MP Materials vs Vale SA: Fair Value & Quality
Both stocks run through our valuation models. Here is how MP Materials (M2PM34) and Vale SA (VALE) compare, as of Sep 24, 2026.
Head-to-head numbers
Green is the better side of a row, red the weaker one (for valuation multiples: lower = cheaper). Grey rows are for reference only and are not scored.
betterweakerfor reference, not scored
Vale SA leads: 1 to 4 metric wins.
n/a = not meaningfully computable, for example with negative equity.
Quality in detail
The quality score, broken down into the same factor families as on the stock page, 0 to 100 per family.
What the models say
How far the median fair value (base case) per model family sits from the current price, in percent. The amount in the currency of the trading venue is shown underneath.
▲above the price, more than 15% above ●close to the price, 85% to 115% of the price ▼below the price, more than 15% below
| Model family | MP MaterialsPrice BRL 51.24 | Vale SAPrice $14.19 |
|---|---|---|
| DCF Models | n/a | ▼-23%below the price$10.94 |
| Earnings-Based | n/a | ▼-38%below the price$8.84 |
| Dividend Discount | n/a | ▼-16%below the price$11.85 |
| Multiples | n/a | ▼-29%below the price$10.12 |
| Asset-Based | ▼-82%below the priceBRL 9.00 | ▼-63%below the price$5.29 |
| Growth DCF | n/a | ▼-19%below the price$11.53 |
| Economic Profit | n/a | ●-2%close to the price$13.88 |
| Growth Earnings | n/a | ▼-44%below the price$8.01 |
| Minimum | ▼-82%below the priceBRL 9.00 | ▼-63%below the price$5.29 |
| Maximum | ▼-82%below the priceBRL 9.00 | ●-2%close to the price$13.88 |
| Median | ▼-82%below the priceBRL 9.00 | ▼-26%below the price$10.53 |
| Geometric mean | ▼-82%below the priceBRL 9.00 | ▼-32%below the price$9.70 |
Minimum, maximum, median and geometric mean refer to the family values in this table. Geometric because deviations are ratios: half the price and twice the price average to 100%, not 125%.
MP Materials: 1 of 1 models see the stock below the current price.
Vale SA: 18 of 24 models see the stock below the current price.
Scenario ranges
From our cautious bear scenario to the optimistic bull scenario. The white tick is the current price (value above it), the green tick the fair value (value below it): if the price sits left of the fair value, there is room to rise.
Compare two other stocks
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Ranked within their sector
Where each stock sits within its sector peer group. Band = middle 50% of peers, tick = median, dot = this stock.
MP Materials · Materials
Vale SA · Materials
Bottom line
As of Sep 24, 2026, Fair Value Calculator sees Vale SA as the less overvalued of the two: MP Materials trades at BRL 51.24 versus a fair value of BRL 19.89 (-61%), while Vale SA trades at $14.19 versus $9.87 (-30%).
Vale SA has the higher quality score (55/100).
Open Vale SA live analysis →More comparisons
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A model-based valuation snapshot from 26 models. Values change with price and fundamentals; the date shown above applies.