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Arrail Group Ltd (6639) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · HK · Market cap HK$1.0B

AG Arrail Group Ltd 6639 · HK
PriceHK$1.83
Fair ValueHK$0.7100
Upside-61.2%
Quality49/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 1.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 27/100
Evidence: High Range HK$0.6500 – HK$0.9200 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Below-average quality, and screening another 61% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$0.9200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

HK$15.76 HK$1.59 Fair Value HK$0.7100 Mar 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

53‑month range HK$1.59 – HK$15.76 · fair‑value band HK$0.6500 – HK$0.9200 · the HK$1.83 price screens above the HK$0.7100 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Arrail Group Ltd (6639) currently trades at HK$1.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$0.7100, implying the stock looks roughly 61.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Arrail Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$1.7B at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue declined 6.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.9%. Net debt stands at HK$491M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$0.6500 (bear case) to HK$0.9200 (bull case); at HK$1.83, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -61%, 6639 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$3.75 HK$4.67 HK$5.78 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.41 HK$2.83 HK$3.32 74
ROIC Compounder HK$1.36 HK$1.42 HK$1.46 72
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.71 HK$4.74 HK$6.03 38
Owner Earnings HK$4.32 HK$5.57 HK$7.15 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.41 HK$2.78 HK$3.19 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.82 HK$7.10 HK$9.68 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.42 HK$2.79 HK$3.15 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.92 HK$3.34 HK$3.81 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.32 HK$6.03 HK$8.17 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$2.94 HK$3.35 HK$3.78 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.2700 HK$0.6700 HK$0.8800 54
PEG = 1.0 HK$0.1300 HK$0.1800 HK$0.2300 46
EPV HK$1.36 HK$1.42 HK$1.46 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$0.6500 HK$0.8600 HK$1.08 63
P/S Multiple HK$0.5000 HK$0.6700 HK$0.8300 58
P/B Multiple HK$0.5000 HK$0.6700 HK$0.8300 55
EV/EBIT HK$1.78 HK$2.05 HK$2.32 53
EV/EBITDA HK$6.25 HK$8.01 HK$9.78 54
EV/Revenue HK$1.54 HK$1.79 HK$2.04 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.52 HK$2.04 HK$3.05 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.75 HK$4.67 HK$5.78 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.41 HK$2.83 HK$3.32 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$1.97 HK$1.80 HK$1.23 61
ROIC Compounder HK$1.36 HK$1.42 HK$1.46 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$0.5000 HK$0.7100 HK$0.9200 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$3.35) versus Earnings-Based (HK$0.6700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$1.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.8%
Net margin 1.3%
Return on equity 0.9%
Free cash flow HK$173M FY2025
P/E ratio 30.5 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 2.8%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0300
EPS growth (YoY) +13.2%
Net debt HK$491M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Arrail Group Limited operates dental clinics and hospitals in China. It operates through Arrail Dental and Rytime Dental segments. The company offers dental services, such as general dentistry, orthodontics, and implantology. It also engages in the wholesale of medical materials; investment holding; and hospital management business.

Full company description

Arrail Group Limited operates dental clinics and hospitals in China. It operates through Arrail Dental and Rytime Dental segments. The company offers dental services, such as general dentistry, orthodontics, and implantology. It also engages in the wholesale of medical materials; investment holding; and hospital management business. Arrail Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Arrail Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$1.7B in FY2025 versus HK$1.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$22.0M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$1.7B
Latest YoY
−3.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.9%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.7%
Revenue +2.7%/yr
FY21 HK$1.5B
FY22 HK$1.6B
FY23 HK$1.5B
FY24 HK$1.7B
FY25 HK$1.7B
Net income
FY21 −HK$599M
FY22 −HK$701M
FY23 −HK$220M
FY24 HK$17.2M
FY25 HK$22.0M

6639 screens 61% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →

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Arrail Group Ltd · Fair Value
HK$0.7100 −61%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arrail Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/6639

Peer Group

Medical Care Facilities · 266 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −61% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -7% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 30.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.60× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.61× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 26
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 4 · sector 29
HEALTH 100 · sector 90
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA $414.59 $547.67 +32%
Fresenius SE FRE €46.82 €32.15 -31%
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 235.00 SAR 112.37 SAR -52%
IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F 2.67 SGD 1.44 SGD -46%
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC $266.79 $330.25 +24%
Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 R$33.97 R$47.31 +39%
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP ₹8,565 ₹2,955 -65%
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 ¥8.87 ¥7.67 -14%
Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH ₹1,008 ₹284.87 -72%
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company BDMS 19.70 THB 18.57 THB -6%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Arrail Group Ltd (6639) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$0.7100 versus a price of HK$1.83, about −61% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 6639?
Our model-based fair value for Arrail Group Ltd is HK$0.7100 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$1.83.
What is the quality score of 6639?
Arrail Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Arrail Group Ltd (6639)?
Arrail Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 6639?
The net profit margin of Arrail Group Ltd is about 1.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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