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STOCK COMPARISON

Saudi Paper Manufacturing vs UPM-Kymmene Oyj: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Saudi Paper Manufacturing (2300) and UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) compare, as of Sep 14, 2026.

As of Sep 14, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Saudi Paper Manufacturing trades at SAR 63.50 versus a fair value of SAR 19.20 (-70%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €25.77 versus €20.96 (-19%).
Saudi Paper Manufacturing
2300.SR · SAR · Consumer Staples
-70%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceSAR 63.50
Fair ValueSAR 19.20
Quality36/100
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
UPM.HE · EUR · Materials
-19%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price€25.77
Fair Value€20.96
Quality60/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Saudi Paper ManufacturingUPM-Kymmene Oyj
Valuation
32.4×P/E (TTM)23.0×
0.77×P/S (TTM)1.51×
1.16×P/B1.44×
5.0×EV/EBITDA14.4×
—PEG12.89×
−69.8%Fair value upside−18.7%
0.8%Dividend yield6.2%
SAR 0.50Dividend per share€1.50
Profitability
17%Operating margin10%
1.41×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.51×
13%Return on equity5%
5%Return on assets2%
Growth
10%Revenue growth (YoY)-5%
7.1%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-6.3%
9.8%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)2.4%
+5.5%Value creation/yr−8.3%
Balance & size
2.6×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)4.2×
0.31×Debt / equity0.28×
$671MMarket cap$14B
expensiveGrowth qualityweak
Valuation multiples (P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA) are shown but not scored here: the two companies sit in different sectors, and multiples only compare fairly between similar business models. PEG stays scored, as it relates the P/E to growth.

Saudi Paper Manufacturing leads: 7 to 4 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Saudi Paper Manufacturingof which business quality 35 · market factors 69 UPM-Kymmene Oyjof which business quality 58 · market factors 62
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
39
26
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
26
38
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
19
66
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
47
55
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
42
96
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
76
90
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
64
44
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
68
63
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
40
88

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familySaudi Paper ManufacturingPrice SAR 63.50UPM-Kymmene OyjPrice €25.77
DCF Modelsn/a-45%below the price€14.17
Earnings-Based-67%below the priceSAR 21.14-84%below the price€4.21
Dividend Discount-75%below the priceSAR 15.96-37%below the price€16.20
Multiples-49%below the priceSAR 32.24-40%below the price€15.45
Asset-Based-83%below the priceSAR 10.51-51%below the price€12.71
Growth DCFn/a-36%below the price€16.37
Economic Profit-70%below the priceSAR 18.95-69%below the price€7.88
Growth Earnings-57%below the priceSAR 27.54-54%below the price€11.81
Minimum-83%below the priceSAR 10.51-84%below the price€4.21
Maximum-49%below the priceSAR 32.24-36%below the price€16.37
Median-68%below the priceSAR 20.05-48%below the price€13.44
Geometric mean-69%below the priceSAR 19.77-56%below the price€11.42

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Saudi Paper Manufacturing: 15 of 15 models see the stock below the current price.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Saudi Paper Manufacturing
Price SAR 63.50
Fair Value SAR 19.20
Bear SAR 13.53Bull SAR 21.75
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
Price €25.77
Fair Value €20.96
Bear €15.06Bull €25.27

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Saudi Paper Manufacturing · Consumer Staples

Quality score36 · bottom 25%
Fair value upside-70% · bottom 25%

UPM-Kymmene Oyj · Materials

Quality score60 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-19% · above median

Bottom line

As of Sep 14, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Saudi Paper Manufacturing trades at SAR 63.50 versus a fair value of SAR 19.20 (-70%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €25.77 versus €20.96 (-19%).

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has the higher quality score (60/100).

See the full analysis →
Saudi Paper Manufacturing · UPM-Kymmene Oyj

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.