GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of GDS Holdings Ltd stock $13.05, price $22.35, that is 41.6% below the price, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.06 – $65.59 · fair‑value band $13.05 – $16.31 · the $22.35 price screens above the $13.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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GDS Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and operation of data centers in the People's Republic of China.
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It provides colocation services comprising critical facilities space, customer-available power, racks, and cooling; managed hosting services, including business continuity and disaster recovery, network management, data storage, system security, operating system, database, and server middleware services; managed cloud services; and consulting services.
The company serves cloud service providers, large Internet companies, financial institutions, telecommunications carriers and IT service providers, large domestic private sector, and multinational corporations.
GDS Holdings Limited was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS) currently trades at $22.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.05, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $22.07 per share, and 3 of the 10 models we run sit above the $22.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.01, and 7 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $13.05 (bear) to $16.31 (bull), the price of $22.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
GDS Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 11.4B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.8B CNY in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was 950M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.8B Mid · P/E ratio 10.1 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) $2.15 · Net margin 8.3% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 14.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −42%, GDS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.05Fair Value $13.05Bull$16.31
Price $22.35 · Downside -41.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.84 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$15.41$15.20$15.7071
Growth-Adj P/E$15.45$22.07$28.6967
EV/EBITDA$11.18$23.42$35.6764
All 10 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$4.96$34.61$48.5763
Lynch FV$11.77$16.81$21.8661
PEG = 1.0$11.77$16.81$21.8657
Multiples
P/E Multiple$11.49$15.33$19.1663
P/S Multiple$9.30$12.41$15.5158
P/B Multiple$31.73$42.31$52.8955
EV/EBITDA$11.18$23.42$35.6764
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$8.22$11.01$16.4354
Economic Profit
Residual Income$15.41$15.20$15.7071
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$15.45$22.07$28.6967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.7M and none bought.
SaleYixin QianExecutive VP, operation10,000 shares at $35.25$352,500Jun 10, 2026
SaleJudy Qing YeDirector37,394 shares at $36.21$1.4MJun 2, 2026
Plus 39 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
11.7% (2020) → 13.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: AI demand supports data center expansion for GDS yet capital intensity sustains low returns and negative free cash flow with scant durable advantages.
Main risk: Chinese telecom operators holding nearly half the market and hyperscalers building their own capacity could intensify price competition and erode margins on colocation services.
Bull case: By leveraging its interconnected network in Tier 1 cities and securing long-term AI take-or-pay contracts GDS could capture more demand from hyperscalers and maintain utilization despite competitive pressures.
Bear case: If telecom operators expand aggressively or regulators challenge the VIE structure GDS might face sustained margin compression or lose effective control over its core China operations.
GDS Holdings runs data centers primarily in China and raised its 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance in August on stronger AI-driven demand. Shares have nevertheless slid to new 52-week lows while some analysts moved to hold ratings. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the push into higher-utilization capacity deliver improving returns, or will funding needs and execution risks dominate?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 479 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−41.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.8% · Above median
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)30.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.32× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.44× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)3.16× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.9× · Pricier than median
PEG7.68× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)33· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)51· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)34· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.05 versus a price of $22.35, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GDS?
Our model-based fair value for GDS Holdings Ltd is $13.05 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.35.
What is the quality score of GDS?
GDS Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.05 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.05, optimistic scenario $16.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GDS Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.05, about 42% lower versus a price of $22.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.05, optimistic scenario $16.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
GDS Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does GDS Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
GDS Holdings Ltd does not currently pay a dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GDS Holdings Ltd it is $13.05 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $22.35. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is GDS Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, GDS trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.35, fair value $13.05, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GDS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.05). For GDS Holdings Ltd the two are $9.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GDS Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values GDS Holdings Ltd at about $5.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $22.35; our models calculate a fair value of $13.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GDS?
Our models span a range for GDS Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario $13.05, base $13.05, optimistic $16.31 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $22.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GDS?
GDS Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.05 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 49.4 (reported for FY2025: 30.5). Other multiples: PEG 7.7, P/B 1.4, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of GDS?
The PEG ratio of GDS Holdings Ltd is 7.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
Balance-sheet figures for GDS Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 1.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GDS from its 52-week high?
GDS Holdings Ltd trades at $22.35, about 53% below its 52-week high of $47.52 and 3% above the low of $21.77 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GDS Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GDS Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $22.35, calculated fair value $13.05 (−42%), Quality Score 35/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GDS calculated?
We run GDS Holdings Ltd through 10 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.05 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. GDS Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $22.35. Our model-based fair value is $13.05, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GDS Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of GDS Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
The market capitalisation of GDS Holdings Ltd is $5.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GDS Holdings Ltd is 0.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
Earnings per share at GDS Holdings Ltd are $2.15 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
The net margin of GDS Holdings Ltd is 8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GDS Holdings Ltd is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GDS Holdings Ltd is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
The operating margin of GDS Holdings Ltd is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
Revenue at GDS Holdings Ltd is growing +6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS)?
Earnings per share at GDS Holdings Ltd are growing +207% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS) generate?
The free cash flow of GDS Holdings Ltd is −1.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GDS Holdings Ltd (GDS) carry?
The net debt of GDS Holdings Ltd is 33.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026
