Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. stock SAR 16.19, price SAR 52.25, upside -69.0%, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 18.58 SAR – 80.39 SAR · fair‑value band 12.99 SAR – 18.10 SAR · the 52.25 SAR price screens above the 16.19 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Saudi Paper Manufacturing Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the purchase, manufacture, and distribution of paper pulp and tissue paper products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and internationally.
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It operates in Manufacturing; and Trading and Others segments.
The company offers facial tissues, kitchen towels, maxi rolls, toilet paper, interfold towels, table napkins, interfolds, underpads, pocket tissues, napkins, and industrial tissue products under the Mouchoir, Excellence, City, SPC Pro, and Jumbo Roll brands.
It is also involved in the collection, sorting, pressing, and transportation of wastepaper; destruction and shredding of archives and confidential documents; sorting and classifying; packaging; and environmental protection services.
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Company was founded in 1989 and is based in Dammam, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300) currently trades at 52.25 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16.19 SAR, 69.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 31.60 SAR per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the 52.25 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10.09 SAR, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 12.99 SAR (bear) to 18.10 SAR (bull), the price of 52.25 SAR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. reported revenue of 850M SAR in FY2025 versus 589M SAR in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was 60.5M SAR in FY2025, compounding +18.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.9B SAR (≈ $515M) Small · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 2.11 · EPS (TTM) 3.00 SAR · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 18.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −69%, 2300 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear12.99 SARFair Value 16.19 SARBull18.10 SAR
Price 52.25 SAR · Upside -69.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.07 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.7% vs 5.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 116 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−69.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.4× · Pricier than median
P/B3.33× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.11× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA10.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)74· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2300
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16.19 SAR versus a price of 52.25 SAR, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2300?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is 16.19 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 52.25 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2300?
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 16.19 SAR (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.99 SAR, optimistic scenario 18.10 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 16.19 SAR, about −69% upside versus a price of 52.25 SAR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 12.99 SAR, optimistic scenario 18.10 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 915M SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. pay a dividend?
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.96% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. it is 16.19 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of 52.25 SAR. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 2300 trades above its calculated fair value: price 52.25 SAR, fair value 16.19 SAR, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2300?
No. The price is what the market pays today (52.25 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (16.19 SAR). For Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. the two are 36.06 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. worth?
The market values Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. at about 1.9B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is 52.25 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 16.19 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2300?
Our models span a range for Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co.: cautious scenario 12.99 SAR, base 16.19 SAR, optimistic 18.10 SAR per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price 52.25 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2300?
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 16.19 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.3, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 18.6%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2300 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. trades at 52.25 SAR, about 24% below its 52-week high of 69.00 SAR and 9% above the low of 47.98 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 16.19 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Empresas CMPC S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price 52.25 SAR, calculated fair value 16.19 SAR (−69%), Quality Score 35/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2300 calculated?
We run Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 16.19 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 52.25 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 16.19 SAR, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (18.10 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is 1.9B SAR (≈ $515M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is 2.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. are 3.00 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is 1.0% (payout 16.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
The net margin of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is 12.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is 18.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
The operating margin of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
Revenue at Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is growing +19.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. are growing +262% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300) generate?
The free cash flow of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is −47.2M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. (2300) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Paper Manufacturing Co. is 528M SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 27, 2026