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STOCK COMPARISON

Alkindo Naratama Tbk vs UPM-Kymmene Oyj: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Alkindo Naratama Tbk (ALDO) and UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) compare, as of Sep 25, 2026.

As of Sep 25, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Alkindo Naratama Tbk trades at IDR 955 versus a fair value of IDR 230 (-76%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €25.58 versus €21.04 (-18%).
Alkindo Naratama Tbk
ALDO.JK · IDR · Materials
-76%
upside to fair value
overvalued
PriceIDR 955
Fair ValueIDR 230
Quality44/100
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
UPM.HE · EUR · Materials
-18%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price€25.58
Fair Value€21.04
Quality60/100
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Head-to-head numbers

Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.

betterweakerfor reference, not scored

Alkindo Naratama TbkUPM-Kymmene Oyj
Valuation
62.3×P/E (TTM)25.1×
1.19×P/S (TTM)1.62×
2.45×P/B1.54×
13.7×EV/EBITDA15.2×
n/aPEG12.89×
−75.9%Fair value upside−17.7%
n/aDividend yield5.9%
n/aDividend per share€1.50
Profitability
6%Operating margin10%
0.51×EBIT margin trend (5Y)0.51×
4%Return on equity5%
4%Return on assets2%
Growth
11%Revenue growth (YoY)-5%
14.8%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)-6.3%
13.9%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)2.4%
−31.4%Value creation/yr−8.6%
Balance & size
2.0×Interest coverage (EBIT/interest)4.2×
0.14×Debt / equity0.28×
$144MMarket cap$15B
expensiveGrowth qualityweak

Alkindo Naratama Tbk leads: 7 to 6 metric wins.

n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Alkindo Naratama Tbkof which business quality 42 · market factors 87 UPM-Kymmene Oyjof which business quality 58 · market factors 65
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
34
26
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
80
38
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
7
66
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
50
55
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
64
96
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
61
90
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
99
47
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
99
65
Net IssuanceShare count: buybacks or dilution?
41
88

What the models say

How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.

above the price, more than 15% above close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price below the price, more than 15% below

Model familyAlkindo Naratama TbkPrice IDR 955UPM-Kymmene OyjPrice €25.58
DCF Models-21%below the priceIDR 750-42%below the price€14.71
Earnings-Based-78%below the priceIDR 210-84%below the price€4.21
Dividend Discountn/a-37%below the price€16.20
Multiples-65%below the priceIDR 333-40%below the price€15.45
Asset-Based-73%below the priceIDR 261-50%below the price€12.71
Growth DCFn/a-32%below the price€17.31
Economic Profit-76%below the priceIDR 233-69%below the price€7.88
Growth Earnings-73%below the priceIDR 254-54%below the price€11.81
Minimum-78%below the priceIDR 210-84%below the price€4.21
Maximum-21%below the priceIDR 750-32%below the price€17.31
Median-73%below the priceIDR 258-46%below the price€13.71
Geometric mean-68%below the priceIDR 306-55%below the price€11.55

Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.

Alkindo Naratama Tbk: 15 of 15 models see the stock below the current price.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj: 24 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.

Alkindo Naratama Tbk
Price IDR 955
Fair Value IDR 230
Bear IDR 178Bull IDR 277
UPM-Kymmene Oyj
Price €25.58
Fair Value €21.04
Bear €15.60Bull €25.27

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Alkindo Naratama Tbk · Materials

Quality score44 · below median
Fair value upside-76% · bottom 25%

UPM-Kymmene Oyj · Materials

Quality score60 · Top 25%
Fair value upside-18% · above median

Bottom line

As of Sep 25, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees UPM-Kymmene Oyj as the less overvalued of the two: Alkindo Naratama Tbk trades at IDR 955 versus a fair value of IDR 230 (-76%), while UPM-Kymmene Oyj trades at €25.58 versus €21.04 (-18%).

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has the higher quality score (60/100).

Open UPM-Kymmene Oyj live analysis →
Alkindo Naratama Tbk · UPM-Kymmene Oyj

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.