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STOCK COMPARISON

Astrana Health vs HCA Healthcare: Fair Value & Quality

Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how Astrana Health (ASTH) and HCA Healthcare (HCA) compare, as of Aug 10, 2026.

As of Aug 10, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees HCA Healthcare as the more attractively valued of the two: Astrana Health trades at $35.76 versus a fair value of $19.58 (-45%), while HCA Healthcare trades at $413 versus $555 (+34%).
Astrana Health
ASTH · USD · Health Care
-45%
upside to fair value
overvalued
Price$35.76
Fair Value$19.58
Quality45/100
HCA Healthcare
HCA · USD · Health Care
+34%
upside to fair value
undervalued
Price$413
Fair Value$555
Quality70/100

Head-to-head numbers

Green value = the better side for that row (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper).

Astrana HealthHCA Healthcare
Valuation
75.6×P/E (TTM)12.5×
0.65×P/S (TTM)1.06×
2.93×P/B—
17.8×EV/EBITDA7.8×
—PEG1.18×
—Dividend yield0.8%
—Dividend per share$2.94
Profitability
1%Net margin9%
3%Operating margin15%
6%Return on equity136%
4%Return on assets12%
Growth
56%Revenue growth (YoY)4%
40.6%Avg. growth/yr (3Y)7.9%
53.8%Avg. growth/yr (5Y)8.0%
Balance & size
1.27×Debt / equity—
$2BMarket cap$81B
healthyGrowth qualityhealthy

HCA Healthcare leads: 4 to 6 metric wins.

Dash = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.

Quality in detail

The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.

Astrana Healthof which business quality 48 · market factors 67 HCA Healthcareof which business quality 66 · market factors 46
ProfitabilityMargins and returns on capital today
37
76
Quality GrowthAre margins and returns improving?
35
61
CashflowEarnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
62
62
Fin. StrengthBalance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
49
39
InvestmentDisciplined investing over empire-building
45
75
Low VolatilityCalm price path (market factor)
35
59
MomentumPrice trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
84
38
52W MomentumDistance to the 52-week high (market factor)
76
44
Net IssuanceBuybacks instead of dilution
56
100

What the models say

The median fair value (base case) per model family, each in the currency of its trading venue. Green = above the current price, red = below.

Astrana Health

DCF Models$32.45
Earnings-Based$15.87
Dividend Discount$2.60
Multiples$9.63
Asset-Based$10.53
Growth DCF$38.28
Economic Profit$6.41
Growth Earnings$21.07

21 of 26 models see the stock below the current price.

HCA Healthcare

DCF Models$546
Earnings-Based$289
Dividend Discount$53.85
Multiples$673
Growth DCF$540
Economic Profit$419
Growth Earnings$506

6 of 23 models see the stock below the current price.

Scenario ranges

From our cautious bear case to the optimistic bull case. The white tick is the current price: left of fair value means room to run.

Astrana Health
Bear $19.58Fair Value $19.58Bull $22.45
$35.76 = current price (white tick)
HCA Healthcare
Bear $270Fair Value $555Bull $841
$413 = current price (white tick)

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Ranked within their sector

Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.

Astrana Health · Health Care

Quality score45 · below median
Fair value upside-45% · below median

HCA Healthcare · Health Care

Quality score70 · Top 25%
Fair value upside+34% · Top 25%

Bottom line

As of Aug 10, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees HCA Healthcare as the more attractively valued of the two: Astrana Health trades at $35.76 versus a fair value of $19.58 (-45%), while HCA Healthcare trades at $413 versus $555 (+34%).

HCA Healthcare has the higher quality score (70/100).

See the full analysis →
Astrana Health · HCA Healthcare

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A model-based valuation snapshot from 21 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.