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STOCK COMPARISON

American Financial Group vs Progressive: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how American Financial Group (AFG) and Progressive (PGR) compare, as of Aug 8, 2026.

As of Aug 8, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Progressive as the more attractively valued of the two: American Financial Group trades at $147 versus a fair value of $132 (-10%), while Progressive trades at $215 versus $253 (+17%).
American Financial Group
AFG · USD · Financials
-10%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$147
Fair Value$132
Quality63/100
Progressive
PGR · USD · Financials
+17%
upside to fair value
undervalued
Price$215
Fair Value$253
Quality63/100

Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

American Financial GroupProgressive
Valuation
13.1×P/E (TTM)11.7×
1.46×P/S (TTM)1.50×
2.41×P/B4.43×
8.9×EV/EBITDA9.3×
2.30×PEG35.19×
2.5%Dividend yield0.2%
$3.44Dividend per share$0.40
Profitability
11%Net margin13%
15%Operating margin16%
19%Return on equity38%
2%Return on assets8%
Growth
0%Revenue growth (YoY)9%
6.5%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)20.9%
7.6%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)15.5%
Balance & size
0.38×Debt / equity0.23×
$12BMarket cap$134B
mixedGrowth qualitymixed

Progressive leads: 5 to 9 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

American Financial Groupof which business quality 53 · market factors 75 Progressiveof which business quality 64 · market factors 57
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
35
61
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
42
64
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
81
81
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
18
54
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
72
37
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
91
88
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
60
47
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
81
41
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
88
81

What the models say

The median fair value (base case) per model family, each in the currency of its trading venue. Green = above the current price, red = below.

American Financial Group

DCF Models$208
Earnings-Based$111
Dividend Discount$109
Multiples$176
Asset-Based$38.87
Growth DCF$229
Economic Profit$101
Growth Earnings$166

7 of 25 models see the stock below the current price.

Progressive

DCF Models$521
Earnings-Based$285
Multiples$322
Asset-Based$34.90
Growth DCF$602
Economic Profit$243
Growth Earnings$406

4 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

American Financial Group
Bear $98.81Fair Value $132Bull $165
$147 = current price (white tick)
Progressive
Bear $189Fair Value $253Bull $316
$215 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

American Financial Group · Financials

Quality score63 · above median
Fair value upside-10% · below median

Progressive · Financials

Quality score63 · above median
Fair value upside+17% · above median

Bottom line

As of Aug 8, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Progressive as the more attractively valued of the two: American Financial Group trades at $147 versus a fair value of $132 (-10%), while Progressive trades at $215 versus $253 (+17%).

American Financial Group has the higher quality score (63/100).

See the full analysis →

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 21 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.