytics platform, robotic-assisted surgery products, hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants, gynecology products, gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics and therapies, and therapies to treat diseases and conditions, and patient monitoring and airway management products.
The Diabetes Operating Unit segment provides insulin pumps and consumables, continuous glucose monitoring systems and sensors, and InPen, a smart insulin pen. Medtronic plc was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Galway, Ireland.
Stock analysis
Medtronic PLC (MDT) currently trades at $104.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.61, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $75.24 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $104.84 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $28.71, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $38.35 (bear) to $97.82 (bull), the price of $104.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Medtronic PLC reported revenue of $36.4B in FY2026 versus $31.7B in FY2022, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $4.8B in FY2026, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $135B Large · P/E ratio 25.8 · P/S ratio 3.60 · EPS (TTM) $4.07 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −37%, MDT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$38.35Fair Value $65.61Bull$97.82
Price $104.84 · Downside -37.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6351 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $6.5M and none bought.
SaleGeoffrey MarthaChairman and CEO, Director50,000 shares at $95.00$4.8MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael MarinaroEVP, Pres MedSurg and Americas10,420 shares at $96.00$1.0MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleHarry Skip KiilEVP & President Cardiovascular3× since Feb 19, 2026: 58,196 shares, avg. $96.36$5.6MSep 16, 2026
SaleMatthew R. WalterSVP, Chief HR Officer3,102 shares at $83.15$257,931Jul 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleGregory L SmithEVP Global Ops & Supply Chain30,000 shares at $101.95$3.1MNov 19, 2025
Plus 24 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.0% vs 4.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.1% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Medtronic's completed separation of its diabetes business enables sharper focus on cardiac ablation with positive registry results as main strength, while elevated total debt relative to equity stands as the key weak point.
Main risk: Rivals with stronger AI integration in surgical robotics such as Intuitive Surgical could reduce demand for Medtronic's Hugo system or compress margins through price competition.
Bull case: Medtronic could leverage its data assets and partnerships to enhance AI in Hugo and gain share in robotic surgery despite initial lags.
Bear case: If AI gaps persist, Medtronic might lose significant share in the growing robotic surgery market to more advanced competitors like Intuitive Surgical.
Medtronic has completed the separation of its MiniMed diabetes business. The remaining operations highlight strength in cardiac ablation with recent positive real-world registry results. Does this sharper focus on core device areas drive faster progress or heighten vulnerability to shifts in those specific markets?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 321 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−37.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)13.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.8× · Pricier than median
P/B2.73× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)3.60× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)24.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.3× · Pricier than median
PEG1.60× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)69· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)54· sector 34
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Medtronic PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDT
Frequently asked questions
Is Medtronic PLC (MDT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $65.61 versus a price of $104.84, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDT?
Our model-based fair value for Medtronic PLC is $65.61 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $104.84.
What is the quality score of MDT?
Medtronic PLC has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $65.61 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $38.35, optimistic scenario $97.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Medtronic PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $65.61, about 37% lower versus a price of $104.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $38.35, optimistic scenario $97.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
Medtronic PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $37.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Medtronic PLC pay a dividend?
Medtronic PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 2.72% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Medtronic PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +11.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDT use?
Our models discount Medtronic PLC at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Medtronic PLC that is +11.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Medtronic PLC (MDT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Medtronic PLC grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies +11.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Medtronic PLC (MDT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Medtronic PLC (+11.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.02 %: that much free cash flow Medtronic PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Medtronic PLC it is $65.61 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $104.84. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Medtronic PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MDT trades above its calculated fair value: price $104.84, fair value $65.61, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($104.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($65.61). For Medtronic PLC the two are $39.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Medtronic PLC worth?
The market values Medtronic PLC at about $135B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $104.84; our models calculate a fair value of $65.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDT?
Our models span a range for Medtronic PLC: cautious scenario $38.35, base $65.61, optimistic $97.82 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $104.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDT?
Medtronic PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $65.61 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 28.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 2.7, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 15.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MDT?
The PEG ratio of Medtronic PLC is 1.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Medtronic PLC (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDT from its 52-week high?
Medtronic PLC trades at $104.84, at its 52-week high of $104.96 and 45% above the low of $72.50 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $65.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Medtronic PLC?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, Edwards Lifesciences Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Medtronic PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $104.84, calculated fair value $65.61 (−37%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDT calculated?
We run Medtronic PLC through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $65.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Medtronic PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $104.84. Our model-based fair value is $65.61, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Medtronic PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($97.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($38.35 to $97.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Medtronic PLC (MDT) come from?
Earnings per share at Medtronic PLC grew +2.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.0 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Medtronic PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
The market capitalisation of Medtronic PLC is $135B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Medtronic PLC is 3.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
Earnings per share at Medtronic PLC are $4.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
The dividend yield of Medtronic PLC is 2.7% (payout 70.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
The net margin of Medtronic PLC is 13.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Medtronic PLC is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Medtronic PLC is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
The operating margin of Medtronic PLC is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
Revenue at Medtronic PLC is growing +13.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Medtronic PLC (MDT)?
Earnings per share at Medtronic PLC are growing +40.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Medtronic PLC (MDT) carry?
The net debt of Medtronic PLC is $26.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026