Arrail Group vs HCA Healthcare: Fair Value & Quality
Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Arrail Group (6639) and HCA Healthcare (HCA) compare, as of Aug 17, 2026.
As of Aug 17, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees HCA Healthcare as the more attractively valued of the two: Arrail Group trades at HK$1.83 versus a fair value of HK$0.71 (-61%), while HCA Healthcare trades at $405 versus $548 (+35%).
Arrail Group
6639.HK · HKD · Health Care
-61%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceHK$1.83
Fair ValueHK$0.71
Quality49/100
HCA Healthcare
HCA · USD · Health Care
+35%
upside to fair value
undervalued
Price$405
Fair Value$548
Quality70/100
Head-to-head numbers
Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).
Arrail GroupHCA Healthcare
Valuation
30.5×P/E (TTM)14.0×
0.61×P/S (TTM)1.06×
0.60×P/B—
4.2×EV/EBITDA7.8×
—PEG1.18×
—Dividend yield0.8%
—Dividend per share$2.94
Profitability
1%Net margin9%
3%Operating margin15%
1%Return on equity136%
1%Return on assets12%
Growth
-7%Revenue growth (YoY)4%
1.3%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)7.9%
8.9%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)8.0%
Balance & size
$131MMarket cap$81B
mixedGrowth qualityhealthy
HCA Healthcare leads: 3 to 7 metric wins.
Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
Arrail Groupof which business quality 50 · market factors 42HCA Healthcareof which business quality 66 · market factors 39
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
22
76
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
37
61
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
89
75
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
86
59
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
30
27
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
11
36
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
50
100
What the models say
The median fair value (base case) per model family, each in the currency of its trading venue. Green = above the current price, red = below.
Arrail Group
DCF ModelsHK$4.05
Earnings-BasedHK$0.67
MultiplesHK$1.33
Asset-BasedHK$2.04
Growth DCFHK$3.75
Economic ProfitHK$1.61
Growth EarningsHK$0.71
10 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.
HCA Healthcare
DCF Models$546
Earnings-Based$289
Dividend Discount$53.85
Multiples$673
Growth DCF$540
Economic Profit$419
Growth Earnings$506
6 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.
Arrail Group
Bear HK$0.65Fair Value HK$0.71Bull HK$0.92
HK$1.83 = current price (white tick)
HCA Healthcare
Bear $260Fair Value $548Bull $841
$405 = current price (white tick)
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
Arrail Group · Health Care
Quality score49 · below median
Fair value upside-61% · below median
HCA Healthcare · Health Care
Quality score70 · Top 25%
Fair value upside+35% · Top 25%
Bottom line
As of Aug 17, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees HCA Healthcare as the more attractively valued of the two: Arrail Group trades at HK$1.83 versus a fair value of HK$0.71 (-61%), while HCA Healthcare trades at $405 versus $548 (+35%).
HCA Healthcare has the higher quality score (70/100).
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 21 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.
