PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, (ALDO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 1.8T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +21.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (276.86 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 209.20 IDR – 865.00 IDR · fair‑value band 166.12 IDR – 276.86 IDR · the 830.00 IDR price screens above the 254.33 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, (ALDO) currently trades at 830.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 254.33 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 69.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, generated revenue of 2.2T IDR at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.0%. Net debt stands at 543B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 166.12 IDR (bear case) to 276.86 IDR (bull case); at 830.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -69%, ALDO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (846.14 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (193.61 IDR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells conversion paper products in Indonesia. The company operates through Paper, and Chemical and Others segments.
Full company description
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells conversion paper products in Indonesia. The company operates through Paper, and Chemical and Others segments. The company offers papers for paper core, paper box, paper bag, hexa wrap, paper cup, paper bowl, paper tube, honeycomb board, and edge protector industries, as well as kraft liners, eco boards, and core boards. It manufactures and sells water-based polymers for wood, paint, and roof coating industries under the ALFACHEM, ALFABOND, and ALFACOAT trademarks; engages in trading and industrial manufacturing; operates as an agent and distributor of dyes and textile chemicals; and provides logistics services. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Bandung, Indonesia. PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Golden Arista International.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Alkindo Naratama Tbk, reported revenue of 2.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.5T IDR in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was 35.1B IDR in FY2025, compounding −17.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +14.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −12.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ALDO screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Klabin S.A →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 110 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.58 | R$3.89 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.45 | €15.47 | -34% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$41.70 | R$138.01 | +231% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 103.00 | kr 49.40 | -52% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥14.13 | ¥17.29 | +22% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 305.40 | kr 217.72 | -29% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.55 | HK$8.73 | +16% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,078 CLP | 1,269 CLP | +18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.09 | ¥21.06 | -0% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 68.70 | kr 48.60 | -29% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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