UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what UPM-Kymmene Oyj is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.56 – €31.82 · fair‑value band €15.06 – €25.27 · the €25.49 price screens above the €20.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. It operates through UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Adhesive Materials, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywood, and Other Operations segments.
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UPM-Kymmene Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the forest-based bioindustry worldwide. It operates through UPM Fibres, UPM Energy, UPM Adhesive Materials, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywood, and Other Operations segments. The company offers softwood, birch, and eucalyptus pulp for tissue, specialty papers, packaging papers, graphic papers, and board; sawn timber for joinery, packaging, furniture, planning, and construction industries; and wood-based renewable diesel and renewable naphtha for transport and petrochemical industry. It also generates electricity through hydro, thermal, and nuclear power plants; provides financial portfolio management services, as well as engages in forestry water protection. Further, it provides plywood and veneer products for construction, vehicle flooring, liquefied natural gas shipbuilding, parquet manufacturing, and other industrial applications; wood and wood-based biomass, and forestry services for forest investors and owners; biomedical products, such as nano-fibrillar cellulose for clinical and life science applications; wood-based lignin products for industrial use; and wood-based biochemicals for replacing fossil-based raw materials. It serves distributors, industrial users, publishers, cataloguers, retailers, printing houses, merchants, converters, and label stock manufacturers; label printers; brand owners; and producers of tissue, board, specialty, and graphic paper. The company was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.
Stock analysis
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) currently trades at €25.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €20.96, implying the stock looks roughly 21.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €15.42 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the €25.49 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €11.07, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €15.06 (bear) to €25.27 (bull), the price of €25.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj reported revenue of €9.7B in FY2025 versus €9.8B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was €480M in FY2025, compounding −21.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €13.5B · P/E ratio 25.0 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) €1.02 · Dividend yield 5.9% · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 23% fair-value upside, at −18%, UPM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €15.06Fair Value €20.96Bull €25.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 120 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "UPM-Kymmene Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UPM
Frequently asked questions
Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €20.96 versus a price of €25.49, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UPM?
Our model-based fair value for UPM-Kymmene Oyj is €20.96 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €25.49.
What is the quality score of UPM?
UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €20.96 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.06, optimistic scenario €25.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €20.96, about −18% upside versus a price of €25.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €15.06, optimistic scenario €25.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
UPM-Kymmene Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €9.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does UPM-Kymmene Oyj pay a dividend?
UPM-Kymmene Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, UPM-Kymmene Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.4 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UPM use?
Our models discount UPM-Kymmene Oyj at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For UPM-Kymmene Oyj that is +1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at UPM-Kymmene Oyj grew +2.4 % a year. The price currently implies +1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into UPM-Kymmene Oyj (+1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.09 %: that much free cash flow UPM-Kymmene Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For UPM-Kymmene Oyj it is €20.96 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of €25.49. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, UPM trades above its calculated fair value: price €25.49, fair value €20.96, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UPM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€25.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€20.96). For UPM-Kymmene Oyj the two are €4.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is UPM-Kymmene Oyj worth?
The market values UPM-Kymmene Oyj at about €13.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is €25.49; our models calculate a fair value of €20.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UPM?
Our models span a range for UPM-Kymmene Oyj: cautious scenario €15.06, base €20.96, optimistic €25.27 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price €25.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UPM?
UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €20.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 12.9, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
What is the PEG ratio of UPM?
The PEG ratio of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is 12.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
Balance-sheet figures for UPM-Kymmene Oyj (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UPM from its 52-week high?
UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €25.49, about 7% below its 52-week high of €27.55 and 25% above the low of €20.44 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €20.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to UPM-Kymmene Oyj?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Suzano S.A, Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ), Shandong Sunpaper Co, Holmen AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price €25.49, calculated fair value €20.96 (−18%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UPM calculated?
We run UPM-Kymmene Oyj through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €20.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. UPM-Kymmene Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €25.49. Our model-based fair value is €20.96, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with UPM-Kymmene Oyj right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) come from?
Earnings per share at UPM-Kymmene Oyj grew −6.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.3 %, EBIT margin −6.5 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of UPM-Kymmene Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
The market capitalisation of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is €13.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is 1.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
Earnings per share at UPM-Kymmene Oyj are €1.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
The dividend yield of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is 5.9% (payout 147%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
The net margin of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
The operating margin of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
Revenue at UPM-Kymmene Oyj is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)?
Earnings per share at UPM-Kymmene Oyj are growing +43.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) carry?
The net debt of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is €3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026