Astrana Health, Inc (ASTH) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.3B
Astrana Health, Inc
ASTH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $10.11 to $19.58 (+93.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −22.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band ($19.58 to $22.45), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.16 – $119.45 · fair‑value band $19.58 – $22.45 · the $35.76 price screens above the $19.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Astrana Health, Inc (ASTH) currently trades at $35.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.58, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Astrana Health, Inc generated revenue of $3.5B at a net margin of 0.9%. Revenue grew 55.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at $649M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.58 (bear case) to $22.45 (bull case); at $35.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -45%, ASTH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($27.97) versus Economic Profit ($2.05). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement.
Full company description
Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. Its physician network includes primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. The company serves patients primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Astrana Health, Inc reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $774M in FY2021, a compound +42.4%/yr. Reported net income was $22.5M in FY2025, compounding −24.4%/yr from FY2021.
ASTH screens 45% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Astrana Health (ASTH) Stock Looks Fully Valued Following Its 87% Run
- 2 Reasons to Like ASTH and 1 to Stay Skeptical
- Astrana Health, Inc. Schedules 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results Release and Conference Call
- Astrana Health Strengthens Leadership Team to Accelerate Long-Term Growth
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 262 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $378.85 | $554.93 | +46% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €41.73 | €32.15 | -23% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 235.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | -52% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.58 SGD | 1.44 SGD | -44% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $194.91 | $338.05 | +73% |
| Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 | R$36.01 | R$47.31 | +31% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $231.61 | $255.97 | +11% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,955 | ₹2,955 | -67% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS | $24.68 | $45.60 | +85% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.68 | ¥7.67 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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