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China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings (001965) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 67.3B CNY

CM China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 · SHE
Price¥9.52
Fair Value¥9.16
Upside-3.8%
Quality56/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 32.8% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
3.81% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/14)
Moderate moat 57/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥8.65 – ¥10.93 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Share price +2.1% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from ¥8.65 (bear) to ¥10.93 (bull), base ¥9.16. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 56/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥13.45 ¥5.65 Fair Value ¥9.16 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥5.65 – ¥13.45 · fair‑value band ¥8.65 – ¥10.93 · the ¥9.52 price screens above the ¥9.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings (001965) currently trades at ¥9.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.16, implying the stock looks roughly 3.8% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings generated revenue of 14.1B CNY at a net margin of 32.8%. Revenue grew 26.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at 39.3B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥8.65 (bear case) to ¥10.93 (bull case); at ¥9.52, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at -4%, 001965 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥5.08 ¥15.66 ¥32.05 80
Residual Income ¥8.76 ¥9.16 ¥9.44 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.1200 ¥3.72 ¥8.67 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥5.32 ¥15.20 ¥36.39 38
Owner Earnings ¥9.49 ¥24.39 ¥52.36 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥0.1200 ¥3.74 ¥8.60 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.17 ¥12.59 ¥23.55 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥4.38 ¥13.04 ¥23.40 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥1.59 ¥5.78 ¥12.22 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.47 ¥12.48 ¥25.45 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥4.61 ¥12.82 ¥25.32 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥4.61 ¥25.69 ¥35.66 54
Lynch FV ¥7.18 ¥10.25 ¥13.33 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥7.18 ¥10.25 ¥13.33 46
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥6.07 ¥12.62 ¥20.01 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥6.07 ¥10.64 ¥13.24 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥10.18 ¥13.57 ¥16.96 63
P/S Multiple ¥3.69 ¥4.92 ¥6.14 58
P/B Multiple ¥8.65 ¥11.53 ¥14.42 55
EV/EBIT ¥0.1900 ¥2.13 ¥4.08 53
EV/EBITDA ¥4.21 ¥7.50 ¥10.78 54
EV/Revenue ¥0.7400 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥5.47 ¥7.32 ¥10.93 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥5.08 ¥15.66 ¥32.05 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥0.1200 ¥3.72 ¥8.67 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥8.76 ¥9.16 ¥9.44 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥10.54 ¥15.06 ¥19.58 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥15.06) versus Growth DCF (¥3.72). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 14.1B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +26.9%
Net margin 32.8%
Return on equity 5.6%
Free cash flow 5.3B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 15.0
More key figures
Operating margin 20.1%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.6600
Dividend yield 3.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +2.7%
Net debt 39.3B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 33
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates as a highway investment and operation service provider in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Investment Operation, Transportation Technology, Smart Transportation, and Traffic Ecology segments.

Full company description

China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates as a highway investment and operation service provider in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Investment Operation, Transportation Technology, Smart Transportation, and Traffic Ecology segments. The company also offers full-process consulting and engineering technical services; and general contracting of engineering, design and construction, and project management services. In addition, it engages in technical service development; traffic information services; intelligent transportation product design; technology research and development; software development and computer network system engineering; technology transfer; business management; engineering consulting management; fund management; photovoltaic power generation; agricultural planting; highway engineering; scientific research and design; engineering supervision; production and installation; development and management of construction facilities; hotels; pipeline corridor leasing; ecological and environmental protection technology-related activities; highway engineering inspection; highway information technology development; water transport project supervision; and other technology promotion services. The company was formerly known as China Merchants Huajian Highway Investment Co.,Ltd. and changed its name to China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. in September 2016. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of China Merchants Group Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings reported revenue of ¥13.4B in FY2025 versus ¥8.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.6B in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 94/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
13.4B CNY
Latest YoY
+5.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+17.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+13.6%
Avg. growth/yr (11Y)
+16.9%
Revenue +11.6%/yr
FY21 ¥8.6B
FY22 ¥8.3B
FY23 ¥9.7B
FY24 ¥12.7B
FY25 ¥13.4B
Net income −1.9%/yr
FY21 ¥5.0B
FY22 ¥4.9B
FY23 ¥6.8B
FY24 ¥5.3B
FY25 ¥4.6B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/001965

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 66 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −4% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 33% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Below median
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.65× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.91× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 4.77× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 28 · sector 55
FUTURE 100 · sector 13
PAST 22 · sector 25
HEALTH 67 · sector 71
DIVIDEND 76 · sector 78

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings (001965) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.16 versus a price of ¥9.52, about −4% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 001965?
Our model-based fair value for China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings is ¥9.16 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥9.52.
What is the quality score of 001965?
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings has a Quality Score of 56/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings (001965)?
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 14.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 001965?
The net profit margin of China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings is about 32.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 32.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings pay a dividend?
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.93% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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