American Financial Group (AFG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $11.6B
American Financial Group
AFG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 10% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
- Our model range runs from $98.81 (bear) to $164.68 (bull), base $131.74. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 66/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $73.10 – $146.73 · fair‑value band $98.81 – $164.68 · the $146.73 price screens above the $131.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
American Financial Group (AFG) currently trades at $146.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $131.74, implying the stock looks roughly 10.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, American Financial Group generated revenue of $7.9B at a net margin of 11.1%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.4%. Net debt stands at $93.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $98.81 (bear case) to $164.68 (bull case); at $146.73, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -10%, AFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($205.49) versus Asset-Based ($38.87). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It operates through Property and Casualty Insurance and Other segments.
Full company description
American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It operates through Property and Casualty Insurance and Other segments. The company offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, other specialty transportation niches, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. It sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was formerly known as American Financial Group Holdings Inc and changed its name to American Financial Group, Inc. in July 1997. The company was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Financial Group reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $842M in FY2025, compounding −19.4%/yr from FY2021.
AFG screens 10% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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