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MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of MP Materials Corp. BRL 19.89, price BRL 51.24, upside -61.2%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · BR

MM Thin data Sep 24, 2026

MP Materials Corp.

M2PM34 · SA

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value R$19.89 · Strongly overvalued (−61%)
!Quality 32/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −19.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -20.5% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 11/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$109.00 R$12.07 Fair Value R$19.89 Feb 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

56‑month range R$12.07 – R$109.00 · fair‑value band R$13.12 – R$24.86 · the R$51.24 price screens above the R$19.89 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

MP Materials Corp., together with its subsidiaries, produces rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere. It operates in two segments, Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing facility located near Mountain Pass, San Bernardino County, California.

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MP Materials Corp., together with its subsidiaries, produces rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere. It operates in two segments, Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing facility located near Mountain Pass, San Bernardino County, California. The Magnetics segment produces magnetic precursor products, including NdPr metal; and manufactures NdFeB permanent magnets. MP Materials Corp. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Stock analysis

MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34) currently trades at R$51.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$19.89, implying the stock looks roughly 157.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: R$13.12 (bear) to R$24.86 (bull), the price of R$51.24 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

MP Materials Corp. reported revenue of $275M in FY2025 versus $528M in FY2022, a compound −19.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$85.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap R$9.1B (≈ $1.8B) · P/S ratio 31.2 · EPS (TTM) R$−2.03 · Net margin −31.2% · Return on equity −4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% · Operating margin −7.9% · Revenue (TTM) R$348M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −61%, M2PM34 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$13.12 Fair Value R$19.89 Bull R$24.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) R$6.72 R$9.00 R$13.44 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$6.72 R$9.00 R$13.44 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 29
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 5
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 42
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
62.1% (2022) → −54.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

M2PM34 screens 158% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 459 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −61% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −20% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 119% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.40× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.74× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 5.12× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)80 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A VALE $14.19 $9.87 −30%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.81 ¥21.74 +22%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$16.85 A$34.49 +105%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹590.50 ₹649.55 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%

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MP Materials Corp. · Fair Value
R$19.89 −158%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MP Materials Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/M2PM34

Frequently asked questions

Is MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$19.89 versus a price of R$51.24, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of M2PM34?
Our model-based fair value for MP Materials Corp. is R$19.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$51.24.
What is the quality score of M2PM34?
MP Materials Corp. has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$19.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$13.12, optimistic scenario R$24.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MP Materials Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$19.89, about −61% upside versus a price of R$51.24 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$13.12, optimistic scenario R$24.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
MP Materials Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$348M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MP Materials Corp. it is R$19.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$51.24. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MP Materials Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, M2PM34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$51.24, fair value R$19.89, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of M2PM34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$51.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$19.89). For MP Materials Corp. the two are R$31.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MP Materials Corp. worth?
The market values MP Materials Corp. at about R$9.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$51.24; our models calculate a fair value of R$19.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about M2PM34?
Our models span a range for MP Materials Corp.: cautious scenario R$13.12, base R$19.89, optimistic R$24.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$51.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
Balance-sheet figures for MP Materials Corp. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.2%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is M2PM34 from its 52-week high?
MP Materials Corp. trades at R$51.24, about 55% below its 52-week high of R$114.00 and 85% above the low of R$27.72 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$19.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MP Materials Corp.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Fortescue Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MP Materials Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$51.24, calculated fair value R$19.89 (−61%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of M2PM34 calculated?
We run MP Materials Corp. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$19.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MP Materials Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was R$51.24. Our model-based fair value is R$19.89, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MP Materials Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$24.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (R$13.12 to R$24.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of MP Materials Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
The market capitalisation of MP Materials Corp. is R$9.1B (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MP Materials Corp. is 31.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
Earnings per share at MP Materials Corp. are R$−2.03. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
The net margin of MP Materials Corp. is −31.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MP Materials Corp. is −4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MP Materials Corp. is 1.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
The operating margin of MP Materials Corp. is −7.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34)?
Revenue at MP Materials Corp. is growing +119% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34) generate?
The free cash flow of MP Materials Corp. is −R$328M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MP Materials Corp. (M2PM34) carry?
The net debt of MP Materials Corp. is R$626M (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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