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PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, (ALDO) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 1.8T IDR

PA PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, ALDO · JK
Price830.00 IDR
Fair Value254.33 IDR
Upside-69.4%
Quality44/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 1.9% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 32/100
Evidence: High Range 166.12 IDR – 276.86 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price +21.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 69% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (276.86 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

865.00 IDR 209.20 IDR Fair Value 254.33 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 209.20 IDR – 865.00 IDR · fair‑value band 166.12 IDR – 276.86 IDR · the 830.00 IDR price screens above the 254.33 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, (ALDO) currently trades at 830.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 254.33 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 69.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, generated revenue of 2.2T IDR at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.0%. Net debt stands at 543B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 166.12 IDR (bear case) to 276.86 IDR (bull case); at 830.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -69%, ALDO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 289.20 IDR 284.22 IDR 250.50 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 291.00 IDR 347.50 IDR 410.47 IDR 72
Growth-Adj P/E 178.03 IDR 254.33 IDR 330.62 IDR 68
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 403.09 IDR 846.14 IDR 1,712 IDR 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 88.60 IDR 486.90 IDR 675.54 IDR 54
Lynch FV 135.53 IDR 193.61 IDR 251.69 IDR 50
PEG = 1.0 135.53 IDR 193.61 IDR 251.69 IDR 46
EPV 291.00 IDR 347.50 IDR 397.72 IDR 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 166.12 IDR 221.49 IDR 276.86 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 166.12 IDR 221.49 IDR 276.86 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 166.12 IDR 221.49 IDR 276.86 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 354.16 IDR 481.93 IDR 609.71 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 441.72 IDR 598.69 IDR 755.65 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 303.05 IDR 445.43 IDR 587.81 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 194.61 IDR 260.78 IDR 389.23 IDR 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 289.20 IDR 284.22 IDR 250.50 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 291.00 IDR 347.50 IDR 410.47 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 178.03 IDR 254.33 IDR 330.62 IDR 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (846.14 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (193.61 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.2T IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.8%
Net margin 1.9%
Return on equity 4.0%
Free cash flow −72.6B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 44.4
More key figures
Operating margin 5.7%
EPS (TTM) 15.32 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) +87.0%
Net debt 543B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 89
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 41
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells conversion paper products in Indonesia. The company operates through Paper, and Chemical and Others segments.

Full company description

PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells conversion paper products in Indonesia. The company operates through Paper, and Chemical and Others segments. The company offers papers for paper core, paper box, paper bag, hexa wrap, paper cup, paper bowl, paper tube, honeycomb board, and edge protector industries, as well as kraft liners, eco boards, and core boards. It manufactures and sells water-based polymers for wood, paint, and roof coating industries under the ALFACHEM, ALFABOND, and ALFACOAT trademarks; engages in trading and industrial manufacturing; operates as an agent and distributor of dyes and textile chemicals; and provides logistics services. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Bandung, Indonesia. PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Golden Arista International.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, reported revenue of 2.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.5T IDR in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was 35.1B IDR in FY2025, compounding −17.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.1T IDR
Latest YoY
+14.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.9%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.3%
Revenue +9.8%/yr
FY21 1.5T IDR
FY22 1.4T IDR
FY23 1.7T IDR
FY24 1.9T IDR
FY25 2.1T IDR
Net income −17.5%/yr
FY21 75.9B IDR
FY22 65.3B IDR
FY23 2.7B IDR
FY24 −8.6B IDR
FY25 35.1B IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −7.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.8 pp

of which total revenue +14.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −12.5 pp

EBIT margin −6.7 pp
Tax rate +1.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −4.2 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

ALDO screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Klabin S.A →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALDO

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 110 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −69% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Revenue growth 11% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.14× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 44.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.75× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.84× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.9× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 20
FUTURE 54 · sector 8
PAST 16 · sector 13
HEALTH 93 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Klabin S.A KLBN11 R$17.58 R$3.89 -78%
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €23.45 €15.47 -34%
Suzano S.A SUZB3 R$41.70 R$138.01 +231%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB kr 103.00 kr 49.40 -52%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥14.13 ¥17.29 +22%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 305.40 kr 217.72 -29%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$7.55 HK$8.73 +16%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,078 CLP 1,269 CLP +18%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥21.09 ¥21.06 -0%
Billerud AB BILL kr 68.70 kr 48.60 -29%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, (ALDO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 254.33 IDR versus a price of 830.00 IDR, about −69% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALDO?
Our model-based fair value for PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, is 254.33 IDR (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 830.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ALDO?
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, (ALDO)?
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2T IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALDO?
The net profit margin of PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, is about 1.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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