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STOCK COMPARISON

Merchant Express Class A vs Transurban: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Merchant Express Class A (001965) and Transurban (TCL) compare, as of Sep 14, 2026.

As of Sep 14, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Merchant Express Class A as the more attractively valued of the two: Merchant Express Class A trades at ¥9.80 versus a fair value of ¥11.91 (+22%), while Transurban trades at A$13.72 versus A$1.84 (-87%).
Merchant Express Class A
001965.SHE · CNY · Industrials
+22%
upside to fair value
undervalued
Price¥9.80
Fair Value¥11.91
Quality59/100
Transurban
TCL.AU · AUD · Industrials
-87%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceA$13.72
Fair ValueA$1.84
Quality49/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Merchant Express Class ATransurban
Valuation
15.0×P/E (TTM)89.4×
4.77×P/S (TTM)8.43×
0.91×P/B3.60×
16.3×EV/EBITDA22.5×
—PEG1.52×
+21.5%Fair value upside−86.6%
3.8%Dividend yield5.0%
¥0.37Dividend per shareA$0.69
Profitability
20%Operating margin36%
0.56×EBIT margin trend (5Y)1.47×
6%Return on equity5%
1%Return on assets2%
Growth
27%Revenue growth (YoY)8%
17.2%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)3.4%
13.6%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)3.5%
+3.1%Value creation/yr+14.0%
Balance & size
1.9×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)1.1×
0.65×Debt / equity2.10×
$10BMarket cap$33B
healthyGrowth qualityexpensive

Merchant Express Class A leads: 10 to 5 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Merchant Express Class Aof which business quality 57 · market factors 50 Transurbanof which business quality 45 · market factors 55
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
34
16
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
48
55
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
85
70
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
33
11
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
55
67
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
92
99
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
33
38
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
30
35
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
94
73

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyMerchant Express Class APrice ¥9.80TransurbanPrice A$13.72
DCF Models+33%above the price¥12.99-73%below the priceA$3.74
Earnings-Based+5%close to the price¥10.25-95%below the priceA$0.64
Dividend Discount+19%above the price¥11.63n/a
Multiples-23%below the price¥7.50-94%below the priceA$0.81
Asset-Based-25%below the price¥7.32-86%below the priceA$1.97
Growth DCF-8%close to the price¥8.98n/a
Economic Profit-7%close to the price¥9.16-86%below the priceA$1.90
Growth Earnings+57%above the price¥15.42-93%below the priceA$0.92
Minimum-25%below the price¥7.32-95%below the priceA$0.64
Maximum+57%above the price¥15.42-73%below the priceA$3.74
Median-1%close to the price¥9.71-90%below the priceA$1.41
Geometric mean+3%close to the price¥10.09-90%below the priceA$1.37

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Merchant Express Class A: 8 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.

Transurban: 12 of 12 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Merchant Express Class A
Price ¥9.80
Fair Value ¥11.91
Bear ¥4.24Bull ¥20.04
Transurban
Price A$13.72
Fair Value A$1.84
Bear A$1.30Bull A$3.18

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Merchant Express Class A · Industrials

Quality score59 · above median
Fair value upside+22% · above median

Transurban · Industrials

Quality score49 · below median
Fair value upside-87% · bottom 25%

Bottom line

As of Sep 14, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Merchant Express Class A as the more attractively valued of the two: Merchant Express Class A trades at ¥9.80 versus a fair value of ¥11.91 (+22%), while Transurban trades at A$13.72 versus A$1.84 (-87%).

Merchant Express Class A has the higher quality score (59/100).

See the full analysis →
Merchant Express Class A · Transurban

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.